Q.  In the Gospel According to SSI, how much gas does Cammy have left in the tank?

A.   We sat down ready to write at the age of 36 -- turning 37 next year -- Cameron had not yet shown even the onset of senility.  

That's because his OPS+ has been 111 and 111 consecutively, the last two years -- even a bit higher than his career 107.  Beautiful! 

His EYE ratio is steady as a rock too.  He is most definitely a fast-twitch guy with the physique, in principle, to play late into his 30's.

............

Actually, you look again, though, and the golf ball looks to have started its gentle drop towards the green:

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A)  His speed scores were lousy, 1H 2008, but rebounded.  Then, in 2009, Mikey's speed scores fell off the table:

1. SB's dropped all the way down to 7.  Seven SB's in a full season.
2. Grounded-into-DP's went way up, to 12 from his usual 4-8.
3. Runs as % of time on 1B went down.
4. His speed score, per Fangraphs, has gone from 7.0 to 6.3 to 5.5 to 4.3.

If Mikey were a boxer, the handspeed would be slipping.  Noticeably.

In fairness, his range in the outfield didn't slip.  Probably he glides just as well as he ever did; SX pertains more to a first step, and a half-a-step can be compensated for, through wisdom.

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B)  Cammy's platoon splits are alarming. 

His RH/LH splits have been gentle -- a 200 points.  He had to bash lefties to a nearly 1,000 OPS to achieve his solid-looking 2009 stats.

You have a tick less time against same-side pitching, and very often the struggles RH-on-RH are the only canary-in-the-coal-mine you get.

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C)  Cameron's SSLI score, the one that James just discovered, is among the worst in baseball for 2010.   Of all ballplayers 1876-2009, only 20% Cammy comps had a strong followup season, per James' criteria.

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D) The man will, after all, be 37 years old.

It doesn't do me any good to write "he hasn't hit the windshield yet."  Nobody has, until they do, you know whatuhmean?

Neither do players necessarily show you a nice smooth glide down, from 110 OPS+ to 100 to 90 to 80.  More frequently, they just come out one year and look terrible.

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E) Cameron's age-comps page on b-ref.com?  These are perhaps the most grim that I've ever seen.

These comps are generated on a Bill James historical system.  For an age-36 player, the comps are going off tons and tons of similarities.

Ron Gant was a speed player, too, with "young player's skills." At 36, he was coming off a very solid season.  He had a total of 350 AB's left, at this point, before he was out of baseball.

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=== Dr's R/X ===

Am not saying that Cammy might not be able to help the M's.  That's a different question.  Under the right circumstances, Cameron gives you $10-12m of veteran value in LF, for about $5m.  Similar value to, say, Jose Lopez.

But he is definitely year to year; that's not in question.  He's got about a 25% chance of doing a 2009 Beltre thang next year, and if he doesn't, the year after I'll put it at 75%.

If you're signing him to help you, make it a 1-year deal with club option.  Both years very affordable.

Whether that's what the M's need, a 1-year Civic when you have talented Scrubs like Saunders pushing, you decide.

My $0.02,

Dr D