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Here's the sound bite from the 1970's :- )

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The SSI Diamond Club had this figured out in its head, before the rays of light from inside their eyes had even reached out and grabbed the headlines, to reel them back in.  (If you think it's easy to prove the current theory of vision, you think wrong).  But those of us in the bleachers need to see it laid out on a napkin:

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One thing that fans are NOT good at, is allowing for increase in the yearly escalation of contracts given to truly desirable players, healthy ones, ones who play well at a glove spot, all that Chico Escuela stuff.  Suffice it to say that if Kyle Seager had hit the free agent market in 2018, you weren't getting him for no 5/$110M Hanley Ramirez money.

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On the other hand, some pundits narrow their snake eyes and want to know why Seager would take a $100M deal now, when just a few years down the road he could get $200M.  It ain't like he's going to forget how to back-hand racquetball serves, now is it?  And there isn't a more reliable offensive game in the, um, game.

The thing we always forget about is this:  the first $100M is equal in value to all the money thereafter.  If I lay $100M in your bank account, your day-to-day life will change by more -- at that point -- then it will when I lay the next $5 billion in it.  Really the billions change the level of influence and power you exert, as opposed to buying more toys for you to play with on the sand of the Caribbean.

But if what you want is a luxury island all to yourself, $100M is more than enough.  As a millionaire, not billionaire, banker once told Dr. D:  "How many trips to the Carribbean can you take?  I've taken 27."  And these ballplayers get the travel anyway.

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The timing of this is perfect on the Mariners' part.  You want to be very confident of your 3rd- or 4th-year arb player; you want to feel like if he's a free agent, you'd be glad to give him $100M.  But you've also got to catch him far enough away from free agency, that he feels he could pop his Achilles between now and then.

Golfclap for Bob Dutton.  He buried the line in a little table a month ago:  only question is when M's get long-term deal done

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So the Rays did a great job of exploiting this principle, locking up Evan Longoria, Matt Moore and others by virtue of the "First $100M Wins" Theorem.  Incredibly, 2008 found them sitting on 91.7 wins per year, times six straight years -- and this after having lost 90+ games in every season of their history until then.

Seattle writers "break baseball code" when they acknowledge anything smart ever done by Bill Bavasi.  But he exploited the same idea to sign en masse Tim Salmon, Troy Percival, Jim Edmonds, Jim Leyritz, Chuck Finley and others.  Bill Stoneman came in, made a tweak or two to that core, and then stood on the pitcher's mound waving to the crowd as the postseason victories rolled in.

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In locking up Kyle Seager to a "First $100M Wins" Contract, the Mariners have taken a whale of a big step towards permanency.  There are about seven candidates for next season's contracts.

You'da thought that Mike Zunino was one .460 SLG away from it, but then we danced until dawn with Russell Martin.  You'da thought that Michael Saunders was one 550-AB season away, but then he gave Lloyd a hotfoot.  You'da thought that Dustin Ackley was one .327 season away from it, but that was like six years ago.

Not sure how it works with pitchers.  I know I'd give Matt Moore's contract to James Paxton right now.

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Point is, as some of these Millerses and Taijuanses jell as stars in the AL, it's nice to know that the M's know about offering $100M to a 4th-year player.

BABVA,

Dr D