Here's a poser. What is the most the 'typical' GM is willing to spend on a player who doesn't start?
I mean -- any team can go out and pick up the million-and-under vets to do temp work, (Langerhans, Hannahan, etc). But, there IS a dollar amount to PT ratio that each GM has somewhere as a guiding principle. Sexson didn't keep playing because of his production. He kept playing for as long as he did because he was making massive money. (We're a long, long way from Wally Pipp salaries today).
The "discount" Civic is a guy that is at least a possible guy to bench for a scrub. The star ... well, he ain't sittin', unless he's on the DL. Albert Pujols doesn't get a shot to show his stuff if he's blocked by Barry Bonds. (Brian Giles ended up in Pittsburgh, because his scrub salary was blocked at all three OF positions in Cleveland at the time).
But, how much financial committment does it take to trigger guaranteed PT? 10 million? 8? 6? I don't know the answer. But, I do believe one of the reasons that Civics are nice is that they can be "flexible". You CAN bench them, or force them into platoons. And if your prospects pan out, they're generally MUCH easier to move. The key, I believe, is making certain that you have DISCOUNT Civics -- rather than pimped out Civics.
Philisophically, an 8-foot jump shot is better than a 10-ft jump shot. But, taken to extreme this turns every possession into a drive for the basket. If you are *EVER* going to play your youth, and see who develops, then you MUST have a plan for how you're going to accomplish that. So far, this off-season, the talk has been on how to increase offensive production at EVERY spot. Must re-sign Branyan. Need a veteran upgrade from Beltre. Need a power bat in LF. Need a RH slugger at DH to pair with Griffey. Need a veteran catcher who can hit, because Moore is just a kid.
I just want to know one thing. What are the circumstances that say: "It's okay to hand 500 PAs to this kid and see what he does."
Q. Doc, thoughts on Mike Cameron for LF next year?
A. He's a 1-year value Civic who will give you $10-12m worth in LF, for $5-6m worth of salary, as Jose Lopez does.
You want to pay for a net profit on a Civic, short term? That is a philosophical choice against your options of (say) scrub Saunders and star Bay.
Do you plan to win your next pennant with Mike Cameron? If so, I guess you're planning on winning the pennant in 2010. I like the attitude. ;- )
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Q. Do you buy the idea that Cameron is worth more than Jason Bay?
A. Do you buy the idea that 30 GM's are subject to mass delusion?
It's never a good sign for Edward Nigma when he thinks the rest of the world's crazy :- )
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Actually, Cammy at his best -- age not considered here -- is a 5.5 runs-per-27 CF who adds a good number of runs in CF.
Bay is a 7.5 runs-per-27 LF who might or might not be a liability in LF.
IF your alternatives in CF are poor, there are cases in which the 30-year-old Cameron's value might blip up to touch the 30-year-old Bay's, in theory and in the real world.
An average-solid CF with a real good mitt, he might be argued to be in the same general ballpark of value as a #4 hitter in LF.
It's philosophical, it depends on the D-spectrum, and it depends on exactly who your alternatives are, right then, in CF and LF. In contexts ideal for the CF, sure, the two can be equal. In other contexts, the LF comes out way ahead.
And the industry confirms that. They pay the LF. They don't pay the CF. I'm not saying that ends the discussion, but it's a piece of evidence that should be considered.
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Cameron would not be playing CF in Safeco, so it's a moot point. You're talking about a 5.0, 5.5 run/27 player, with a very good glove, in LF.
Cammy's worth much more, to a team that is bleeding in CF. That's a different conversation.
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Q. How would Safeco affect Cammy at this point?
A. Cameron has always been one of the most extreme RH pull, flyball hitters in baseball. His fly balls died on the warning track here back when he was young and strong.
He is .224/.330/.373 lifetime in Safeco -- 303 games played. At age 37 that wouldn't figure to get better.
One thing he does have going for him, is that he has an effervescent personality and doesn't let the stats get him down.
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Q. And the league switch?
A. He left the AL at age 30, and just spent ages 31-36 in the National League. He'd be coming back to the AL at age 37.
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Q. Dr's R/X?
