Area 13: the Value of Trades
Blockbuster 3-for-1's, Dept.

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The last couple of weeks, Dr. D has returned to an old favorite pastime.  What did they call it ... dowsing ... no, lousing up ... no, BROWSING the net.  Thass it.  Surfing and stuff.  D has been clicking on hyperlinks in the sidebars of websites.  It's got to stop, or we're going to hemorrhage the rest of what little quality we'd been trying to retain.

One reason it will ruin us, is because we blow our legs off on land mines like Thirteen's Offseason Plan Post at Lookout Landing.  It cost me like, two hours' worth of noodling up data on scrubs like Logan Morrison.  Thirteen's plan is so well-thought-out that had it been signed by a Baseball Prospectus author, it would have been one of the events of the offseason... SSI does get one side benefit, the coming dozen or so freebie articles that it can slam off Thirteen's heavy lifting.

Another reason it's going to ruin us, is because we keep running into bizarre stuff.  In this case, off-site responses that declare 13's fundamental flaw to be that .... he's using trades to make the team better.  Actually trades move talent around; free agency purchases are what add talent.  Eureka!  See how simple baseball can be?  :- )

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=== The Value of Trades ===

Thirteen's hyper-intelligent plan does pivot around the fulcrum of Stars & Scrubs trades -- in this case 

Trade SP James Paxton, SS Nick Franklin, SP Blake Beavan, OF Trayvon Robinson and SP Victor Sanchez to Kansas City for LF Alex Gordon and SS Christian Colon.

Trade CF Franklin Gutierrez, RP Shawn Kelley, OF Phillips Castillo and 3B Alex Liddi to Miami for OF Logan Morrison, IF Donovan Solano, and OF Jake Smolinski.

In the comments, amigos follow on with trades like these:

1. Trade James Paxton, Brad Miller, and Brandon Maurer for Wil Myers.
2. Trade Franklin Gutierrez, Blake Beaven, and Carlos Triunfel for Logan Morrison.
3. Trade Kyle Seager, Victor Sanchez, Stephen Romero, and Erasmo Ramirez for Brett Lawrie.

Studying 13's plan, Dr. D braced himself for a blizzard of protests a la "Why do homers always want to trade our castoffs for other teams' jewels" but 13 had cut that off at the pass, by giving KC about $1.50 on the dollar for Alex Gordon.  He still ran into some of it, but it was manageable.

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The Authorities, seeing 13's plan, sniffed "Don't be naive.  Trades just move talent around.  Free agency adds talent."

:: blinks ::

1.  13's plan had a big free agent aquisition.

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2.  By the anti-trade logic, none of the 80 trades last winter had any reason to exist?  None of the GM's thought that trades could lead to a better W/L record?

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3.  Jack Zduriencik has stated that his goal is to add a big bat, either in trade or in free agency.  If the "Trades don't add talent" logic be sound, Jack Zduriencik hasn't gotten the memo.  (Zduriencik traded for John Jaso, Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi last winter.)  Billy Beane hasn't (just last winter he traded for Seth Smith, Josh Reddick, Tom Milone, and 10 other players).

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4.  Deals tend to take a [50c + 50c + 50c for $1.00] structure.  Even if this "moves talent around" on the first level of perception ... it adds talent through its opening up of a portal at the bottom of the 25-man roster (for the team getting the Star) or by freeing up money (for the team getting the Scrubs). 

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5.  If you open Hole A to fill Hole B (Kyle Seager + ? for Giancarlo Stanton), it could be that you like the minor leaguer (Nick Franklin, Alex Liddi, Stefen Romero) who will fill Hole A.

This isn't an esoteric idea.  John McGraw, a hundred years ago, called it "dealing from strength to fix a weakness."

As 13 aptly put it in the comments:

Teams don’t create holes to fill holes? Yeah, I guess the Mariners wouldn’t ship off their #2 starting pitcher in order to fill their hole at catcher, leaving a spot for a replacement level guy like Blake Beavan in their rotation. Wait, they did? Well, the Royals wouldn’t move their 4 WAR left fielder for a rotation arm, leaving a bad player like Jeff Francoeur with a job. Wait, they did? Those moves just happened last offseason? Crazy!

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6.  Any time you trade [Player A, $0.75 Consensus Value], for [Player B, $0.75 Consensus Value], it gives you a chance to exploit your own vision of what Players A and B are worth.  Jason Vargas was worth $0.25 when Jack Zduriencik thought he was worth $0.50.  Every trade is a chance to assess a player better than other people have done.  This isn't just theory.  It's consistently how roto championships are won.  You think Hisashi Iwakuma is mediocre and I think he's good.  On Endy Chavez, it's vice-versa.  Let's trade.  

