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Q. Is there something about Nate Karns' pitching that inherently limits him to 90 pitches and 5 innings?
A. Scott Servais is of the opinion that around pitch 80, Karns starts dropping his center of gravity -- and his release point -- in order to maintain velocity. So Servais himself is on the record that at the moment, 90 pitches is a good number for Karns.
It's not clear to me why a drop-and-drive delivery is a bad thing, but it's nice to know that Servais is on the cutting edge of analyzing his players.
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Q. What do the stats say?
A. Whatever the stats say, our minds' eyes have imprinted his last 4 starts in a row, all of them 4-5 innings, all of them Mariner losses. So probably a thousand words on the subject aren't going to override the picture.
But before those 4 starts, KKKarns had just gone 7 good starts in a row, 4-0 record, 2.76 ERA, in which the Mariners won 6 and lost 1 - and he averaged over 6 IP in these seven consecutive starts. In part he did well because his BABIP allowed was a normal .291. The BABIP against him in the four starts since has been .400+, lots of two-strike pitches tipped back, etc.
In 2015, Karns averaged 5.65 innings per start, compared to (say) Taijuan's 5.83 last year, Vidal Nuno's lifetime 5.45, etc.
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This was a notorious feud between Earl Weaver and Jim Palmer. One time a sportswriter showed Palmer that his ERA was 2.95 through the sixth inning and 4.25 after that, or something. "Show that to Earl," Palmer begged -- Palmer was the one wanting to be yanked. But Earl was very clear about it: Sure, Palmer isn't as good when he's tired. But he had enough left that he was better than the relievers Earl had.
Nothing new to our generation about this idea.
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Q. Is there any reason that Nate Karns shouldn't be able to throw 100 pitches? Is he Edwin Diaz? . ...
A. Karns' splits, lifetime, are worse for pitches 1-25 and 76-100 than they are for pitches 26-75.
He's given up a .300 AVG and .500 SLG at the start and finish of games, vs. .200 AVG and .330 SLG in the middle innings. LINK If we want to lobby the M's to make a closer out of him, we might want to be aware that he has started innings 1-2 with as many problems as he's had in the 6th and 7th.
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Karns is 6' 3", 225 lbs. and throws hard. His surgeries don't seem different from other starters'. Perhaps 25 curve balls (innings 1-4) tire his arm out more than if he threw 15 of them? Sigh.
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Bear in mind this is sort of an eternal "accusation" that baseball men put on any pitcher who hasn't yet proven he can make "major league style" starts, 7 IP, save your stuff for the late innings, etc. It was attached to Hisashi Iwakuma with a vengeance. Iwakuma only quieted the doubters after he threw 7, 8 innings many times. Until he actually did that, you weren't going to be able to debate it with scouts.
Karns has pitched into the 7th and 8th innings 5 times in 14 starts this year, 11 times in 27 starts last year. But granted, the Rays also had a fondness for pulling Karns after about 90 pitches, sometimes 85.
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Q. Is he showing ANY signs of hope?
A. Karns has twisted in the five-and-dive wind to the tune of --- > 9.69 whiffs per 9 innings, sixth in the American League, and the top 15 on this K/IP list are all TOR's. You have to get down to Taijuan at #18 and Kennedy at #20 before you run out of Hamelses and Prices and Klubers. It's not like we're trying to decide whether Mike Montgomery should start or relieve ...
Dr. D ain't budging on Nate Karns, not an inch. :- ) But feel free to fill the Shout Box with counters if you're so inclined. It's been a trying month all around, gents.
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Q. Leaving us where?
A. Dr. D's (current) view of the situation is that Karns just pitches too carefully. Some denizens call it wussiness; I think he's trying to be too clever, especially ahead in the count.
We're not talking about a guy whose velocity and stuff are fading, as though his elbow were going out. We're talking about a maddening series of foul tips, of 1-2 fastballs two feet off the plate, of grounders going through and slop like that. Karns has absolutely personified the Mariners' frustrating June. The results should be there, but simply aren't. Him and a lot of other Mariners!
