What the Red Sox are Looking For in ST
The one person we never ask

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There are three different ways to complete the same "Appeal to Authority" syllogism.  

Here's the way that Wikipedia completes it:

1 Most of what authority A has to say on subject matter S is correct.
2 A says P about subject matter S.
3 Therefore, P is correct.

...............

Here's the way that a certain brand of grad student -- the contemptuous species, we mean -- dismisses all reference to any authority that is out of favor with him:

1 All of what authority A has to say on subject matter S is believed to be correct -- but only by mind-numbed robots who have fewer than 90 college credits.
2 A says P about subject matter S.
3 Therefore, the mind-numbed robots assume that P is correct.
4 Those who have been to college -- > are safe to assume that P is either incorrect or saying something we already knew.

..............

Here's the way that Dr. D, and he assumes 98% of SSI readers, actually listen to Eric Wedge, Jack Zduriencik, Bill James, Geoff Baker and their ilk:

Most of what authority A has to say on subject matter S has been worthy of consideration.
A says P about subject matter S.
Therefore, if we hadn't yet given P its due consideration, we may have overlooked something.
We should be alert to what A is saying.  Hey, what's on Baker's twitter account today?

...............

I don't assume that Bill James is correct about everything.  In fact, I've observed that he's wrong -- or seems wrong to me -- about a good number of things.  But I'm also aware of the fact that James, uniquely, has made a systematic attempt to spend his life open-mindedly searching for truth in baseball.  It's not his sky-high IQ that has earned him the chair he sits in.  It is the fact that he's uniquely open-minded and unbiased.

So I want to know what he has to say.

................

Right now he's talking about the best way to watch spring training, of which he has seen 50 or so years' worth.  Here is his comment on it:

 

I am watching the Phillies on spring training mlb.tv because, well, I have the subscription. I have been lying to myself that I am checking out how good Ryan Howard and Dom Brown are swinging the bat, and how Mike Adams is pitching and whether Michael Young play third base. Last night I realized, I don't know what I am looking at, or at least, based on what the announcers are saying, I have no idea what I should be looking for to see if these guys are any good. Do you have any tips about what a fans should look for in a spring training game to tell the difference between a player who is making progress or getting ready and one who is going to fall on his face when the season begins?
Asked by: MikeChary
Answered: 3/1/2013
You look for signs of self-confidence or self-doubt, but even the professionals don't always know.   In 2004 we had several players competing for the second base job, and at the end of spring training we thought we had struck out.   We didn't think ANY of them were up to the task, and we were seriously considering picking up somebody who was cut by another team at the end of spring training.     In the end, we decided to go with Mark Bellhorn, and cut Tony Womack.   Bellhorn hit 37 doubles, 17 homers, scored 93 runs for us; Womack was picked up by St. Louis and hit .307, scored 91 runs and stole 26 bases for them, and we saw him again in the World Series.    You just never know.  
 
I should go back and check the old newspapers. ..I think there was a third player in that competition who wound up having a decent season for some other team.    But I don't remember now who it was. 

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When we ask the question, "Can Jesus Montero hit cleanup in the big leagues?", we ask lots of people:

  • Brian Cashman
  • Jack Zduriencik
  • Roger Hansen
  • Tim Kjurkian
  • Our local bloggers

You know who we never ask?  Who is in the best position to know whether Jesus Montero can hit cleanup?   

Eric Wedge and Jack Zduriencik are SURREPTITIOUSLY "asking" this question of the principals involved.  Say, Jason Bay.  Jason, what do YOU think about whether you can drive in 90 runs this year?

What do you REALLY think about it, Jason?  Let's see the cut you take at this 1-2 pitch.  Are you fighting a rearguard action, trying not to embarrass yourself?  Or are you out there taking the fight to the enemy?

Think about it.  We bloggers are not asking that question.  Eric Wedge IS asking that question.  He's down there figuring out who DOES think they can hit big league pitching in 2013.

Right now, most of them believe that.

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