Echo Box II
just reelin' in the week's newz

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Dipoto shuffled K-Pax off to Buffalo, or at least a close proximity thereof, so as you can imagine this has Dr. D in the finest of kibitzing moves.  We'd just like to point out en passant that Paxton earned $30.2 million in bases gained and lost in 2017, this coming in a shortened season at the cost of $4.9M.  

But that's neither here nor there, I guess.  $9M was just too much to spend for Cy production, so off to Buffalo it goes.  This be the thread we're kibitzing:

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7.  Sonic Boom quoth:

No way I trade Segura for Myers, straight up! How cash-strapped are the Mariners, anyway?!

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Judging by Dipoto's GM'ing, very.  That's not snark; that's careful deliberation over the concept of trading a $9M All-Star pitcher, among other things.   Dr. D isn't sure but he seems to recall reading somewhere that cheap Billy Beane teams like to deploy $30-50M players at the cost of $5-10M.

As most Denizens seem to realize, Myers = Ryan Healy at best but had all of them noticed that Mr. Myers is slated to make $22.5M over the seasons 2019, 2020, and 2021?

We realize that the rumor has us asking SD to take make Mike Leake's salary but it takes some SERIOUS re-imagining to visualize the resulting ballclub as one that could justify pole-axing James Paxton's $9M salary.  There has to be something for us to root for, correct?

Don't quote me but I am starting to heavily sympathize with Arte Moreno ..

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8.  BlissedJ sez:

And I really don't want to see Segura go anwyhwere. But include Jeisson Rosario, Tirso Ornelas and/or Luis Campusano and I'm interested :) Tooled up CF, power hitting RF and C that can put bat to ball. All with decent or better eye and manageable K rates for their age/league.

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So yes, this is now the "dream scenario" that we get in the SD rumors.  But!  This would be paying $15M in salaries times 4 years (Segura's dinero) to whatever little prospect haul we get, right?  Compare to Paxton salary?  And this would be the best case re-imagination?

I'm sure that Rosario is better than age and level but paying him $5-7M the next four years seems rather inconsistent with the re-imagination.

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9.  Hanjag sez, re: Segura/Leake v. Myers:

6 WAR going for 2.4 WAR coming back. 4.3 WAR Segura plus 1.7 innings eater Leake. I know the Padres have a loaded system so I gotta claim at least 1 of the top 100s. They have 10. Mypick is their 4th best pitcher #7 is the system 6'8" 3MM dollar sign from Cuba in 2016. He has a 70 FB score (sits mid 90s peaks 98-99) He is a 55 overall score on the 20-80 scouting scale mlb.com uses. Add to it a couple of not top 100s but organizational types as well. My picks #18 SS Speedy Xavier Edwards (70 speed) good batting average and OBP as a 19 year old in Tri-Cities low A hit:314/438/360 triple slash. My .02$

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I've seen some valuation systems that put a decent 1st-round pick at around $5-7M per year, or $20M total.  So you could make an ARGUMENT, anyway, that a top-100 prospect justfies the amputation of your All-Star middle infielder at the big league level.  But then you kind of wonder why you can't buy such commodities on the FA market...

Enjoy,

Dr D

Blog: 

Comments

1

Again, I really hope the M's aren't primarily motivated by money here. Pax heading out for prospects makes sense purely on a talent window basis... if you don't expecct to complete in '19 and aren't sure about '20, getting prospects for Pax makes sense w/o worrying about the $9m Pax is cashing this year.

Still, I *really* hope JeDi knows something the rest of the world doesn't about the haul he got back for Maple. I don't like deals where you're relying on your GM being the smartest guy in the room for it to balance right.

2

is maybe the rest of the world knowing things that Jerry doesn't.

1) I think most agree that, to date, the Haniger deal is his gem.  I do.  But let's take it from the Arizona point of view. On the first level, it's logical that the D-Backs said, "OK, we've got more than enough outfielders so you can have a non-young Haniger for one of your better rotation pieces."  Cool.

What doesn't make sense is swapping out Segura for Ketel Marte.  But if Arizona's motivation was to get Segura out of their clubhouse at whatever cost...that sort of works. Maybe he was just a bad apple.  

But Jerry had Segura in his farm system in LA.  He would have known him.  He traded him and others for Zack Greinke.  Maybe Jerry heard about clubhouse problems...which is why he included him in that deal?  But if that's the case, why did he agree to later trade FOR him? 

Maybe Segura's attitude cratered after the death of his son...and never recovered.  Quite possible.  But with Jerry's previous employment as interim GM in Arizona...don't you think he could have sniffed that out with his old pals down there?  

Or maybe it wasn't a problem...until Segura arrived in the M's clubhouse.  Maybe our clubhouse changed him, rather than the other way around. 

Or maybe there's no problem in the first place.  Who knows?

I realize this is all pure conjecture...but I'm not ready yet to give Jerry the benefit of the doublt as a genius trader or talent assessor.  Once he and McKay start developing MLB players...we'll know.  The jury is still out.

2) And I'll have to add the one that really sticks in my craw.  I loved the Drew Smyly deal.  But he never threw a pitch in an M's uniform.  Maybe it all happened in that one WBC start?  Or did Jerry not do enough on the medical side to detect any possible issues there before agreeing to the deal?

3

Diderot,  at the end of the day- while I enjoy speculating about how we could improve our baseball team, if we were in charge for a day- I have to trust that Jerry has more data at his disposal than I do, and my thoughts are simply based on my (limited) perspective. The alternative to that seems ultra-scary to me, as a fan (such as not believing my pastor is seeking or hearing from God). Then it's time to change allegiances! 

Still and all- while I know nothing about personalities, and up and until a few weeks ago I believed that all within the Mariners' clubhouse was sweetness and light- the only reasons to push trades of Cano and Segura that make sense to me are potential off-field ones. And, I can see no reason to "bundle" Diaz or Haniger with a big ugly contract. Trade anyone for the most you can get- make DIaz available to the whole league, and offer him to the highest bidder- and, manage the clubhouse, even if players would otherwise be at each other's throats! 

4

Diderot,  at the end of the day- while I enjoy speculating about how we could improve our baseball team, if we were in charge for a day- I have to trust that Jerry has more data at his disposal than I do, and my thoughts are simply based on my (limited) perspective. The alternative to that seems ultra-scary to me, as a fan (such as not believing my pastor is seeking or hearing from God). Then it's time to change allegiances! 

Still and all- while I know nothing about personalities, and up and until a few weeks ago I believed that all within the Mariners' clubhouse was sweetness and light- the only reasons to push trades of Cano and Segura that make sense to me are potential off-field ones. And, I can see no reason to "bundle" Diaz or Haniger with a big ugly contract. Trade anyone for the most you can get- make DIaz available to the whole league, and offer him to the highest bidder- and, manage the clubhouse, even if players would otherwise be at each other's throats! 

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