1
The Magadan comp is a good one and not particularly exciting. That's an asset I'd try to swap out if I could get trade value for it.
Sean Casey is a more interesting path, for sure, although still not exciting.
.
Sizzler: Justin Smoak
Drago axs, What if Smoak can run a .400 OBP with a .400 SLG? Would that be good?
Spectator comps him, right now, to Dave Magadan, and Bat chimes in with Sean Casey. Would you want either player, in view of the fact that we've got Romero, Liddi, Montero 1B probably, and other talented young players in the wings? And you have to spend your FA money somewhere...
Supposing that Smoak were Magadan or Casey. First question, is that what he's going to be. Second, what's that worth to you.
............
If you just joined us:
- Smoak's OBP is up to .374 (!!) but his SLG is way under .399
- His OPS+ at 110
- But remember, an OBP-heavy guy is worth more than his OPS+, a lot more (OBP = 1.8 SLG)
- But remember, an OBP-only guy who is slow, is worth less than (um) Michael Bourn
I don't want a first baseman who is slow, has a nice OBP, and a low SLG. Do. Not. Want.
But! Smoak's Runs Created Per Game is almost 5 now ... that's up from 3.5 last year and it was 3.0 for most of the year. Justin Smoak's 24 walks have stopped the hemorrhaging. He is now helping the Mariners while we figure out what to do. That's how you look at that. 1B is still totally unresolved. Except now we can relax during the surgery; the patient is not flatlined.
............
It says here that Smoak is probably (80%) just in a transition stage. Kevin Youkilis slugged .400 for three years; later he slugged .550. Tino Martinez, Nick Johnson, and a billion other guys raised their ISO's by 100+ points once they jelled.
You don't have to cap Smoak's ceiling at a .400 SLG. While he's got a 4.7 RC/27, and is making big mechanical strides, you can wait-and-see on his ability to drive the ball.
..............
Wish he'd learn to bunt, though. Wish everybody would. By ignoring the shift you might as well allow the defense 11 players by rule. How many games would you win?
For those who wonder whether I ever differ with Bill James ... this is one of the hottest debates at BJOL. He hates the shift for the defensive team. Just this year, though, the data has come in fairly conclusively, as teams accelerated the strategy exponentially.
The shift is way up around baseball, and it's cutting into offense, big time. I think it's being done 3x as much as last year, and last year it was done a lot.
It is a clear and obvious conceit by batters, to swing away against an artificial defensive setup. Eventually the game will evolve to address it. Hey, for that matter, it IS evolving: defenses are now taking massive liberties with the fact that LHB's stubbornly insist on swinging. If I had an MLB team, I'd be shifting like crazy, every blinkin' chance I got. (DO the Mariners shift?!)
Isn't it interesting that in the NFL, there really aren't any conceits comparable to this one? Think about it. Nobody blitzes two linebackers every 3rd-and-long just because they love the glory QB sack (that is, the baseball home run).
In the NFL it is war. Winning is all that matters. If Justin Smoak were an NFL player, he'd be in the cage tomorrow, learning to bunt. Odd thing is, it's not like he's got 35 homers to protect!
.
John Jaso OBP-without-SLG Dept.
Drago asked specifically about a .400 OBP and .400 SLG. If he were going to do that, then sure. Precious few players run a .400 OBP without being stars.
The problem is that if you don't have scary power, pitchers can simply choose to stop walking you. (Right now they are nibbling and picking at Smoak's cold zones, and he isn't biting; his war with pitchers is in tremendous flux.)
Last winter SSI pointed out that John Jaso's OBP was very likely to drop because his .456 SLG was over his head, and when his SLG dropped, so would his OBP. Anybody notice the results on that?
| John Jaso | OBP | SLG | BB | K |
| 2012, M's | .394 | .456 | 56 | 51 |
| 2013, A's | .339 | .313 | 14 | 26 |
I haven't noticed. Has the blog-o-sphere revisited its excoriation of Zduriencik yet? Anybody ever say "My Bad" on the way they fricasee'd Z?
:: whistling innocently ::
We might ask, does the Seattle blog-o-sphere ever just flatly say, My Bad?
Anyway. Smoak is not Jaso. But one common point: Smoak isn't walking because he's got a diamond-hard .370 OBP skill. He's walking because they're trying to get him to bite at certain pitches, and right now he's not doing it. Keep an eye on the ballgame; it will evolve. Several times.
.............
If I thought Justin Smoak were going to OBP .380 and SLG .400, I would trade him to some team that over-values WAR. Because at his salary, that's going to produce a nice surplus value.
