Last three years, vR: .189/.133/.163 vL: .110/.121/.0 (Zero)
If we use him exclusively vR, an ISO of .150 is reasonable to expect (slightly better than his average over the last two seasons). He will be 41, remember. Unless he's using Barry Bond's cream, then .193 is not likely.
So, we get a complete platoon guy (OK, the "right" platoon), who is not much of a fielder (well, he's a liablility: Makes about 1/3 play less per game than the average LF..although he was average last year), who now gets in the way of other players.
The acquisition didn't make sense. Now, if he ISO's close to .200 and hits lefties a bit, I'll give him credit, and Wedge/Z, too.
With Morse and Morales present, why won't Ackley's and Smoak's resurgence (if they occur) be due to THEIR presence and not Raul's?
If Raul hits, that what we can give him credit for...not much more.
But he has to mash VR, to have this pay off.
I'm not betting on that. Would be glad if it happens.
moe

Although I'm more open minded on the possibility of Peguero. The possibility is not in ISO, that's his one given which is a part of my thought on giving him another chance. He is hitting pitches he couldn't touch last year, going the other way etc.
That's also a big part if why I'm liking Bay so far. I think he has more upside than Ibanez in ISO especially and don't think they belong on the same roster at this point. Maybe it's a wash between them and maybe Bay just won't provide much, but as the guy on the bench and next in line behind Saunders, Guti and Morse he seems like the best option right now. He's not Guti with the glove but he's also not Morse.

Is something like -4.5 or something, and is only slightly worse by DRS. Mike Morse doesn't have a season's worth of defensive innings anywhere but Left, where he's been about -9, and his quality could improve with the consistency of playing just that position. Jason Bay, with the exception of the 2 seasons he dealt with knee problems, has been an adequate corner defender his entire career. The trio's defensive issues are more than a little overblown.
I also have very little confidence in any of Wells, Liddi, or Peguero o outperforming Ibanez offensively as all 3 have crippling strike out problems that have been exposed even in Minor League play and especially at the Major League level. I've been saying for months that for everyone that was hit for Nick Swisher, Bay is a better version of the same player aged 2 years.
The alternate options aren't that appealing to me.

Career MiLB ISO is .104. OBP is .371. Unfortunately, he had to try to become an ISO Beast because that's who they wanted/needed him to be. Changing the type of player he was probably contributed in large part to his 'being in-between" and often lost at the plate. Of course, his delays have been discussed ad nauseum.

You're right Spec. For some braindead reason I was glancing at OBP and not BA, when I subtracted from Slg. Repeated the mistake 6 times! Let's give him .185 vR this year. Sorry....and thanks for catching it.
Raul had 11 starts in RF last year...his first since he had 3 in '05 in Seattle. When we rest Guti or Saunders,
We're gong to have BOTH Raul and Morse in the OF (Morse had 64 RF starts last year, 35 in '10). If won't be Andino, he's had 2 MLB stars in the OF.
Raul better ISO above .185 vR....because he makes us so much less flexable.
moe

Does ISO correct for park effects? If not, how much of Raul's ISO is due to cheap HR's in the Yankee band box?

Raul would have to completely collapse in order to not make the team and it looks like they are OK breaking camp with Andino as the only reserve IF. Assuming a 12 man pitching staff and Shoppach, that leaves one reserve OF spot. That's the Bay/Wells fight. I'm not sure it matters one way or the other in the grand scheme of things. 250 AB's isn't going to make that much of a difference. Wells is younger and a better defender, while Bay has the "veteran" thing that Wedge likes so much.
I'm far more interested in what they will do with the bullpen. Baker and Wedge seem to have a mutual man-crush on Loe but what young gun does he push to AAA in order to make the team? One of the righties (Pryor, Capps or Kinney) or one of the lefties (Leutge, Perez or Furbush)? Knowing Wedge, he's going to want that veteran in the pen.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but here are Raul's 2012 home/away splits: Home - 187 official at bats, .894 OPS with 14 home runs...... Away - 197 official at bats, .634 OPS with 5 home runs. Why would anyone expect him to hit well at 41 years old outside of Yankee Stadium? Why are his 2006 & 2008 numbers in Safeco relevant? Those numbers are 7 and 5 years old, respectively.

Right on Loe/Kinney, but I don't see Carson Smith as a possibility. Not because he doesn't have great stuff, but because we already have four 1st or 2nd year guys in the bullpen. You think Wedgie wants to go to battle with ANOTHER youngster out there? C Smith is a mid-season call-up at best.

I sure like the swiss-army knife bullpen. Closer + 3 RH and 3LH relievers. Wilhelmsen + Pryor, Capps, Kinney/Low, Luetge, Perez and Furbush: a tool for every occasion.

GMZ signed Perez quickly after the 2012 season. My review of his 2012 results indicates that he was the best lefty reliever the M's had last year, as Leutge faded badly in the second half. I am curious for the basis of your statement: "Oliver Perez is a veteran lefty that isn't necessary in any way."

maybe I was counting 2 inf subs. Looking at spring stats this year is very odd. The low OPS before todays game among the 14 hitters we're talking about: Wells .795. Next was Seager and Saunders at .833. Stats haven't been updated yet, but it looks like the low is now Saunders at .833 since both Seager and Wells improved their #s today and nobody close to that (Gutierrez being the only one) lowered their rate stats today. I don't think I've ever seen anything like that.
I don't think Loe is really better than any of those. Kinney is a similar veteran that put things together last year who is actually 3 years older. Oliver Perez is a veteran lefty that isn't necessary in any way. Those 2 are the ones I'd look at having Loe over , but the others are all clearly preferable to me. So it's not really adding a veteran in any preferable scenario, it's replacing a veteran.

