I've always felt that learning is exponential. Whether it's a mathematical concept, a piece of music, or an athletic technique, in the early stages it seems like lots of time and energy is poured in and barely any drops of understanding and utility are wrung out of the metaphorical rag of knowledge. However, the more you practice, your progress seems to accelerate, pretty soon you're applying it everywhere and with increasing frequency. That steep takeoff won’t ever take place unless the foundation that took so many frustrating hours to create has been properly laid.
Jack Z has bet his job on these young talents hitting the mastery stage before the benefit of the doubt of Chuck and Howard expires. So far we’ve seen these kids put in countless hours of work, and the output, in the cases of Smoak, Ackley, and Montero, has been marginal at best, and non-existent at worst. BUT, look at the last 28 days of Justin Smoak: .277/.413!/.400, with a 15/18 eye. Straight up Nick Johnson territory. That isn’t luck either. I think that’s Justin Smoak finally playing as Justin Smoak and not as “Gotta play like the centerpiece of the Cliff Lee trade”, and as the weather warms up that slugging should climb some too.
As far as Ackley and Montero go, your guess is as good as mine, but they seem to be making incremental progress. They aren’t as far along on the curve yet.
Seager and Saunders are feeling the g-forces of their acceleration. If they continue their CURRENT pace they are borderline all-stars, and that’s not taking into account very probable improvement from them.
I just get the sense that the young M’s have reached the part of the curve where things should start to trend upward quickly now. They aren’t winning these series’ on luck. They are outperforming the other teams. Name one player who is OVERPERFORMING. The only case that jumps out is Wilhelmsen, and that’s just because of expected babip regression. But he isn’t playing over his head. Maybe Raul’s homer streak was a little lucky, but his overall numbers are within reason of preseason projections.
J Saunders, Maurer, the bullpen, and SS, seem to be the weak spots. BUT if you’re gonna argue that Wilhemsen is bound to regress, then you have to say those weak spots will too. Maurer should get progressively better and Saunders isn’t great, but he’s not a 6.00 ERA pitcher.
Good time to be an M’s fan IMO.
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We seldom read other sites before writing our own postgame, but tonight we wandered over and lazily checked one of them. Big Mistake. That's what the Govuhnatuh would say.
Going from the sheer sports pleasure of watching the game on TV, to the recap, induced some major vertigo ... hey, we warned yer, Doc! Keep yer eyes on yer own paper already.
Too late:
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Once Upon A Time ...
We had a bad feeling going into the game, because Harang is a slop sandwich and on Friday we'd already fouled up our only longshot to win the series.
Then we heard we had no starting pitcher - and the one that subbed in, is an even worse slop sandwich.
The M's did win this game, because there's a lot of luck in baseball. It was fun to watch, even if it wasn't actually real.
In 2012, Noesi was so bad that ... [insert double underlines on Bad].
Tonight, a lot of bad things happened to Noesi, of course. But, surprisingly, he did a few good things, which if he ever did them again, could diminish the effect of the future bad things that will of course happen.
Mike Morse is not good, but tonight he was vintage: a net wash, but interesting. He's like Kendall Gill (google it).
Ryan got robbed of a hit. That was a major bummer.
Montero is a joke behind home plate.
Dustin Ackley will never be any good if he doesn't start pulling the ball, as he happened to once tonight.
Tom Wilhelmsen is due to hit a windshield and leave a greasy olive stain.
Things could be worse; the Mariners are in second.
.... much of which we could theoretically cosign :- ) but...
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Goodnight Now, Kiddies
That's the verdict after this series win in the Bronx?!
If we want to sip a cold one and throw peanut shells at the screen, kewl. To each his own. But .... here's what we're getting at.
For Nine Hundred Years Have We Watched Baseball. Our Own Counsel Will We Keep As To Who Is Objective. The local jeremiads ain't it, we don't s'pose. Objectivity is like what Baker does: last year he was screaming bloody murder, and this year he's telling people something good is brewing.
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Another Bedtime Storee
The Mariners, right now, are currently about the 5th-best team in the league, overcoming their youthful Scrub problems by dint of Heroic Efforts from their Stars. With a few Scrub fungi-blations, they have the hope of being more.
Oliver Perez is out of his mind -- in more ways than one.
Hector Noesi has improved by, oh, 50% of the distance he needs to; he's made remarkable progress, though it isn't yet enough IMHO.
