For his career, Martinez posted a .297 average, .407 OBP and .479 SLG in March/April regular season games (and was similarly less effective in September)...but that's not a player-type thing. That's an all-players thing. Across the whole of major league baseball, the HR Rate is half in April was it is in July, the wRC+ is 15 points lower (mostly from SLG). The runs scoring is about 0.5 R/G/side lower. That's the whole of the game...from 1901 to 2013.
Of course, Robinson Cano has now gotten to play half of May.
And still isn't hitting.
But the weather took longer than usual to heat up this year, so the April hangover has lasted longer game-wide than it normally does. The cold weather does suppress run scoring and you can bet all the hitters will improve with the warming weather.
BUT...the expected bounce is like 20 rWC+ points...Cano's a lot worse than that relative to his norms.
There was a study someone did once that proved that players hit statistically significantly worse in their first season with a new club when they had been with their previous club for longer than 3 seasons. I don't think Cano feels comfortable here yet. He's calm and relaxed...but not in his happy place yet. Give it time...I'm not saying he won't hit...but don't be surprised if this is a bad year overall for Cano. And don't be surprised if next year, he's back to his old self. I don't think his power drain is just the bad weather, though...I think it's a bit larger than that.
.
Sez BSR,
bsr: Not just the 1 HR but he also only has 8 doubles. His whole career you could take 40+ doubles to the bank no question, and we're looking at 32-33 at this pace. Just saying. Would be interested to hear the SSI brain trust on this topic...
And DaddyO,
I've seen Yankee fans post that it is not unusual for Cano to get off to slow starts. That said, Cano's lack of power so far has been disconcerting to me. What Tacoma Rain says is reasonable, that Cano Is having to make some adjustments moving from a top offense and a hitter friendly ballpark for LHBs to a struggling offense and a pitcher friendly park. If Cano turns into a .300-hitter with average power at age 31 then this franchise is saddled with a seriously bad contract. No reason at this point to think this is the case. It just bears watching.
Also, I saw some intereview where Cano himself said:
- I ain't worried
- Yeah, I'd like to be hitting better
- I'm gonna just relax, do what I do, and the ballclub will be fine
Cano should be some kind of coin-op machine that spits out your fortune for a token. "You will meet a dark stranger who will bring glad tidings."
.
Edgar
Ron Fairly, sometime along right now when we started getting some sunny weather, would watch Edgar hit two doubles in a game. He'd gleefully chime in the same mantra every year ... er, two or three times in late May every year: "WHEN THE WEATHER WARMS UP .... SO DOES EDGAR'S BAT!!!" The first two times were fine. After that...
Indeed, Edgar over the course of a 60-year-long career, over 100,000 plate appearances, SLG'ged about 84 points lower in April than he did in March.
A low-throttle Edgar was still good, batting .297 with a .479 SLG, but then once May hit, he'd start blasting for .423 for a .563 SLG. That, again, is averaged over a very long term ....
- April 1994 he didn't even play much, then hit well in May.
- April 1998 he hit .265 with a .439 SLG and if he'd been Ichiro we'd have benched him. Then he slugged .594 (!) in May.
- etc.
.....
You could find a billion guys from hot-weather climates who didn't care for drizzly Aprils in Seattle. SSI is not just nooding here. Seattle in the spring --- > is a lousy place to play --- > for guys from the Equator. For YOU, raised in Seattle, it would be kinda like going up and playing a month of baseball in Nome. Or something.
Here's a place in the Dominican in April
Here's a place in Seattle in April
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Cano
That said, great hitters like Cano and Edgar weren't exactly Miller Time when they did have their slow months. It's one thing to hit .310, another thing to struggle the way that M's usually do.
Yankees fans are right that Cano prefers hot weather -- he has three calendar months with .4xx slugging averages and three calendar months with .5zz slugging averages. The three months with slugging all occur in the second half -- when he's playing out his 162 games.
Cano tends to carry his cold-weather sniffles a bit longer than Edgar, running his worst SLG in May, that being .452. (The Mariners could use a few more batters -- ::coughsmoakcough:: whose worst month is .452 SLG). That's talking trends, which establish principles. You'll find individual years that look worrisone.
In 2012, for example, Cano slugged .389 in April ... but SLG'd .606 in May and .730 in June.
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The Comparison
There was a good Edgar and a great Edgar. "Good Edgar" had a "repeatable product." He controlled the zone in good times in bad, he took pitches on a line all over the field, he did 8,000 good things ... and he did them every game of his life.
"Great Edgar" was anticipating the pitches and putting extra hurt on them.
