Seattle Sports Insider

Stayin' On the Porch, 2

Only realistic fantasies need apply

Posted by

10/31/12

Q. Does SSI like Alex Gordon?

A. Me? Actually I think he's something of a WAR mirage. My guess is that Zduriencik wouldn't give Paxton and Nick Franklin -- both wayyyy underrated in the blog-o-sphere -- for Alex Gordon. Could be wrong. Anyway: if Alex Gordon were to be our franchise player, the guy we built around, I'd shift my attention to pitching pretty quick.

But if I were going to make the case for Gordon - the centerpiece of 13's fine offseason plan - I'd point out that he's not very different from Shin-Soo Choo. Here they both are, neutral park, neutral team, 2013, if both healthy:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	Def	WAR	HR	RBI
Choo	.290	.380	.460	meh .. OK	4	20	85
Gordon	.300	.370	.470	+5 runs	4-5	20	85

Choo had a couple of .300/.400/.500 type seasons in there, years in which he was a poor man's Edgar Martinez. I don't see Alex Gordon that way offensively, but he is a very classy player. Choo used to be a notch above where Gordon is now; could be that now Choo is a half notch below him.

Similar players, lotsa walks, gap power, .300 hitters, all-round game. Used to be this kinda player was underrated. Now they're so underrated they're overrated.

13's plan involves a 110 OPS+ and 110 ERA+ right NNNOOooooowwwww. It's a cool plan, an original one, and crisply executed.

Q. Why does SSI like James Paxton better than other sites do?

A. I saw some fanpoll in which Paxton was rated the #4 young M's pitcher, like with 7% of the vote, behind even Erasmo Ramirez...

Other sites don't grok James Paxton's glorious mechanics, his college K/BB ratio, or the fact that he missed a year - you make allowances for small BB/9 hiccups. From an attack perspective they don't grok his overhand delivery, the lightning in his arm (up to 98 MPH), and the fact that he just flat has a lot more talent than Danny Hultzen.

I'll guarantee you that Zduriencik is with SSI on this one. Paxton would be the #1 M's youngster even if he weren't the readiest to pitch in the bigs, which he probably is.

Q. Other sites say that Paxton is nowhere near ready for the big leagues.

A. Other sites swore on their mothers' graves that Michael Pineda's fastball and slider would be be crushed by major league lefties. SSI is your go-to site for who is ready. And we're humble, too.

Q. Are Paxton and Franklin "elite" prospects?

A. Well, define elite... Tim Lincecum 2007, is that the minimum standard for that adjective?

You tell me who the Royals are going to get back, for Alex Gordon, that exceeds James Paxton. Gimme a name. ... anyway: if Nick Franklin isn't going to get an "elite" return then you know what to do. That's right. You don't trade him. (See post last week on the Dan Haren trade.)

There's a school of thought that says the M's don't yet have the stack of chips they'd need to play at the $100 table. If THIS stash of prospects -- 7 guys in the top 100, 9 in the top 120 -- is not enough to run with the Big Dogs yet, then I'd blinkin' like to know when you think it's going to be.

The Mariners might never, in your lifetime, have a better set of upper-minors prospects (including Erasmo, Capps, and Pryor) than they have right now. If you're still claiming we should cross our paws, lay our jowls on the porch floorboards and let the big dogs belly up to the ice cream truck, you're out ta lunch. We mean it in a good way.

Your friend,

Dr D

Comments

For the first time, I'm not afraid to trade ANYBODY.

"The Mariners might never, in your lifetime, have a better set of upper-minors prospects"
Great articles. The above line is the only one I can quibble with. This crop is not a fluke. Call me a homer or whatever but until he proves otherwise I think this is Jacks skill level. I expect more outstanding specs to keep funneling into the system via drafts and trades. As long as Captain Jack is at the helm I see the Mariner minors being a blue chip super farm.
Great days ahead.

No quibble there amigo

Could be Jack's skill level. Hopefully he won't have so many top-5 overall's in years to come, however :- )
Hate to bring it up, but what year was Capt. Jack born?

1951

So assuming he succeeds and is not replaced, it's hard to imagine he'll be stepping back any time soon.

