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What's a readable, as opposed to a linkage? Your readables are USDA-SSI certified fresh. If you're stalling before work, these will work.
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Jeff Sullivan's "Kyle Seager: Core Mariner" has the usual wit and wisdom, except since it's not at Fangraphs, you don't get the thread comments blasting him for deploying wit and wisdom. He points out:
As far as Seager and the Back Leg Specials, here's a freebie readable: Some SSI Best Bet shtick from April 2012, poached from an epic Bill James recommendation on Dustin Pedroia. We assure you it's readable, too. As you know, we live to serve.
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Whether they'll admit it or not, people like Jack Zduriencik are very, very proud of people like Kyle Seager. Zduriencik didn't just concur with the draft pick. He pushed Seager to the forefront, like he's doing with Brad Miller, Mike Zunino, Dustin Ackley and ... oh.
The last time a Mariner GM would have been this proud of a homegrown position player? Oh ... depends whether you count Ichiro. Before that it would have been Dan Wilson and Edgar, just a bit more recent than Junior-Buhner-ARod.
You'd better believe that plays into a decision to re-sign, the fact that every time another org's rep brings up Kyle Seager, you can sit they-ah looking like a tree full of owls. (very wise.) But Seager didn't cost a dime to resign. He's a true Longoria-class signing.
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Here is a Lookout Landing readable, quoting (via Churchill) that there is a 75% chance that Nelson Cruz will be a Mariner. It profiles Cruz for yer. It's doubly readable because it underlines the fact that the ownership group veto'ed a 1 x $7.5m contract with a 1 x $9m option, due to the embarrassment factor. Oh, now we can ignore the snickering, now that we know he's an RBI man. Now that he's done over 600 AB's what he did over the previous 3,000. :: groan :: Here was the SSI POTD from twelve months ago, complete with 41-HR Safeco overlay and all the trimmings.
Never mind Dr. D's grumpiness. You, the discerning SSI reader, have the same two readables as you did last year:
He isn't a bona fide cleanup hitter. He's a de luxe #6 hitter, maybe a #5 when getting 89 games at DH, as he did with the Orioles. The M's sign him now, fine, but that's a real wart on their face that they didn't know who he was last year. Oh, well. No use holding back bad money just because you withheld the good money.
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ESPN claims that Taijuan + Taylor for Upton + Gattis is their idea. And here we thought it was Shannon Drayer's. Point is, you know traction when you see it.
Upton has the same 160 PX that Cruz did and does. That's all. Upton can hit, can solve lefty issues, and can run, but let's not confuse him with a real star. Yet, anyway. Four years of Taijuan had better bring really nice chances of an extension.
Here is the Lookout Landing profile of Brandon McCarthy, germaine in the event that Taijuan is flipped for Justin Upton and a good nine yards towards a team-friendly deal there.
Add Nelson Cruz (75%, neh?), Justin Upton and Evan Gattis all in one peregrine-like swoop and ... Dr. D is still not falling out of his chair. But it's a target-rich environment, and Jay-Z "will part with untouchables" to get a right hand bat.
BABVA,
Jeff
If the M's had signed Cruz last year it would only have cost them a 3rd round draft pick. By waiting until now it will cost them a first round pick. For a civic that's terrible. Also, if they had Cruz they wouldn't have traded for Kendrys Morales who cost millions but was awful so it's not as if they saved much money anyway.
Say we sign Cruz for four years, 70 million (not a fan of this...but it sounds likely) and trade Walker and Taylor for Upton and Gattis (again...I don't think we should have to give up Taylor to do this...but whatever). We would have Ackley to trade away as well as possibly Saunders.
Do we really need McCarthy at Silva-like money when we have Ackley and Saunders to offer for pitching?
Nonetheless, that leaves our line-up as:
CF) Jackson
1B) Morrison
2B) Cano
RF) Upton
3B) Seager
LF) Cruz
DH) Gattis
C) Zunino
SS) Miller
yowza
In his 5 fulltime-starter years in Texas, a bandbox for sure, Cruz averaged 30 homers a year (if you give him 13 homeruns in the 80 games he missed in '10 and '12).
He hit 40 in Baltimore. He turns 35 next year...and 36/37 in the two years following, if the contract is only 3 years. I shudder at the thought of a $17M 4th year.
Uh, no.
I'm not in. 2 years at $8 or $9M last year was a no brainer and we blew it. But we're talking about possible ladding three years to that idea. Three REALLY expensive years.
No thank you at those rates. I"m not paying for his outlier year (40 taters) for the next 4 seasons.
Put the brakes on Z. To quote the great Keith Jackson, "Whoa, Nellie!!!"