From a scouting point of view, I don't think you'll ever find a player who controlled the whole zone, with as much authority, as Robinson Cano does. If you can't get Edgar, then Robinson Cano gives you just about the same viewing experience.
And: Cano does it from 2B, leaving your DH spot open for the legit 40-homer player that you should, with your new TV deal, have purchased.
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The Scouting Eye
You could say that Safeco's going to bite him, but it definitely has not looked like that to us. What it looks like -- all things carefully considered --
- He's seen some tough pitching
- He's been pitched around a bit
- He has not been on a hot roll (notably the drag-your-bat doubles into the corner)
To me, he looks just like Edgar looked, when Edgar was "mechancially good" rather than "otherwordly."
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M's Offense
The Mariners bought themselves one great hitter, for 1/4 Billion, and then they stopped trying to get better. They flew home and took bows, Look How Legit We Are. They deserved (and they got) fierce criticism for that. End of story.
The Mariners' offense is below average: it's not terrible, like it was in past years, and it's not solid, like it might be in July. It's just mediocre to below average.
The Mariners could have added a second legitimate rainmaker, and they could have added a third hitter would would make a nice contribution. They massaged their TV product, said "good enough," and left it at that.
Lousy org's blame their best players. You want to trade me Robinson Cano in fantasy baseball, tell me where your league is.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
...I absolutely agree with your last comment that the folks blaming Cano for a sputtering offense are targeting the one guy who is assuredly NOT the problem. He's been the only guy getting on base consistently at all. Unless you count the recently arrived James Jones. :)
It's pretty silly to target Cano for criticism with this team...the offense has lots of potential but is horrendously unreliable and prone to bouts of total futility for no apparent reason We know they're all capable of being good hitters...most of them aren't special hitters...but good solid ones, they should all be. So why they go into the deep freeze and start changing their approaches when they've seen with their own eyes what the unhurried, patient, balanced at bats get them is beyond me. Chalk it up to continued youth and inexperience...and perhaps to bad field management.
And this Jones kid is growing on me. Almonte who?
Kind of cool stuff: http://www.hardballtimes.com/temperature-effects/
(Other studies have shown that cold baseballs travel less distance than warm ones, although it may only be 1%--or so-- at game temperatures)
We all understand that cold air is denser and dense air impedes the ball as it travels. Cold air will favor the defense. When I used to be a golfer, I know that on a 50 degree day I had to hit more club than I did on a 80 degree day. Even if the impact is only a few percent in golf-baseball carry, 4% of a 350 ft fly ball that would normally carry the fence is now just to the warning track.
From the article linked above:
1. Strikeouts go up in colder temps (denser air means more ball movement)
2. Walks go up, too.
3. Homers go down.
Which all combines to make sense of Matt's info, above.
But Cano at .739 isn't the problem with the offense.
Almonte, MIller and Corey Hart are (or were, in the Almonte sense). Hart has hit exactly 1 homer and 3 doubles since April 17th--23 games. Miller has 6 hits and 2 doubles over that span. .
Romero is getting there. Hey, I was on his bandwagon and I asked for a 20-25 game run with him in RF and he's had about 10 or so, basically. But, basically (again) he needs to learn to walk right now. He's getting himself out by swinging at too many pitches both in and out of the zone. When he's poaching pitches he looks like a MLB hitter. Not so without that.
A future problem may well be Ackley. I've long argued that his value exists when he hits for power, but if he doesn't he's a problem. If you take those two homers he hit the other day and turn them to singles, his Slg. drops to .388 and his OPS to .716. To tell you the truth, that isn't enough for a LF on skates.If those had been singles, he would be on pace for 24 doubles, 4 triples and 8 homers for the year. It doesn't cut the mustard if he's not a .280-.360 type of guy.
Without the homers, we need an upgrade. He's hit 3 homers in his last 16 AB's. I suggest the 1 he hit in his previous 81 AB's is way more in line with his 22 in 1324 career AB's (1.6%) coming into the year.
Most of his problems remain vL, however. There is a bit of gold in his vR numbers. vL he hasn't walked in 40 PA's and is OPS'ing .625. This is only a bit worse than his career vL numbers. vR, however, he's at .276-.364-.474. All 4 of his homers have come vR. Even if you turn those last two homers into singles, he's still a very productive vR hitter.
If his vR performance is a real plateau leap, then he's something pretty valuable, 2/3 of the time. If his vR #'s morve to career-type levels over the next 40 games, then it's time to find a new fulltime LF.
Well, it probably is now, but I'll give him his platoon dues.
BTW, Smoak's .212-.246-.364 (just a smidge below his career numbers) vL aren't helping.
All the same,
Scott Van Slyke or Allan Craig, anyone?
Montero for Gillespie, please.
moe