Tom Wilhelmsen isn't going to finish with 100% saves, but he's a serviceable white-knuckle closer. Did you notice that tonight, on a 3-1 pitch, Brett Gardner tried to grovel a bunt single? Think about it...
The M's lineup right now is beating good pitchers. They had Andy Pettitte nibbling, picking, and afraid to throw a strike. Dr. D can't believe his eyes. How long has it been?
Mike Morse is a legit MLB(TM) cleanup hitter, with 70-75 PWR and a 60 HIT tool. The M's lineup is legitimized because it has four hitters now who can get tough RBI. It's got four players who can deliver the big blow, in Yankee Stadium or Fenway, against a top pitcher.
The M's team ERA was 4.50 the first 25 games; it's 2.80 or so since then. Harang is a short-timer, but it's a juicy list of pitchers that's vulturing him.
Dustin Ackley is wayyyy too passive at the plate, which is why he's got ugly stats against fastballs and beautiful stats against sliders and changeups. He's taking such a long look at the ball that all he can hit are offspeed pitches, which we presume they'll soon stop throwing him. But he can't download the pitch sequences overnight. Looks like probably another 400 AB's for him.
Smoak is showing signs, in fits and spots. How much progress, you can tell from the amount that he played this series. Nothing impressive. But he's keeping the career alive.
It remains maddening, night after night, that Brendan Ryan is allowed to kill rallies, under the idea that Offense Ain't His Job. Actually his 007 OPS+ is licensed to cancel the OPS+ of at least two teammates, let us say, Kendrys Morales' and Michael Morse's.
.............
The M's are a young, hungry team and they're looking kind of like the Seahawks looked when they were just about to take off. Except, not to that degree.
Probably this is the most dynamic moment the Seattle franchise has experienced since 2004, which ain't saying much. Possibly in 2009 there was some date on which the Dynamism Factor was higher than it is right now. To paraphrase GM Jan Timman, the Mariner season is pregnant with possibility.
But hey. Why not savor the goodie when it shows up? You spent long enough chewing dirt.
.............
The Yankees are blinkin' lucky they didn't get swept. They were the second-best team this weekend.
In the 3-game series between the New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners: the Mariners played better, they deserved to win, and they did win.
Your friend,
Dr D
Comments
You can't waste your time with the lesser lights. You gotta do what I do, and wait until Doc's post is up.....oh yeah. That's a problem.
You just ain't gonna make the blogosphere scene, Doc, if you can't adopt that hipster attitude.
But don't ever change.
M's are 12-6 since the TX trip. I've been hard on GMZ & Wedge for poor lineup construction and not bringing up Triunfel / Franklin, but credit where credit is due: 1) Wedge held the team together through that first tough month with no public locker room friction 2) The players play hard for Wedge 3) The M's pitching staff is anchored by 3 free agent pickups that cost the team no talent to obtain - Iwakuma (a free #1 starter - maybe GMZ's best move ever), Wilhelmsen, & Perez (aka nails). Has any other GM in baseball picked up so much free pitching talent? 4) Morse's acquisition for Jaso,combined with the free acquisition of Shoppach, has changed the tenor of the M's lineup night in and night out - great move by GMZ. Now sign Morse for an extension, please.
Drayer has good summary: "Tonight was different. Tonight was big. To go into Yankee Stadium and overcome some bad calls that some would call home town calls and come away with a series win over the first place team means something to a young team. To get a win where your starter is scratched and your young bullpen is pushed is even bigger. To hold a lead in a building where you were not able to do the same two nights previous is even bigger. The team won a game that they probably couldn't have won a year ago."
That about says it all for a M's fan like me. Blowers keeps talking about a team not getting too high or too low after a stretch of games, guess that goes for ordinary fans like me too. They aren't perfect but at least they are very watchable right now.
Let's face it. That game last night was the kind of game which despite a tough battle the M's would find a way to lose, or the Yankees would find a way to win (see Tuesday's game). Once Ryan couldn't make an admittedly difficult play and the Yankees made the score 3-2 with runners on first and third with one out, you figured the jig was up. But...the...M's...battled...and kicked...and clawed...and held on, even after Brett Gardner singled with one out in the 9th and promptly stole second AND THIRD.
Might as well enjoy the ride. No one knows if it's a sign of things to come or another hot stretch that will in the end be engulfed by another season of despair (or somewhere in between). There's plenty of time to remind myself that these weren't your father's Yankees. That lineup right now is middle of the pack at best.