Billy Beane traded for Seth Smith last winter, under this premise.  Jed Hoyer traded for Chris Volstad with the same "let's see who assesses him better" idea.  

We both get one extra chance to be smart.  That's what makes a ballgame!  If I were a real GM, I would make as many trades as politically feasible, because if I am indeed 10% smarter than you, my chances to prove that are better in 30 trades than in 2 trades.

7. - 100.  etc.

101.  Dr. D doesn't know why he took the time to refute this objection to 13's plan.  ... oh yeah.  Because the 2013-15 Mariners simply must start trading quantity for quality.

Drive home safely,

Jeff

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Comments

1
Uncle Al's picture

Your statement about trading quantity for quality is exactly the situation that Seattle is in now. Catricala, Jones, LaFromboise, Maurer, Moran, Carraway, and probably Gillheeney need to be added to the 40 man roster. Possible candidates to be removed from the 40 man roster are Figgins, Medina, Robles, Ruffin, Carp, Peguero, Robinson, and Thames leaving room to add a starting corner outfielder, a back up catcher, and maybe a 5th outfielder. This tells me that Zduriencik must make a few trades this year as he has more inventory than he needs with more coming the following year. Another great situation to be in with another draft coming up in June and having a 12th round pick.
I start with the assumption that they will want to resign Iwakuma and Perez and that they will want to keep Jaso, Kelley, Kinney, Ryan, Saunders, and Vargas through arbitration. In signing Iwakuma and Vargas to 2-3 year contracts, they lock in two nice trade chips when Hultzen, Maurer, Paxton, or Walker arrives.
Carp, Gutierrez, Kinney, Robinson, Ryan, Vargas, and Wells are out of options.
I think the key to this whole off season is signing Iwakuma and Vargas to 2-3 year contracts, finding a starting outfielder, a back up catcher, and maybe a 5th outfielder. They could use Peguero, Robinson, or Thames as the 5th outfielder if there is no other choice and Thames could still be optioned to Tacoma.
There is going to be a huge log jam in Tacoma with Franklin, Miller, Triunfel, and possibly Romero in the infield. I think Triunfel should become the reserve infielder in Seattle to eliminate some of the problem.
The last big problem is that Figgins is also going to be a reserve infielder in Seattle at least until they can trade him of DFA him before the trade deadline in July when Franklin could be brought up. The budget isn't a problem this year and it doesn't matter what they spend as long as they spend it wisely and get what they need. There is about $68M of the coming Budget that is eaten up but there is enough room to add a Corner Outfielder, and the cost to resign Iwakuma and Perez. What a great situation to finally be in and still be flexible enough to do something at the trade deadline and the following year when another $15M is off the books.

2

No real reason to powerflush Kawasaki that I can think of, unless they're thinking about that back-pressure that forces a Triunfel type up into the 25-man.  I'd guess that Zduriencik saw that whatever options he chose, they were all going to involve some youngster making the ballclub as a middle infielder.
..............
As I recall, you're usually the one cautioning that the budget options are fewer than people think, right?  Interesting to hear, coming from you, that you like our options so much ... good stuff m'man...
We got a fresh influx of beefy-literate M's fans the last couple weeks.  Big fun.

3
Uncle Al's picture

People always think we have more money to spend than we really have. I don't have any idea what the amount of the Budget will be this year by $68M is gone and they still need to add the cost of a good corner outfielder and what it takes to resign Iwakuma and Perez. Zduriencik didn't panic and do something stupid in 2012 when it turned out that trading for Montero was his only viable option. He will try again this year to put the remaining pieces together, and if he can't, he will have a much better chance of getting it done in 2014.

4

In Seattle, they allot money for ARod, he doesn't sign, and then the dinero goes back into the coffers.  Kazuhiro Sasaki goes back to Japan, giving us an $8M rebate, and that goes anywhere and everywhere other than payroll.  We make a big push for Prince Fielder and he says nada, and his $20M is nowhere to be found on opening day.
The payroll, to the Seattle ownership committee, expands or contracts depending on whether they can land the targets they've tunnel-visioned in onto.  That payroll level is 100% discretionary, not just in theory but in practice, and if they don't find just the right options then it turns out we didn't have the money.
There are positives to that attitude, but it's not the one that fans in other big cities are accustomed to.  At SSI, most folks don't want to positively reinforce the ownership committee in its public line that no money was available.  The reality that they chose not to spend, in a given situation, is retroactively spun as inability to spend.
If Fielder had taken $160M last winter, they'd have given it to him.  If another guy had come in after that, let's say Suppan at a 30% discount, then they'd have done that too.  Same situation may occur with Hamilton this year.

