=== Jason Vargas, $9 ==

THE BEARDED PROPHET:  Soft-tossing lefty could deliver an okay year or could implode.  High contact, high flyball mix is "potentially explosive."  Give him to others at $10 and let them enjoy the ERA crash that is coming.

-10 RAR.

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The Mainframe Sez:  Ron's going by his skill set, which is ugly ... but not as ugly as the actual pitches this hombre throws.

I've never been able to see Jason Vargas, and that's never stopped him before... In this case, Baseball HQ doesn't give us much that we didn't already know.

Vargas' Safeco career turned around when he applied Don Wakamatsu's wisdom and began pitching off his changeup.

That change racked up a tremendous +1.83 runs per 100 pitches --- despite the fact that Vargas put heavy pressure on the pitch (30% of his pitch selection).

I guess, despite my being a Vargas cynic, I've got to admit that he's doing a Ray Miller thing right now:  Throw Strikes, Change Speeds, Pitch Ahead. 

And he's a lefty in Safeco, the guts of a burglar, so here I'll part ways with Ron.  The Varg-O-Tronic changeup has him punching the sheet metal with acceptable-quality production, and a 95-100 ERA+ in Safeco is the projection.

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Vargas earned $10 roto in 2010 ... in the first half alone.  Even in the second half, suffering a 3-8, 4.40 comeuppance, he still earned $4. 

So, $8 roto is pretty much the bottom for Mr. Vargas, and SSI will allow that he's liable to get through 180 somewhat oily innings.  I've got to admit that he's a major league 4-5 starter.

I was gonna say $11, but hey, he's lefty in Safeco and his competition is light.  Twelve bucks, standard innings-eater bid.

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As it stands right now, Jason Vargas is a hurkin' purple feather in Jack Zduriencik's cap.  How do you discern a guy like Vargas, through the 87 mph reports, from 3,000 miles away?  Greeeaaaat call, and it mattered.  Huge.

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LINKAGE DEPT:  Want to see an incredibly positive fanpoll on Jason Vargas?  This is from May 2010.  Before his 3+ ERA season. 

Note the % of don't-likes.  Come to think of it, I don't think I ever remember a Vargas criticism occurring on SSI.  Very possible that I like Vargas less than any other single person in the Seattle blog-o-sphere.  Which isn't a very high degree of dislike, of course.  But you think you're going to see this guy in Boston's or Anaheim's rotation?  :- )

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