Stars and Scrubs (when do you implement this strategy)
Yes, Ryan and Andino are convenient targets but let’s dig a little deeper
For some reason Ackley gets pass when it comes to his performance at the plate and I’m sure that’s due to the fact there are players to his right and left performing just as bad or worse that allows him to continue to slide under the radar. Isn’t the stars and scrubs strategy to be used to substitute out players who are performing well below major league average with others on the roster who show promise (i.e. Franklin and maybe Truinfel).
Ackley was supposed to be an offensive force when drafted, the best hitting prospect in his draft. His college teammate Seager has blown right past him. A team who desires to win a pennant would not keep on the roster a second baseman who has a sub 600 OPS he's at .579, only slugging .289 and NO Stolen Bases (I thought he was supposed to have some speed - is his ankle still causing him problems, what's going on with Ackley, this was someone Z was going to build around - but why even keep him on the big league roster, he may not be an automatic out like Ryan/Andino - but he is the next best thing).
Wait what about Smoak with an OPS of 680 and only slugging 317 - this looks like a Casey Kotchman debacle all over again at least Casey slugged 336 and we all thought that was horrific.
Why did Z the great talent evaluator throw Carp away for absolutely nothing? - Carp only has 38ABs but his OPS is 1127. Yes I know it’s only 38AB's and only 2 home runs, but that is as many home runs as Smoak and Ackley have totaled this year and they have a combined 250 AB's.
Carp has 9xbh this year in the aforementioned 38AB's well at least if you combine Smoak and Ackley's total they can best him an aggregate of 12xbh's.
I could add in Montero here also with an OPS of 591 and slugging only 333, but why pile on.
Z picked these players to be the cornerstone to build on, and he continues to say he is building a winning team the right way.
I hope these players can turn it around, if not send them back to the minors and they can work on the things they needed to work on before they were rushed up to the big leagues - bring up the next group, i.e. Franklin and Truinfel, maybe these guys can bring a little more to the table than the players on the current roster and if these two do struggle as most rookies are wont to do then send then back down to AAA to work on their weaknesses: working on skills after having your weaknesses exposed at the Major league level is somewhat analogous to the slo-mo training Smoak did over the offseason, I’m assuming the game is a step or two slower at AAA allowing a player the chance to regroup and address potential flaws that had not previously been exposed. Letting a player continue to flail away on the major league roster and hoping they can figure it out is like teaching someone to swim by throwing them into the pool after tying a weight around them while encouraging them to swim by saying just try harder.
I thought replacing our failing players at the major league level, by players who are showing success at AAA is what a stars and scrubs strategy would prescribe.
Hey I’m excited that the M’s won this series and they seem to be on a little run of late.
But there is a big difference between the way the Yanks and the M’s staff their roster. The Yankees have players that can perform at this level on a regular basis – when they do call a player up they are expected to perform – you would never see them keep a play on their roster for 2 years hoping to develop them into a successful ball player. The minor leagues are for that, once you get to the major leagues you are expected to be able to win games day in and day out. I’ll say that again when they show up to the park they are expected to win that game not just when their number 1 or 2 pitcher is scheduled to start.
I’m no Yankees fan, and although I lived in NY/NJ for over 13yrs I could never route for them – but I do appreciate the level of excellence they have obtained and continue to maintain. I think the bar we have as Mariner fans have been lowered substantially due to the absolute failure of this franchise over past several years. So much so that when we become optimistic when we see our young first baseman put up numbers that’s barely acceptable for a shortstop - we better take look a long in the mirror and recalibrate what we should find acceptable in our team.
Was following along last night with Gamday, and Noesi was mixing his pitches and locating much better than I remember him doing last season. IIRC, he was moving around his 91-93 fb, a 83-85 ch, and a slider. He was even doubling up sometimes on offspeed pitches. How did he look to everyone else?
The imported Yankee battery worked well together. Would be down for a few more spot starts to give our 3/4/5 SP a rest.
The team has 12 wins and 6 losses in their last 18 games. That is success. Whether they can sustain it or not is the question that only time will tell.
There must be something in the DNA of most Mariners fans that keeps them from enjoying baseball even when the team is playing well. It really is a "glass half empty" fan base.