5
Uncle Al's picture

We can call this situation anything we like but the facts are that Zduriencik was stuck with an impossible situation because of the stupidity of Bavasi and the problems of Gutierrez and Figgins which I don't blame him for. How could you ever believe that those two contracts could turn out as bad as they have? The payroll needs to be discretionary at this time so Zduriencik can finally attempt to improve this team again by spending a little money if it makes sense. Then I make the mistake of reading Jeff Baker today and he does something that doesn't make any sense because I know that he knows better because I've communicated with him in the past. He says the M's spent $85M in 2012 is correct but he takes this dollar figure and uses it to base his 2013 payroll on. He doesn't tell you that the $85M amount consisted of a Budget for 2012 that was $80M in payroll for the 25 man roster and another $5M for the Contingency Fund which eventually gets turned into additional salaries during the year. He then says we basically stand at $62M as of now but we are closer to $68M by throwing in the Contingency Fund. You have to add in the Contingency Fund when you talk about the Budget and that is why everybody thinks we have more money to spend than we actually have. The Budget and Payroll within the Budget are two different things at the start of the year.

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Lonnie of MC's picture

... with that $68M figure. I ran the numbers and prior to the Iwakuma signing the payroll stood at ~$58M. Figuring that they will approximate the payroll that they had in 2012 (everyone seems to think that this is so), that will give them about $27M to play with. Iwakuma just took a $6.5M bite out of that pie, so now they are down to ~$21M.
If you are wondering, my number is already loaded with a hefty raise for Vargas, Kelly, and Jaso.

7
Uncle Al's picture

I don't know why my last post isn't up as it should have been #5. It also gives a little bit of insight why Geoff Baker is off on the numbers he is using in his last post and he knows better but probably just blew by giving an explanation. I have $8M for Vargas, $1M for Kelly, Kinney, Jaso, Saunders, and $2.2M for Ryan. I also have $5M for the Contingency Fund as I expect a $90M Budget at a minimum. You are probably like everyone else and don't include about 6% for the Contingency Fund within the Budget. If it's a problem for you, give me an e-mail address and I'll just send the whole thing to you.

8

Per Greg Johns inbox edition from 11/1/12, the Mariners budget for last year was $91 Million. Further, Johns writes that the Mariners plan to increase payroll this year.
Lastly, lest we forget, that EVERY team was basically given $20 Million this year due to the new TV deal, so if the Mariners ONLY spend $100 Million... the Mariners will have broken even with last year's final budget of roughly $83 Million - a figure also supplied by Johns in the article.

9

I've never been crystal clear about why I have to go through and manually approve some comments that are held by the filter... I have the vague impression that it has to do with a user being signed in or not...
As y'all know, there is no such thing as (material) censorship at SSI.  Are you signed in when you post, Uncle Al?

10

At SSI we aim at the highest possible light-to-heat K/BB ratio.  :- )  
Gentle warning for a gentle speed violation:  phrases like "You are probably like everyone else" don't tend to domino into the glassy-smooth idea exchange that we are accustomed to here.  Saying that Baker "knows better" implies that he's being intellectually dishonest - and the jury here (the 2,000-5,000 readers) hasn't yet returned a verdict on which figures it deems "correct.".  That's coming in your first handful of posts and it's like a lawyer, in his opening argument, accusing the other lawyer of making mistakes due to sinister motive.  The jury doesn't even agree with him yet.  It's not more likely to, after an opener like that.
Please adapt to the community tone.
 For the rest of it, though, your budget erudition is impressive Uncle Al.  Keep the substance comin' amigo.

11
Uncle Al's picture

I'm not saying that about Baker at all. I'm saying he knows better because he knows what makes up that Budget and I think he just blew by that part of it because he is concentrating on Payroll and just forgot about making it a part of the discussion. I know that he knows what he is talking about when it comes to the Budget because we have communicated about the Budget in the past. He knows a lot about the Budget as does Jason Churchill. My Budget changes every time there is a player change and so the beginning Budget figure for 2012 means absolutely nothing to me. I just don't care about what it was. But I can say that after looking at what I show as being spent in 2012, Greg Johns $91M figure can't be correct and that's all I have to say about it. It shows that I'm logged in so I don't know what's going on either.

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