So much young talent

We just need to determine what to do with it all. I mean, there's no need to trade for Alex Gordon if Stefen Romero is about to post Carlos Lee's career, as someone else suggested recently.
Just move Romero to LF and call it good.
The first question is: who do we have? Franklin, Zunino, Romero and Miller are all mighty fine blue-chippers at glove positions, but can they carry the offense? Ackley, Saunders, Seager and Smoak should be a hub to work around, except they haven't all hit like we need them to. Ackley is supposed to be Robin Ventura, not Scrubby McAverage. Smoak is supposed to be a Teixeira-class ship, not Rubber-Ducky class.
If Zunino comes up and pulls a Posey, then we can obviously make this offense work. If Montero turns into Sweeney, that'll be a big help. We have a flood of young hitters in both the bigs and the upper minors that COULD make an impact. More than Seager and Saunders need to (and we need those guys to keep it up as well).
We also have a ton of great arms, but arms are unreliable. Walker could go down like Pineda tomorrow, and what happens then? Imagine if we hadn't traded Pineda - he would have zero trade value for 3 years (the lost year, the recovery year, and at least half his "proof" year after that). Which pitchers do you trust to stay healthy? Which ones to be TOR talents?
Just selecting whom to trade is gonna be complicated. Most of us are on board with Paxton and Franklin having the most value of those we would trade... but I also like them as two of our best bets going forward. That's probably not a coincidence.
I want to keep Paxton for us. I also want a vet bat or two, and I don't want to lose our #1 draftpick in 2013 for signing that vet bat unless he's Hamilton-levels of awesome.
Something's gotta give. So I hope we can trade for a Tulo or a Gordon or a Wright (with extension), and see if we can't get the offensive contributor we need to help jumpstart the rest of the young lineup.
And yet selfishly I hope we can keep Paxton in the process. ;-)
It's a really big year for this team. I would not be surprised to see an extension for Felix, but if I were him I'd want to see what kind of team we deliver to him for the '13 season before he inks his name to that line. I want Felix's Mariners to compete for WS titles going forward, not basement standings. We've acquired a LOT of young guys. Time to move some of em for the RIGHT player(s) to enable us to take that next leap.
If only we could be sure which of our top dozen talents should remain, and which are free to go...
~G

Let's see... age 61

Gives him an estimated 10 years anyway, right?
Not trying to apply gallows humor :- ) but when they elected Reagan the second time, at age 69, they had to answer the question of how long he'd be able to serve - 61 doesn't sound like a problemo -

Tulowitzki?!

What is the deal on him in Colorado going forward Gordon?
Now when you are talking about franchise players at SHORTSTOP, or at catcher, you've got Dr. D's ear. That is sweeter than ice cream. With inflation his $20M per could be a 70%, 60% payment in his age 30-35 years.

See, there's one guy who knows a young gun when he sees one

Sometimes you think you're going crazy when you look at polls and knowledgeable fans have Paxton lagggggggging way 3rd, 4th among pitchers in his own org. You browse comments threads and hear smart amigos going "You can't get a big bat for Paxton. Now if you upgraded to Hultzen...." WHAAaaaaa?!
Just imagine if this kid were a Yankee. Think about it.
All it takes is a nod from G though and Dr. D regains his confidence in his own sanity :- )

That was my spitball, nothing "official"

Somebody was talking about Giancarlo Stanton, and if we're talking about him, then we're talking about pretty much anybody, and Tell is probably the more gettable of the two. The Rockies actually had a surprisingly solid year by Josh Rutledge while Tulo sat injured all season. So we pick up the risk on Tulowitzki's admittedly monster contract (with the .200-.300 increase in last season's Shortstop OPS making it feel like we added Stanton) and the Rockies get a grab bag of prospects for their new rebuild.

Not enough for 2 of them

With Iwakuma signed, it makes me wonder. What if you're talking about Vargas, Beaven, Hultzen, Franklin and cash?
Paxton and Hultzen, though...you trade either, the otherbetter work out for you. Walker could help, but he's never going to be the lefty #2 after Felix.