Hey I love seeing the M's take it to the Yanks and taking the series - I hope this team can do what the A's did last year and make a run for the play-offs
But I also remember when the M's of the early 80's led by Bruce Bochte and Tom Paciorek would take a couple games from the Yanks and the entire fan base would act like we just won the world series. But at the end of the day those Yanks were contenders and those M's were still a sub .500 club. (of course back then if you had 10K fans in the Kingdome for a game that was considered a large crowd)
As I detailed in the post the way the roster is currently constructed we have some serious headwinds to overcome: at any one time our lineup consists of 4 hitters that to say the least are not good.
And yes we have some potentially good up and coming hitters i.e. Saunders & Seager, its not like they are monsters such that pitcher fear pitching to them. They are just your prototypical major league players and as fans we want them to be more. I'd say currently our only hitter that can truly inspire fear would be Morse, and that is a good thing.
I'm hoping Smoak's new slo-mo training technique turns his career around, I hope Ackley second rework of his swing this year will allow him to hit the ball the way the talent evaluators expected he would when he came into the league and I hope Montero lives up the hype when we traded for him and I hope Ryan or Andino can hit the ball.
I hope the M's win a world series, but that's a lot of hoping.
In the Navy you can paint over rust and the ship will look good for a couple of days, or you can do it right chip the rust away/prime/paint and the ship will look good for a month or so until the salt water does it's thing A few wins for the M's can hide the rust, but until the roster as a whole begins to perform at big league levels there will be more bumps in the road ahead.
Go M's, Beat Cleveland
I'd like to be clear, here. I am not Nathan Bishop. I am Nathan Hoover. My infrequent ramblings should not reflect on the writing going on at LL. Just wanted to make sure that nothing was being mis-represented in people's minds. : )
Changing the over-all negative psychology of the fans, which in turn will be reflected in improving attendance, is a difficult, longer-term proposition. As you point out, just winning a few games isn't enough. A critical component in this process is exciting young stars that can be marketed by the team's PR machine. Which is another reason to bring up Franklin, particularly when he will help win games as well.
Seager and Saunders were intended to be complimentary players. The future 3-4-5 was intended to be Ackley, Montero and Smoak. Maybe with Ackley at 2 and somebody like Saunders filling the Buhner spot at #5.
It's not working out that way thus far, but what do these players look like in the last month (well, 28 days)?
Ackley: .301/.363/.384/.746, with 7 BB against 15 Ks. Still too passive on fastballs but he's making it work against offspeed. When he starts turning it loose on fastballs again he could get that power up... or if he doesn't and they just feed him an exclusive diet of heat then maybe he'll falter again. No, Ackley doesn't steal bases, but he RUNS them incredibly well. Just in this series we saw him beat out a couple of force-outs easily. He's a good #2 with his baserunning and current OBP skills, at least against righties. There are improvements there. He's still flushing all the bad advice he's been given. Part of Stars and scrubs is being patient when a scrub-salary IS doing well, and right now Ackley's more than treading water.
Smoak: .274/.408/.403/.811, with 14BB/16K. He's hitting (very) poorly as a righty but he's seeing time off against lefties so it's not killing him. A .800 OPS platoon player isn't what we want from him by any means, but he's certainly not killing us at this point. And if you're GONNA have abysmal platoon splits, please be good against righties since there are twice as many of them to face. And since we don't have any first basemen worth promoting, it's simply a matter of whether Morales playing first more often to get Montero some extra ABs is better (and who wants Montero only facing tough righties?). Speaking of...
Montero: .200/.281/.420/.701, 6BB/12K. Jesus has only been in half the games, is flailing against his favorable platoon (lefties), is throwing balls 6 feet wide of the mark and late, is not getting any DH appearances, and generally looks like a square peg for a round hole. This is not necessarily all his fault. I'm sure it's very hard to hit when you're only a part time player at a tough defensive position. I remember Olivo getting crushed here and going on to good success elsewhere for several years. Zunino is not applying extra pressure - dude is striking out like a blind man down in AAA even if he has huge power when he does manage to connect. He can be delayed. His callup is nowhere near imminent. But Montero has to hit. The other guys are hitting even in reduced appearances (like Smoak) so it's Montero's turn. He's on the club for his bat, after all. He needs to be in the lineup MORE, not less. Protecting the Mariners from him is also protecting him from future success and us from the knowledge of whether that success is likely to come here at whatever defensive position he might occupy.
Of course, it'd be easier to pay for those lessons with a lower OPS-slot filling the lineup if our SS weren't so blindingly inept...