He's not a free agent until 2017; next year is his first year of arb eligibility. If he does .380 OBP, well, he's not going to finish with 3 homers. He'll wind up the year with 2-3 WAR, and he'll be doing it at half the cost. "Logically" he'll be a nice young net value player if his OBP is high. Me? Not interested in that player.
But. His power may follow his strike zone control; that is the BaseballHQ operating assumption. What do you think in Smoak's case?
.
Comments
2
One way I love to evaluate players is to see where they sit among their peers in the league. I got to ESPN or MLB.com and use the sortable stats feature, sort by AL and position.
The logic is that building a winning roster requires your players to outplay their peers - at least at some positions. Too many players below the league median (7th or 8th in the AL) isn't going to cut it.
Right now Smoak is 5th among AL 1st basemen in OBP but 15th in SLG and 14th in OPS.
Obviously his performance is well below the median 1B at this point. Even getting his OBP & SLG to .400 wouldn't do much more for his standing. That would only move him up to 4th in OBP and still leave him 15th in SLG.
The AL median SLG for 1B is right about .500 and the median OPS is around .850.
In other words, Smoak has a long way to go to be in the middle of the pack offensively as an AL 1B. If the OBP were to settle in around .375, he'd need to slug .480 to be a middle of the pack player at 1B. Hard to envision at this point...
3
Smoak
Youkilis
Smoak
Youkilis
Smoak
Youkilis
AA
AA
AAA
AAA
Since 9/1
2004-'07
BA
0.328
0.333
0.252
0.263
0.288
0.28
OBP
0.449
0.479
0.381
0.377
0.392
0.383
SLG
0.481
0.477
0.407
0.431
0.441
0.434
PA
227
614
559
504
260
1648
BB
39
117
93
72
37
215
K
35
58
102
78
48
289
I don't think Smoak is a .100 ISO guy, he's been around .150 every season, and now that he's striking the ball with force consistently, the power levels will come back there. Patience improves power and contact...eventually.
4
Hey Doc, thanks for bringing his BB's up. I have a thread posted that should soon pop up on that issue. Smoak is walking WAY more than his historical average and his power is WAY down. He's on pace for 8 homers in 600 PA's. Those two numbers are unlikley to continue to dance together in that manner, unless he's a Davey Mags-type, as you stated. But to get there you have to believe that THIS Smoak is the real, for the rest of his career, Smoak.....and this isn't just a hot streak. I'm not sure. Mag's was a .323-.448 MiLB guy. Smoak is .279-.400. Mags is .309-.409 at AAA. Smoak, .252-.381. Maybe Smoak has finally found his game? I'm hoping so......sure would be nice if he could play 60% of the time at 3B, like Magadan did.
Casey is a tougher comparison. He twice whacked 70 x-base hits in a season. He did it early enough (at age 24) to establish that potential and a certain fear in pitchers. Smoak has topped out at 39. Even in his 18 game hot streak (essentially platooned, too), his rate doesn't meet Casey's.
If Smoak is a .290-.390-.390 (his .292-.412-.417 from the left side this year is fueled by a .382 BABIP) he holds down the job until you get a slugger to replace him at 1B. But were he a Magadan or Youkilis, then you could move his around from 3B to 1B to meet your need....and he would have increased trade value.
But, as you said, if he doesn't strat denting some walls, he's not going to get this many walks. If his walks go, his value (sans power) goes, too.
If he explodes all is great. If he implodes again, we know his true value. If he remains where is currently is, he's a piece to be used. SF won a WS last year with a guy quasi-similar. But Belt was a .291-.436-.535 guy at AAA and even better at AA. At A+, he was .387-.499-.624! His pedigree might be a bit better, don't you think?
5
The Mariners viewed Dustin Ackley as a Sean-Casey-type first baseman ... and so they made him into a second baseman.
6
Casey is what we can reasonably expect. But yeah - Youk is the upside, and I think Smoak has some serious upside.
7
Sean Casey didn't strike out much, JT Snow is a better mid-level comparison, especially considering he had to give up switch hitting, which is a looming problem for Smoak if he doesn't improve against lefties.
8
Lifetime Smoak is .673 OPS vs. lefties, .692 vs. righties. Last season he had a .703 vs. lefties, and .627 vs. righties. As Smoak rebuilds his career as a hitter, and gets smarter at it, I think we'll find the problems he's having right now against lefties will regress. He's not going to continue with a .457 OPS against lefties like he has so far this season, and it's a mere 44 PAs.