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What a great series read. I'm interested to see how the ''next wave'' of managers grade out. Whether the sabe-data can translate to wins.
Thanks man; I loved this.
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It isn't a perfect report card, but it is the best report card for managers that Dr. D is currently aware of. Label the constants here, "Pitcher pure wins" (strikeouts) and "Hitter pure wins" (walks). Now the question is, once those are a given, how "crisply" is a manager's team playing around this "talent"?
Of course, a manager has something to say about whether a hitter gets a garbage swing on 3-2 and wuffs, or whether he juuuuust holds up and takes his base. But still. This is a great way, over time, to see who the Earls and Bobby Coxes and Tony LaRussas and Casey Stengels of the game are; those guys beat the KW% with metronomic success. (By the way, it was feasible in the 1950's to beat your opponents based on thrumming them in the DP stats. Casey talked about this constantly, would break up his lineup to avoid GIDPs, and sometimes the 50's Yankees had colossal DP advantages. Doesn't work any more, but they did then, and that's to Casey's credit.)
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Anyway, Matty axed
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Just curious...and too lazy to look it up. :)
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Plugged yer into ... er, plugged it into a spreadsheet fer yer. The M's had 1283 pitcher wins and 477 batter losses. They also had 1336 hitter wins and 491 batter losses. That projects to a .483 winning record, or 78-84. Their actual record was 76-86, so I suppose we give Lloyd McClendon a "pass" in terms of his club's Hustle Board.
An interesting facet of this is that the M's outfield defense did not sink them below their expectation. Maybe you can tell Dr. D what balanced this out.
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Let's go back to 2014 ... the M's had 1232 batter wins (walks) and 396 losses. Their pitchers had 1317 wins (strikeouts) and 463 losses. That's a .478 winning percentage on the field, on average, for 77 wins. That team in reality had 87 wins, a massive +10 games upgrade on its "ability." You might recall we discussed this at the time; probably Lloyd's magic in the bullpen had a lot to do with it.
Fact remains, Lloyd was +8 over KW% in two years here, and that's the most you can ax. He got an A- by that report card, but that doesn't mean that he's the right 60-year-old to help Jerry DiPoto move into the next decade.
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Seems to me we've come up with 5 light bulbs this winter season:
- Gotta git me some Hisashi Iwakuma
- Cruz gotta DH most the time
- Miller has to be RF/LF/SS/McLemore ... same thing as saying, OF defense must be neutral, basepath runs gotta be at least meh
- Gotta get 4x relievers throwing 95+ for strikes
- Will be fun to assess potential moves via the Dart Board / Hustle Board paradigm
I don't think your D & Speed has to be good in a vacuum. But it might need to be that way for DiPoto's Mariners to be coherent. Seems to me that the Angels, er M's, are making all the right moves about the "crisp ballclub culture" mindset. Or not.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
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The skill that helped the Mariners balance out awful defense was team power. They were, park adjusted, the third most powerful line-up in the AL.
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...no McLemore from him...but we still have Chris Taylor and we still have O'Malley.
I am not sure I'm a big fan of this trade. :(
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I'm looking at it as if it is three trades, Matt:
1. LHRP for LHRP: Roll the dice, it's a pick 'em.
2. LoMo for a 22 yr old OBP machine of a CF with no pop. Hey, it was either LoMo at 1B or Trumbo and we got something that might be nice for LoMo. If this was a 1 'fer 1 trade, there is no way I would be terribly disappointed.I will point out here that Powell hit LHP better than RHP last year. I'm betting DiPoto sees him as a non-platoon guy. If he is an everyday guy (and glovey) then this was a steal for us.
3. Miller for Karns. The ascendency of Marte is the real meaning of the move. But beneath the main story is the fact that some MLB teams (there must be more than one) see Miller as their SS. And we have a bunch of guys who are going to battle for 4 and 5 in the rotation. Paxton (health), Elias, Montgomery, Karns. Not a bad group to go with, I think.
I'm a considerable Miller fan, for sure. But Miller wasn't going to be our SS, unless Marte went to CF, and DiPoto was quick to say that that wasn't happening.
I guess you could look at the trade as LoMo for Karns (we win) and Miller for Powell (jury is out).
DiPoto said that he wasn't going to be a big player in the FA field, but he's shown, in a hurry, that he's not afraid to be bold.
I'll miss Miller. I think I like the trade.
Edit: There is also a DiPoto statement that he's fine with Chris Taylor as our Bloomquist. I'm fine withthat, too. There also could be some Tyler Smith love from DiPoto (or "like") bouncing around here.
Again, I'm a big Brad Miller fan. He'll hit 18 homeruns someday. But he was not going to be our CF and he was not going to be our SS. Ditto at 2B and 3B. For us, he either becomes a versatile utility guy or a platoon COF. Either of those roles are pretty swap-able.
Karns and Taijuan ran identical 4.07 FIP's last year. Gimme the 23 year old kid, who is ready to make the big leap to fearsomeness.
In his Age 22 seasons, with 465 MLB innings under his belt, Felix had a line that looked like this (on top) and Taijuans was like that (on bottom)
1.385 WHIP 3.80 FIP 8.9 H/9 .8 HR/9 3.6 BB/9 7.8 K/9
1.196 WHIP 4.07 FIP 8.6 H/9 1.2HR/9 2.1 BB/9 8.3 K/9
Taijuan had, of course, all of 53 MLB innings uder his belt when the season began. In the 2nd half of '15 he allowed a line of .236-.279-.388. OK, he's not Felix, but he's about to become a minor RHP monster. On Opening Day '16, he's better than Karns. And I like Karns a lot.
The Miller for Karns deal is a throwback. It was a young, cost-controlled SS (for a bunch of teams) with an upside, for a young, cost-controlled RH starter with an upside. Those trades don't happen much anymore.
I think I like DiPoto already.
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Assuming we sign Iwakuma, we have Felix, Kuma, Karns, Walker and then a 4-way fight between Paxton, Elias, Montgomery and Nuno.
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I think that Montgomery is out of options so he'll have to make the club in the spring or get dumped. Nuno is a swing-man to me. There is value in that as long as he's cheap. No telling if Paxton or Kuma will be healthy, so Elias is good insurance.
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I think that, used sparingly to eat innings, Mike Monkey might be a solid bullpen piece, but the same is possibly true of Elias. Nuno as righty long man makes sense, and then you've got K-Pax for the main rotation spot so long as he's healthy.
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Mmmm. Montgomery in the pen. If he got the usual bump in velocity that an SP gets moving into the pen it could be almost lethal. The club would essentially have two long men - the righty Nuno and the lefty Montgomery. If Servais is open to it, that would allow him to mimic Tampa's strategy of rarely letting young pitchers see a lineup the third time through. Which I am totally on board with.
What was the Mariners' KBB WL%?