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Q. What is the BEST thing that could happen?
A. Two best case scenarios that could happen. As y'know, we live to serve. First one, Bat571 offered the following:
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I hope Dan Wilson is there as the 7th coach for LeBlanc's start. He seems to be there for home games. He caught Moyer from the very first of Moyer's time in Seattle almost to the very last and could very well help Wade to make the same kind of adjustments that Jamie made at the same career point. I think Dan is a good argument for the influence a catcher CAN have with the right kind of staff. Hope he's there and in the works with Stottlemyre and Ianetta in helping LeBlanc get a W.
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You certainly can't rule out the idea of any pitcher, especially a journeyman lefty, suddenly getting a draught of the Michael Jordan Magic Water. This year's specimen is Rich Hill.
Personally I don't fancy LeBlanc's potential to evolve in quite that way, but that's just my $0.02. Not to take away from the suggestion.
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Q. And the best-case scenario that Dr. D favors?
A. Every athlete has a range of performance ... he can perform at -20%, normal, +20%. For instance, an NFL quarterback with a "true" passer rating of 100.0 can easily perform at 80 or 120 in a single game ...actually the range is broader than that. An 1800-rated chessplayer can easily play a tournament at 1600 or 2000. Name me a sport where this doesn't happen?
LeBlanc has thrown 446 big league innings with an ERA, a FIP, and an xFIP all right at 4.50, give or take ten points. I take it as a given that he, or any such pitcher, can perform at a "true" 3.50 or 5.50 for a month or two. Not luck into a 3.50, but deserve a 3.50. That's without finding a new pitch or release point or anything.
So, LeBlanc was 7-2, 1.71 in AAA. LeBlanc pitched for DiPoto quite awhile, and we can hope that DiPoto spotted LeBlanc pitching at the top of his range at AAA.
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Q. Why would the Jays powerflush such a pitcher?
A. LeBlanc is justifiably round-filed as a dime-a-dozen lefty. The Jays evidently didn't need or want a stopgap, 6-start fillin pitcher. Hey, dudes, if you want this scrub to soak up 40 innings for you, no prob. We'll take this grade C prospect we think has a little upside.
So that's the worst case scenario - that he's a #6 starter with no upside who's worth $50,000 or a useless PTBNL. Oh wait. Isn't that the actual scenario? We Mariners fans have been equating those two scenarios on various fronts lately.
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Q. What kind of pitcher is he?
A. Legitimately mixes four pitches, like Miley. Wade LeBlanc's fastball is MINUS, 88 miles an hour, and he throws it only 40%, 45% of the time. Has to pretty much nibble with it, or throw offspeed to set up the fastball, or however you want to put it.
The good news is, he's got a pretty cool 77 MPH changeup, with a lifetime run value of +0.29 despite very heavy usage. He's got a cool David Wells bloop curve, too, 75 MPH. Which, for me, makes for an interesting junkballer here. LeBlanc may not be John Halama redux, but he's my kinda Scrub.
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Q. Lets. Go To. the Video. Tape.
A. Here is a 5.1 IP, 0 R, but only 1 K outing against the A's:
- Pitch 1 = bloop curve ticks the low-away corner, super off balance swing, worthless rolling grounder (leadoff hitter!)
- Pitch 2 = cut fastball gets far enough inside for a skyball (to end first inning)
- Pitch 3 = Peachy 89 knee-pounder freezes LH batter (only K of game)
- Pitch 4 = 79 MPH curve breaks down to knees, so gets another skyball
At this point, you might compare the slow arm action on pitch 1 and 4 compared to the gusto with which he telegraphs pitch 3. Seems like an obvious problem to me, but what do I know. :- ) Possibly this was part of what DiPoto saw when he went and got LeBlanc, that he was disguising his curve better. :: shrug ::
- Pitch 5 = 76 curve and on this one, he "sold" it as a fastball
- Pitch 6 = David Wells curve up, telegraphed (?), still too much for the hitter
- Pitch 7 = Again the big head jerk into a fastball, which is up in the zone, but LeBlanc's angle is tough. Still, batter gets perfect bunt down
LeBlanc can strike guys out; in this game he was inducing the A's into hitting pitcher's pitches.
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Here's one more video from 2014.
- LH-on-LH curve
- High FB out-and-over
- Slow curve with laughable arm action - doesn't matter
- Another curve
... considering Fangraphs has him as throwing 25% changeups and only 15% curves, these batted-ball outs sure represent the curves a lot.
- Paintball 88 MPH
- High change curve, hitter takes until Tuesday and then realizes he better pull the trigger
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Q. Leaving us where?
A. If LeBlanc hasn't made any progress at all, it says here he's still a pretty cool spot starter - would far rather watch LeBlanc than (say) Vidal Nuno.
There are several ways in which LeBlanc could up his game, so let's be alert to those too :- )
Enjoy,
Dr D