A Franklin callup gets you more time for Montero in the lineup without hanging too many black holes in there. I promise it's a good idea, especially since he's scaring AAA so much that the pitchers won't throw him ANYthing to hit. He has 9 walks against 4 Ks in his last 10 games, while maintaining a .300+ BA and a .500 slugging. The word is out - Nick Franklin will ruin your day as an opposing pitcher if you let him. So they won't let him, and he won't go fishing to help them out (unlike Zunino, who is expanding his zone now that no one will throw him pitches to hammer).
It's gotta happen sometime, right?
~G
I keep humming that "sometime" tune, G. I keep thinking the louder I hum, the closer "sometime" becomes. You, too, I know.
My humming volume dial is currently all the way to the right, in the red. I hope we are closer to "sometime" (and can't understand why it wasn't a 10 days ago), but I fear even something like two infield singles pushes it back another 3 weeks.
So I'm about to quit humming. I'm switching to 1960's-type protest chants. How about:
"Two, four, six, eight......give us Franklin, before it's too late!"
"Hey, hey LBJ.....how many SS's did you call up today!"
"What do we want? Franklin! When do we want it? Now!
One, two, three, four.....we don't need Andino no more!"
Take your pick. It can't hurt.
moe
What are we fighting for? Don't give a damn, next up is Brendan Ry-an. And it's five, six, seven, open up Tacoma's gates, ain't no time to wonder why, Ryan's gonna make me cry.
Rick - memories coming back from anti -VN War days. What a trip!
Edgar Martinez at age 26 batted .240/.314/.304 with 17 BBs and 26 Ks, he had 2 Homers in 196 PA.
Justin Smoak is batting .244/.363/.317 with 22 BBs and 31 Ks in 146 PA.
The next year, age 27, Edgar batted .302/.397/.433 with a few more walks than strike outs, which looks awful similar to Smoak's .274/.408/.403 over the past month. People often ask why Edgar didn't get an opportunity sooner in his career and complain that the Hall of Fame doesn't respect his offensive prowess, those same people complain endlessly that Justin Smoak doesn't deserve the opportunity he is getting.
Didn't agree with all aspects of their message (I was probably closer in sentiment to Staff Sgt. Barry Sadler), but the music of the time remains special.
And I can come up with something: Put silver wings...on Franklin's chest...da da da da da
-Rickthefish - like it!
Tickets went on sale today - Oct. 19 at the Paramount!! I think it's livenation.com - use codename "dandelions". Not sure how long they'll last. I got my tix! Jethro Tull - I saw them at the Paramount about 5 years ago.
Edgar's career AAA numbers were .344-.450-.495 over 1159 PA's. In '85 he went .353-.450-.485 in his 20 game AAA stint at the end of the year. Then the next year he was BACK DOWN in AA. Explain that!
This is why his late opportunity is weird. He killed AAA in '87 and then hit .372 in 46 Seattle PA's. Seattle won all of 78 games that year but back down he went (Seattle had Alvin Davis at 1B and Ken Phelps at DH) He killed AAA more in '88, but only hit .281-.351-.406 in his Sept. call up, so down he went. Seattle won 68 games that year, but still had Phelps and Davis. They had moved Phelps at mid-year, but then they gave the DH to Bye Bye Balboni!!!!! Edgar had to crush AAA for 32 more games in '89 to get his chance.
He should have been the man to begin '88. He had shown his stuff. Phelps should have been swapped out then.
Edgar had an extensive AAA pedigree. Not so Smoak. If he keeps this up against RHP, you'll get no whining from me. But the pattern for him has always been a hot month then a long collapse. This last hot month has given him, in the Wedge world, a long grace-period if and when he collapses. I will complain about that. I'm not yet sure this is the real Smoak. If he reverts back to the guy who was here the first 20 games, then we should be alarmed. But this guy? He's fine.
My only Country Joe McDonald album (it was vinyl even) was "Paradise with an Ocean View." I bought it in '76, I think. The biggest protest song on that album was "Save the Whales." I think I actually still have it.
Regardless of its politics, the "I Feel Like I'm Fixin' to Die Rag" was one of the catchiest songs of the decade, a decade of catchy songs. I was 10 when it was released. I'm pretty sure I don't remember hearing it until I was 17 or 18. When I was in college I was a Parrot Head, a Jimmy Buffet guy. I've seen him ten times or so. Oh, I loved my Jerry Jeff Walker, too. Yes I did! Strange combo, huh? Saw them both together in Eugene in '76, I think. Still listen to those guys.