Leutge and Furbush are enough to not require a3 rd lefty. sure, Leutge faded and you could send him down in place of dropping Perez. I just don't think Perez is necessary with the rest of the pieces. He's had ERA+ over 100 4 times spread out over 10 years and under 80 5 times with no consistency. Last year was by far a career year. Maybe at 30 it just clicked and I'd be wrong to see more in the younger guys. The way I see it the upside of Leutge is higher even this year though. Furbush can go in long outings and short so maybe keeping 3 lefties is best but I don't think it's necessary.

2012 Post All Star Game Stats for the M's 3 Lefty Relievers: IP / ERA / WHIP: Perez: 20 / 1.35 / 1.20..... Furbush: 9.2 / 4.66 / 1.45... Leutge: 18.1 / 6.87 / 1.80. Looks to me as if Perez was the best of the bunch. He definitely has the arm with the most life and the fastball with the most pop, so, based on the eye test, I prefer Perez. Why Perez' failures as a starter earlier in his career are relevant to the here and now of the M's bullpen is not clear to me as virtually all relievers are failed starters, including Furbush. In my opinion, GMZ made a statement for Perez when he signed him quickly when free agency started. Why the M's would depend this year on Leutge after his disastrous 2012 second half is not clear to me. Neither is Leutge's upside. My preference is for proven performers, and Perez fits that bill over Leutge.

Look at their K's and walks; Leutge was clearly better. The only reason I'd give Perez a serious look is because he might improve as he gains strength after his injuries.

Do you think we've seen the best of Leutge? Perez seems more likely to have shown his peak so far. Holding Leutge s fade at the end of his first season above AA against him is fine by me, but if we've seen the best of him I'd be very surprised. He definitely should have more long term value than Perez whether he does this year or not. Thanks for pointing out Perez was starting until last year, I had actually missed that.
All things considered, I'd rather have Perez than Kinney or Loe anyway. Kinney and Loe both could have something of quality left to give and I'd actually think Loe may have a bit more than Kinney based on age. I'm not sure about how their stuff stacks up though.

it should be that small sample home-road splits really don't tend to mean much at all. Yankee Stadium's park factors aren't that extreme, not even for lefties, and the park-adjusted metrics like wRC+ do indeed account for them.

Lefty reliervers post all-star break 2012, Leutge vs Perez: Hits/9; K/9; BB/9; BA against; ERA: Leutge in 18.1 innings -- 11.4 / 8.0 / 5.0 / .311 / 6.87 + 3HR given up..... Perez in 20.0 innings -- 7.2 / 6.3 / 3.6 / .219 / 1.35 + only 1 HR given up. Leutge had more strike outs but walked more than Perez. Perez gave up substantially fewer hits, while Leutge was pounded, giving up a home run every 6 innings. In a vacuum, just looking at the these numbers, I would chose Perez and it wouldn't be close. My $.02.

Caveats: I'm a slow learner and I don't understand advanced baseball metrics. That stated - per ESPN's summary of Justin Upton's batting performance for the 3 years 2010 -12 with > 1800 plate appearances: .928 OPS at home and .739 OPS on the road. My take from that is that he has yet to prove that he is an elite major league hitter away from Phoenix. Applying the concept of his most recent performances to Raul: OPS by year --- 2009 year in Philadelphia(age 37) - .899 // 2010 year in Philadelphia(age 38) - .793 // 2011 year in Philadelphia (age 39) - .708 // 2012 year in NY (age 40) - .761 OPS, with .894 OPS at Yankee Stadium and .634 OPS on the road. To my simple mind, the outlier performance in this otherwise perfectly smooth age-decline curve is Raul's unexpected rejuvination at Yankee stadium last year. I personally expect Raul's 2013 (age 41) OPS to continue its downward trend, now that he is not hitting in Yankee Stadium. My prediction is that his 2013 OPS is

Raul home/road split since 2009:
2009: .862 / .931 - great year on the road
2010: .859 / .721 - poor year on the road
2011: .833 / .577 - disaster on the road
2012: .895 / .634 - more suckage on the road
Understand that Philly from '09 to '11 was playing VERY slight hitters park. It had a major skew (104-105) its first 4 years, but settled to slightly favoring hitters.
Yankee Stadium III has been a 104-105 hitters park every EXCEPT last season (when it dropped to 102/103). But, among AL parks, after Texas (in a park effect league by itself), YS-III has been nipping on Fenway's heels for its entire existence as the 2nd most hitter friendly park in the AL.
But ... I would suggest that it could easily be argued based on the above data that Raul simply doesn't travel well anymore. Maybe he needs the extra rest of being at his home ... or maybe he needs that extra adrenaline from home crowd support. It could be any number of things, (including random fluke) that was behind the 2012 skew. But, when you look at the 2011 and 2010 skews, it certainly doesn't bode well ... playing all home games in a park skewed (who knows how much) toward pitching ... and having a significant 3-year period where road performance has been poor to dreadful isn't exactly optimism-inducing.

Looking at anything else actually makes your predictions worse, especially when extrapolating from such small sample sizes. With that in mind, Leutge did a little bit better in the second half (slightly better K rate, same UBB rate).

If I'm the M's manager and I want my lefty relief specialist to get a key out and for sure not give up a home run, I'm putting Perez in, not Leutge. Let's see what GMZ and Sgt Wedge do -- in my opinion, there is a good possibility that Leutge starts the season in AAA while Perez is on the 25 man. If both Perez & Leutge make the 25 man, let's see whom Sgt Wedge uses in the more critical situations. Stay tuned.