Get me Gattis for Ackley and a youthful bat. Get Cespedes in a hurry (not because I love him but because Texas or somebody will have him locked up by Saturday and he helps us).
Do you think the BoSox would swap out Cespedes for Rodney, pairing Uehara and Rodney in a great 1-2 8th/9th inning punch? Rodney scares the boogers out of me....but he did get it done, most of the time. I would still sell him for Cespedes...I think.
Mookie Betts suddenly doesn't have a home in Boston, BTW. Considering that we need a CF in a year....grab him as a toss in.
Matt, what would you think about a deal that pursued Cespedes (goner), Betts (homeless) AND Craig (because I think Boston will keep Napoli)?
But at the rates being tossed about I'm passing on Cruz.
Good pitching has sprouted up like mushrooms from the ground for Seattle for some time now, but that may be over. It seems like every good starting pitcher or reliever in the Mariner's system is already in the majors, except Erasmo Ramirez and Danny Hultzen.
I think that the top three other starting pitchers in the high minors are Tyler Olson, Jordan Pries and James Gilheeny, and they all have mountains to overcome. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it isn't time to hand the ball to any of those guys.
The idea of trading any pitching hurts mightily. Especially 'Kuma.
"You will build a house but not live in it, you will plant a vineyard, but not even begin to enjoy its fruit" Deuteronomy 28:30. Last I checked, this was a curse to be avoided. Here, the Mariners have built a mighty house of piching, and now it is time to live in it.
Consider the cons of trading the Kuma:
The Mariners rescued Iwakuma from the Rakuten prison, where he was serving a sentence of 10,000 innings, or death of his right arm, whichever came first.
Iwakuma is a family man who likes Seattle and wants to stay there.
He makes the Orcs his personal dorei
If anyone was going to sign a team friendly extension, it would be Iwakuma.
He was supposed to be toast four years ago; Iwakuma is toast in the same way that Jered Weaver is toast. There is toast on paper, and toast in the American League. The two are very different.
Consider the cost of trading Walker:
No more Walker, Texas Ranger jokes from Spectator.
Free agent in 2020 or 2021
There are two types of number 5 pitchers. There are youngsters with upside who are breaking into the league, and there are old fringe guys getting a few more years in the bigs. Sometimes, the old fringe guys are good, like Chris Young, mostly they are not. If you trade your promising youngster, lets call him Doug Fister, and try to replace his production with an old fringe guy, this rarely works.
"His heart and soul are with the Mariners"
Boy of destiny
More rhetoric from the no trading pitchers party (NTPP).
No way anyone is getting Betts from Boston. He's going to bat leadoff from either CF or RF from day one. I'd LOVE for the M's to acquire him, start with Walker and whatever else it would take to get him here. Great chance of being one of the most valuable players in all of baseball over the next 10 years. Have you seen Bill James projection for Betts in 2015? I'd bet James is as high (or higher) on Betts right now as he was on Pedroia and the call Doc mentions in the article above. MVP type numbers:
Mookie Betts: .321/.405/.493; 41 doubles, 15 home runs; 40 stolen bases
More likely we see El Oso Blanco here, and I'd be down with that.
Jason Werth, who is two years older than Nelson. Jason's OPS those last two seasons were .931 and .849. Jason will be paid $21 mil per year for the next three years. I'm not sure what the Mariners would have to spend for the next four years of Nelson Cruz, but I'm not hearing $21 per season.
I remain completely comfortable with Werth, er Cruz, as our DH going forward. Losing a #1 pick hurts, but not for another 4 years. I'm not sure who we would be competing with for this primarily DH guy - the Orioles I suppose, but I think we can get him for a better price than what the Nationals are paying for Werth.
Sign him, fill the hole, and go to war with the best rotational depth, arguably the deepest bullpen, and a lineup that features Ackley and Saunders at the top, with Cano, Cruz and Seager at the MOTO. That's some damage, and we get Zunino and LoMo for additional cleanup. There's also Miller, and a possible Jackson comeback. That's a lot of talent, and more on the way.
If Cruz falters, someone in the DJ/Kivlehan/Blash/Montero pile will emerge to deal with it.
Definitely in his early seasons in Texas he benefited by hitting there, but in the past two seasons his slugging was actually higher on the road, and last season it wasn't even close. Could it be the PEDs?
The Mariners' DH/1B pile is the best argument yet for getting an outfielder as the big RH bat! Right now, there is one spot for a 1B benchie behind LoMo, and one DH. If the big add is Justin Upton, DH will be clear to try all of those guys out. This would be very desirable. I think Choi's bat is going to be a deportable offense. Like Seager, he hits immediately at every level of the minors. Same with Kivlehan.
1) Jack has decided he will NOT trade Walker or Paxton, no matter how many times he's asked. And he's seeing what he can get without including them in a trade.