Throw in some Boss now, as well. Tull. I liked Jethro Tull back in the day.
DaddyO, I wore out my "Ballad of the Green Beret" 45 as a kid, however. Played it on my folk's huge stereo in the living room. Cadillac size, with the changer. Remember those? Sadler rocked. I may still have that one around.
For some M's good luck, I could throw you some Jerry Jeff "L.A. Freeway" or "Desperados Waitin' for a Train," but since the M's need to keep driving in runs, I'll give you the driving rhythms of "Hill Country Rain," a classic. Always puts me in a great mood.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DuIIOpjJY1E&safe=active
Smiling now,
moe
Kumbaya Rick,
That's the spirit! Wish I had thought of that one. Spot on!
Country Joe would be dang proud!
If I'm moethedog, does that make you rickthefish?
If you don't get any pleasure out of watching the Mariners beat the Yankees in a dramatic game, what's the point of paying attention to the team? Also, I don't know how we're supposed to define what "real" is, but who won and who lost is how teams are ultimately judged.
Saw the Moody Blues about 20 years ago. Way way good stuff. Man, you forget how much of their stuff was terrific. Saw Tull in college, then sat in a little bar in London in '84 (my one and only trip) and listened to the Tull keyboardist play their hits. Just looked it up, his name was David Palmer. Didn't rmember that, but he was producing, at the time, an London Symphony Orchestra album of Tull's hits. He knew a gal I was with and he and I talked about that new album. He remembered Eugene and was going to send me a copy of it. Never happened. As it turns out David Palmer is now a she, Dee Palmer. Go figure.
Look what I found!
Orchestral "Thick as a Brick:" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOys97pexq4&safe=active
I must be old!
I saw Elvis in Eugene in '76, too. Bought tickets for my younger brother and I. Amazingly, Elvis was still superb!
The King has left the building. Not Felix, the other one.
moe
I'm getting pretty fed up with the, "Don't worry, the narrative hasn't changed, don't get your hopes up, these guys are clearly still a fourth place team."
They don't have to admit they were wrong, I know that's hard, but maybe trying to look for the bright spots in a win wouldn't be so bad?
My take on Ackley as a Tar Heel was this:
He LEARNED with each pitch he watched go by. Whether it was concious or subconcious, my impression of Ackley was always that the more he got to watch a given pitcher's release, the greater the damage he tended to do once he had "solved" said pitcher.
Ackley is still taking a lot of pitches, (but not as many as he did when he first came up). But, he's actually hitting MORE out of zone pitches.
My guess is that the club requested swing adjustments resulted in him making (very poor) contact on out of zone pitches he would have previously missed. So, instead of swinging and missing strike one or strike two, instead he grounds out weakly.
Discussion suggests he has dumped the "new swing", so that problem should abate. But, I think the "passivity" in taking fastballs was actually working in TANDEM with the extreme wrap-around. He HAD to watch a lot of pitches in order to lock in the timing so when he launched the wrap-around swing it was "on time".
My fear is that Ackley is hearing the same thing from Seattle coaches that people are saying on this board. The consensus seems to be for more aggression. Me? I think what MADE Ackley the college hitter of the decade was the patience to understand a pitcher BEFORE attacking him.
My belief? MLB pitchers are better than college pitchers. This means he needs to see MORE pitches for him to be successful ... not fewer.
Ackley "should" be walking about as much as Smoak. The fact he isn't suggests to me that he IS getting a steady string of complaints about being too passive, which is creating the weak swing groundouts driving his production down.
In college, Ackley's game was about TIMING the ball. I think the swing changes screw with his timing. I think all of the aggression advice is screwing with his timing. My prescription for Ackley is LET him watch pitches and swing through some and take some 3rd strike calls to give him a chance to find his timing again. Dialed in, Ackley hits EVERYTHING square.
I think given the leash to look at pitches, he will "naturally" adapt to the MLB pitching patterns and start intuiting the micro tipping that will allow him to get his timing back.
If I were to lay out a "plan" for Ackley to succeed, it would start with his Pitches/PA to go UP for awhile ... then once he gets comfortable, THEN it will start dropping, as his skills at reading pitcher timing are honed and he starts dialing in to a given pitcher more quickly.