Q.  So you think Washburn's pretty good.

A.  Washburn is what he is. 

He's an average-solid "pitch to contact" American League pitcher ... with extreme reliability.   

Washburn is below-average in front of a lousy team, like Mike Hargrove's, and above-average in front of a good one, like Don Wakamatsu's.

Wash's REL has a ton of value.  As James says, "most of a player's value is in being average."

One of the key differences between real GM's, and those outside the game, is that GM's understand the high value of a very predictable, league-average player.

GM's understand the concept of stoploss, understand that once the season starts, it's hard to field-tourniquet an amputated limb.  On paper, it looks easy to bring up an RLP and bank your 4.90 ERA.  GM's have seen the years in which that ERA was 6.90.  :- )

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Q.  His career xFIP is 4.73.  He's a meatball.

A.  But his career ERA is 4.10, and we're talking about close to 2,000 innings pitched.  It's time to go by his ERA. 

4.10, that's a good little swack better than league-average .... "league-average" being a good thing for a pitcher throwing 200 innings in the American League. 

What's Washburn's ERA+, 105 or 110? ... OK, it's 109 for his career.  A.J. Burnett's is 110; Ted Lilly's is 107.

He's 200 innings in the bank.  C'mon, let's give credit where it's due.  I'm not a huge Washburn fan, especially the way he did Johjima and everything.  But the day has come to acknowledge him as just a quality starting pitcher in the AL.

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Q.  What's quality worth?

A.  Washburn has been worth $7.6m per season, over the last 5 seasons, no injuries.

That was in front of a bad team.  $10m in front of a good team, that's absolutely reasonable.   I realize that we'd like to pay him less than fair, would like to get a bargain.  But 3/ $25-30m, in front of a good defense, that's what Washburn will produce.

He's 20 runs better than replacement, year after year.  That's $8m in salary.  ML quality doesn't make minimum wage, and neither does it make $4-5m per season.

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Q.  If Washburn is an average-solid "55" starting pitcher, high REL, in a vacuum.... what is he in front of Zduriencik's team?

A.  Right.  Jarrod Washburn is a reliable 180-200 innings of a 100-110 ERA+ in a vacuum (such as pitching for Mike Hargrove).

In Safeco, he's better than that.   Jarrod Washburn in Safeco, with a great defense, is an above-average starting pitcher in the American League.  End of story.

It's as though you played in Fenway and saw a 3B or catcher who pulled the ball 350 feet to straightaway left once a game.  You don't sneer at the pairing.  You exploit it.

Jarrod Washburn is a picture-perfect matchup for this defense and park; in it, he's a good pitcher, period.

I'm not saying I want him, but he is definitely underrated.

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Q.  Couldn't anybody pitch in front of Zduriencik's team, in his house?

A.  Well, Doogie's HR rate was 1.8 or something.  Olson and Vargas and French saw the clock strike 12.

The defense and park will help anybody.  But if you're going to war, you might want that 100 consecutive quality pitches per night.

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Q.  Is that what you want, a reliable average-solid or above-average SP?

A.  Here's where we get down to philosophy.

In principle, you always want a $20 Cliff Lee + a $4 Ryan Rowland-Smith (or even Doug Fister) as opposed to two $12 Jarrod Washburns.  Lee gives you $20, and then you swap the tag partner out until you find a guy producing $8 instead of $4.

But hang on now.  Washburn was a $20 pitcher for the Mariners in 2009 (literally).   If you sign him for $6-8m, you're probably going to get $12m worth of production.

...............

How confident are you in the Scrubs for 2010?   You've got Felix, Lee, RRS, and then what?

If you like Fister real well, if there is a Field of young pitchers you think can perform well, great, cast the dice.  I'd much rather have Lee + Brandon Morrow than two Washburns.  If you're confident in Ian Snell and can get Aaron Harang, that beats Jarrod Washburn x 2.

But the M's are thin at the BOR right now, after the League deal, and if those young guys start getting Garrett Olsoned and you passed on a 3.50 ERA Washburn because he isn't a 'sexy' free agent, you're going to cost yourself the division. 

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Q.  Washburn or Harang?

A.  Harang, of course.  Assuming you can get a bona fide 8k, 2.5 ace for the #3 slot, then of course you do that.

Right now, I don't care much for what the M's have after Felix and Lee -- I've got questions about RRS' ability to go 180 innings, you know I've about written Snell off, Morrow is gone, French is no factor, and after that it's speculation.

If you're left holding the bag with no other improvements available, you'd better believe that 2 x $8m or 3 x $7m is a serious option for the M's.

I'd like to see the M's do better than Washburn.  But if it's this staff going into 2010 or sign Washburn, I want Washburn.

....

The 2009 M's lead the AL in ERA, and after Felix, Jarrod Washburn was the biggest reason they did.  I'd like to see that staff, plus Cliff Lee.

Cheers,

Dr D