If it's me, I work with him on it, try to get him to throw 14-15 pitches per inning rather than 17-18. But if he goes 5 IP 1 ER 4 BB 7 K and we beat the Yankees, like on April 15, I'm not going to make a big thing over it. Apparently, that has also been Servais' orientation; the Mariners have kept Karns in the rotation despite their 90-pitch attitude about him.
Your mileage may vary,
Dr D
I'll mention again that when you change fonts - like in the discussion of K/9 or highlighting Montgomery, that on my computer it puts it into an agate-size font that is nigh-impossible to read without zooming in. Please can you change how you do this?
I didn't change fonts or anything. Haven't been able to spot any patterns in the reason we get the Constitution-On-A-Postage-Stamp font shows up, though it sometimes seems to happen after cut and paste. Annoying for sure.
Since it wasn't a font change on my part, any other suggestions as to what's causing it?
If you aren't explicity changing fonts, it is happening when you use colored fonts or use emphasis other than simple bolding. If you're on an Apple, I suspect it's just the way it formats compared to Win/Linux/Android. But you might check with the Klat guys and see if they can look at your stuff on a Win7 or Win10 or android tablet and see if they can figure out what's happening.
I read and understand your points, Doc, but I see Karns as being very similar to Montgomery; in particular, a guy who throws hard enough he finds it hard to be economical, unlike Kuma, who can throw 40 pitches in 2 innings and then switch modes and pitch seven innings.
With Karns, he also seems to start out intentionally "soft" as if he wants to conserve for later innings, rather than coming out storming through for as long as he can. I believe if he had no need to try to get to 90 pitches, he'd be better on pitch 0-30.
We're not going to have any effect on what happens, but I just hope the Ms are able to put the best 5 guys in the rotation, and finds 7 guys who are comfortable and effective in the pen. And if I can hope for a 1996-type miracle, that Wade LeBlanc pitches tonight like a left-handed 'Kuma and spreads a little bit more of the NPB/aiki mojo, well, that's my hope. Then the contrast of Paxton and Walker with LeBlanc and 'Kuma with the incomparable Felix at the top makes a rotation that could take the Ms someplace.
Alternatively, If Miley has gotten over his issues and can get back on top, that would be OK, too. But either case leaves little room for Karns, unless the BP is possible. And if Walker's flat feet continue to give him problems, having both Montgomery and Karns in the pen able to throw HARD for 2-3 innings wouldn't be a bad thing.
Who knows - maybe he'd be 97 with the wipeout 12-6 curve and what kind of reliever would THAT be?
Quite reasonable IMHO to be dubious about Karns' endurance, though my own approach would be to simply work it.
As to Karn's changing his motion after ~pitch 80 - well, Brooks charts seem to show that when he does, his stuff flattens, and with the lower release point, makes him more hittable. Better, in my mind, to try for the higher release point and higher velocity and spin on the ball in shorter stints. That's my take; others may vary.
That's what I heard Servais talk about - how Karns gets tired after 80 pitches and his stuff 'flattens out'.
Mystified why drop-and-drive would cause his curve to flatten or his fastball to move differently. But this was a Q you noted earlier Grizz, that when Karns has issues it seems to be along the lines of straight fastballs.
Wasn't that Tom Seaver, from the 1st inning through the 9th?
There was a day, Doc (you will remember), when drop and deliver was the standard......as it delivered the big thigh and arse muscles into the pitch.
Right. Have heard a lot of baseball people, such as Pedro Martinez :- ) and earlier Jeff Sullivan, opine that drop-and-drive was actually the preferred, if not correct!, way to pitch.
Incongruity going on with Karns here. But that's half the fun, watching the kids figure things out. Staying attached to James Paxton has salted the steak in 2016, hain't it? :- )