A. I'm a Stars & Scrubs guy. I don't block Michael Saunders with a 1-year Civic, unless I think I've really got upside -- a Russell Branyan or something.
Cammy would come to Safeco fighting an uphill battle on many fronts -- Safeco, the league switch, his 37th birthday, etc. There's no reason to block a talented Scrub for a Civic with 240,000 miles and a bunch of dings.
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Q. What's the devil's advocate? If Cammy came here, what would be the bright side?
A. Cammy does walk, he does draw ball four. He runs the bases and he's got some pop. His game is repeatable. So his 5.0 runs per 27 are pretty blinkin' solid, at least until he truly hits the wall.
You DO have a league-average hitter, or close to it, and three superb gloves in the outfield. It would be like having Endy Chavez with a 100 OPS+ bat. That has its plusses.
And Cammy would probably do it for $5m or something, providing you a net performance profit of $6m or so.
I'll take Lackey and Saunders/Field over (say) Piniero/Washburn and Mike Cameron. But if defense in LF is an absolute, at least Cameron would give you a league-average bat.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
In my opinion, Bay would be "Bay instead of Saunders"
Cammy would be "Cammy and Saunders"
Z's vision for a Safeco powerhouse is bunches of athletic fielders who can flash leather all over the diamond and provide 90-110 OPS+: defense & flexibility & athleticism & some level of patience -- consider the Cammy universe:
Cammy RH lf, cf, rf, dh
Figgins SH 3b, 2b, lf, dh
Saunders LH lf, cf, rf, dh
Tui RH 3b, 2b, dh (lf, rf, 1b?)
Hannahan LH 3b, ss, 2b
(Hannahan over Hall due to lefthandedness and ability to back up at short.)
Bulk up on RH hitters? No problem. Want lefties everywhere? (Saunders cf, Figgins lf, Hannahan 3b). I think it would be kind of a baseball "40 minutes of hell" approach -- fresh legs coming at you from every direction all the time.
Obviously, Ackley (LH lf, cf, 2b, 1b) fits like a glove when he's ready.
Then Adrian Gonzalez can get 180 RBI driving all these guys in.
Of course, that's just total speculation, but I think it's interesting.
As a 4th outfielder spotting against LHPs for Saunders.. I like it. I just don't know if the price is going to be worth it for Cammy in that role.
I like the idea of trading for Seth Smith better. He has the trade value of a good #4outfielder and the potential of an impact starting LF in Safeco. Saunders can spend another year polishing up in AAA, and we get to see if Smith can breakout in Safeco. It doesn't eat up any $ and opens up a roster spot as well.
Good luck on the SP at this point.. Lackey is a bad idea with numbers being thrown around, so it comes down to Sheets...or maybe a Washburn type in FA. Sheets please, on a Harden type deal.
Ordinarily I wouldn't even consider grabbing a one year stop gap when I have a very talented youngster ready to contribute, especially when the vet's bat is a terrible fit for the park. However, Cammy is one of my absolute favorite players and having him back would actually mean more to me than Griffey's return.
There's a stat that you left out, Doc: 393-255. That's the record the Mariners had with Mike on the team. That's almost 400 wins in 4 years, by far the best span in the franchise's entire history. And that's not just one "miracle" season padding the numbers, each of those teams finished with more wins than in any of the other 29 years the M's were without him! Plus, the moment he left, the team fell flat on its face, losing more games than it had in 20 years. A similar thing also happened in San Diego (88 and 89 wins with Cammy, 99 loss disaster without). Of course that wasn't entirely his doing and he isn't as good now as he was then. But one thing that makes him stand out, and something that I'm surprised you didn't mention, is that he is a fun, easy going spirit who keeps a clubhouse loose. His departure probably allowed the loser mentality to take over the team which made things much worse than they should have been. That's why he could be a bigger boost than his numbers suggest. Can you imagine him and Griffey together? They'd get along smashingly! It would probably guarantee a .400 season from Ichiro. ;)
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Sharing time with Saunders, I love the idea, in a non-Bay scenario, of course.
Lackey, Figgins, Adrian Gonzalez, Saunders/Cammy in a 4-to-make-3, a cheap Bedard contract to boot... I'll tell my wife not to buy me any Xmas presents.