Romero is swinging at 35% of the O-Zone pitches and 73% of the Zoners. MLB average is 29% and 65%. He's aggressive. He makes contact at 56% and 81%. Averages are 65% and 87%. Being overly aggressive isn't helping him. He's got an almost 15% swinging strike rate, average is 9.3%
He's walked one time.
Goodness knows I like the kid. I'm out on that limb. And goodness knows we need some RH mashing. I've said all along that he would learn to walk a bit. It will soon be time to demonstrate that.
He's hitting .130 when he's ahead in the count, .172 when it is even and .333 when the pitcher is ahead. Pretty weird.
Both of his homers came at 0-1.
But at 2-2 or 3-2 he's 1-24. He's 2-9 at 1-2. A bit of a "protect the plate" philosophy at 2 strikes might be called for.
He clubs sliders. Cutters club him.
And he can hit the ball hard.
There's stuff to like and lots of work to do. I'm still thinking he eventually becomes a Viciedo type, a streaky .265-.305-.425.
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From Ask Bill:
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1. When you see a sabermetrician scoffing at the idea of using Spring Training to make roster decisions -- that's what percentage of them? -- then, Know that the sabermetrician has a whale of a lot to learn.
There, I put that rather kindly, don't you think? :: winning smile :: I didn't say "know that he's grovelling in ignorance" or "know that you're on the wrong website" or any of that rude stuff.
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2. What we need, is a Mariners site that deals with the 71 at-bats, and also with the peripheral information, like the orgs do. Know where we could find one? :: innocent blank look ::
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3. "Tighten the bolts" - that's a baseball scout-y phrase. It reminds of the other night when Stefen Romero lined a jam pitch to RF and Blowers said "that's good hitting."
This drives 99% of baseball fans crazy, when somebody lines a base hit, and the analyst -- notice it is never the announcer; it's always the ex-player -- calls it "good hitting." Well, obviously it's good hitting, if he got a hit, right?
But what the analyst means by that is --- > the pitcher presented a difficult pitch, in a difficult area, and the hitter had the technically correct reaction to it.
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Stefen Romero has looked good technically, the way he reacts to various pitches, the jam, the low-away slider, the ladder pitch, the change curve, etc.. One of yer all-time great 80 OPS+ type outfielders, I tell ya. But ... the last 14 days he is slugging .475.
Remember, Bill James pegged the league adjustment at ~90 games. That's when any given player starts to have a sense of what he'll be seeing. Romero is at 27 games.
Romero is no guarantee, but SSI thoroughly endorses the idea of seeing where he is, two weeks after the All-Star Break.
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James Jones has one of those approaches that almost defies the need for technical virtuosity. He gets low, sticks his nose right into the strike zone, swings on a flat plane with arms only, and tries to get the top half of the ball.
Jones is no guarantee, but -- especially in view of the advanced outfield metrics, such as at BIS -- SSI is thoroughly in favor of giving Jones a full calendar month. From here.
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35 at-bats in, he's hitting .367/.441/.500 ... the EYE ratio is 4:4. Precious few Mariners come up and start with that EYE ratio.
In fact, I'd like to database that: AAA hitters who were thrown into the mosh pit MIDSEASON, with the pitchers sharp as tacks, with the pitchers routinely firing 2-hit shutouts at the Seattle Mariners I might add, and the batter had a 1.0+ EYE ratio.
I'll bet you'd get a whale of an above-average group of rookies. Matt?
BABVA,
Dr D
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Comments
But I'll Viciedo as a Romero upside purchase. Good call.
I just have trouble putting any faith in a guy who walks once a month. There have only been 11 guys who've walked fewer than 20 times and struck out more than 90 in a season since 1960. You know what's funny? There's some good players on that list.
Sammy Sosa's age-21 season.
Willie freakin' Stargell struck out 172 times against 37 walks his first two years combined, then became a freak.
Tony Armas (senior, not junior), when he led the league in HRs.
Armas is about as good as you can get with the never-walks model if you don't hit .300. He had a bunch of power, not a great batting average, and disdained walks his whole career.
Delmon Young and Wily Mo Pena are on that list too.
Nothing says Romero is doomed to his pro-rated 93K / 4 BB season, but he's gotta start getting on base. You can have a year where you only walk 15, 20 times, but if you make a career out of it, then it won't be a starting career.
Like I said, Laynce Nix. Let's do better than that, Romero.
I watched James press in the minors, try to force the issue, and get himself into trouble down in some hitter-friendly leagues, but apparently he learned from that experience. I thought he'd struggle on his big-league transition, but talk about playing within yourself and with a total lack of greed. It's been an impressive few games.
Lotta joy and hustle in his game, and when you can hit a buncha doubles while choked up on the bat, feel free to do so. He didn't used to choke up, so I'm not sure when he started doing that. Somebody should ask him. It's definitely working for him right now, though.
~G
one of my favorite Mariners. He produces the goods, is glad to be here and knows how to smile. What's not to like?
Goodness knows I've read enough articles over there looking down and scoffing at those who are happy with good outcomes that result from bad process. Process, process, process, goes the lecture. So while 71 outcomes certainly isn't enough to judge a players ability it certainly can reveal to a good scout said players process in his approach.
"Process" is a good comeback to a "smarter than you" saber dood's complaint about sample size.
Love every Bill James quote you include Doc.