2) He's decided he is willing, but is shopping for the best offer.
I'm voting for #1, because I think the deal would already be done if he were willing.
On Kuma, there is some concern based on his September and Japan showing. But I really think there's a money issue that has to be resolved first. If the outfielder comes in a trade, then there may be some money left for Kuma this year. But if it's Cruz, it seems a lot more unlikely that we'll be adding yet another eight figure salary this year (assuming 3/$30 for Kuma). We pay him his $7m this year...then negotiate accordingly when the season ends.
But I absolutely agree on the pending problem. If #1-#5 are set (meaning no exit from the current rotation)...and Erasmo and Hultzen are #7 and #8 in either order...we still need a #6. Where is this year's Chris Young? And a veteran swing man wouldn't hurt, either (my preference for Carlos Villanueva is already on record).
I haven't gotten around to posting my pitching manifesto... er, breakdown... but basically:
- Victor Sanchez and Stephen Landazuri are our best High-Minors pitching prospects. Lando is a bit fragile, and Sanchez was the youngest player in the AA Southern League by two FULL years to start this last season. Neither is ready.
- Jordan Pries is an emergency stop-gap, but no more at this point. I still like him, but a RH sinker-baller is a tough row to hoe.
- We still have bullpenners coming (Matt the Stupendous is just the latest working his way up through AA) but no bullpenners who should be starters.
- The other really good arms (Diaz, Missaki, Gohara, etc) are mostly in the low to low-low minors and several years away.
- If Hultzen makes it back to form he's the best arm in the system by a good amount. If he doesn't, I dunno that I'd say we have a #1 or even good #2 in the bunch. There's some pretty good arms down there, but nobody I think is quite like Walker or Paxton if Danny-boy can't dance that jig for us.
So yeah: be careful what arms you give away. Sanchez can pull an Elias, but Paxtons and Walkers are hard to find. Now, in our park decent pitchers can look like pretty good ones... but we don't want them to LOOK the part, we want to em to walk it and talk it and live it.
It's also true that Walker and Paxton are one pitch from irrelevance and a demolished stock price. Is now selling high, or should we wait?
I'm on the patience bandwagon.
I'm basically in on that move, Moj. Get me a big bat (Kemp/Gattis/Craig/Cespedes) and spend on arms after that.
And just plan on one of the kids getting significant PT from the get-go.
I would consider swapping out 'Kuma (assuming he's not resigning---I don't know the conversations on that front). Would rather sell Ackley than Saunders.
To tell you the truth, the guy I'm most worried about in the lineup is Logan Morrison. Over the last three years, where you basically get this iteration of Morrison (the one where he isn't an OBP machine-'10-or a homer masher-'11),
His vR #'s have .723, .778 and .695, but his vL was .659, .491 & .846 (BABIP of .389).
It wouldn't surprise me if he was a .730 amd .660 guy this year. And that looks a lot like his '12 season.
I think I'm more convinced that that Kivlehan will be an out-of-the-box 100+ OPS COF than I am that morrison is back there again. Well, call it a pick 'em bet.
Adding the 2nd bat is Morrison security for me.
The Upton+Gattis or Cespedes+Betts or Kemp+VS type of ideas give you some flexibility in that regard. If your Star acquisition is 1 year (Cespedes/Upton) but you get a younger bat that could fit the bill down the road but has options it makes the situation more flexible. Between Kivlehan, Choi, DJ and even Montero there's some potential that your needs at 1b/DH aren't going to be so desperate by the end of 2015 anyway but Gattis, Betts or Van Slyke could help at DH in the interim, or at least be tried there to see if they can. With those options close on the farm you've got some fallback options if DH proves to be something that guy just can't do decently. Maybe that's not a good idea, to let them focus a bit on offense in the AL for part of the year since none of them are accustomed to the league. All of them offer at least a little flexibility to change the plan if needed.
Right now, if you gave me a choice of improving one spot this year, Morrison or Saunders? My answer would definitely be Morrison. If you asked for 2 I'd say Morrison and Jackson. 3 names? Still not naming Saunders because I'm more confident in him than Ackley, Miller, Taylor or Zunino for 2015. Long term I'm not worried about Zunino and think Miller/Taylor give a pretty good chance we're not worried about SS in 2017. CF is still a bigger worry for me on both ends, now and later. CoF I think there are several on the farm that could help me forget Saunders and Ackley within 3 years, just don't see it for CF.
I see many different combinations of 2 bats that would answer the needs for more RH OBP. I think it is a need for 2 bats though because OBP was pretty abysmal in general for the Ms. Vs RHP the Mariners .304 OBP was 13th in the AL and that was their good side?