THE NEXT BAT
Three ways to go:
1) the replacement right fielder for Saunders
2) the right hand platoon for Saunders
3) the right hand platoon for Morrison
Because the projections seem to match my eternal affection for Saunders, I hope option #1 does NOT happen. That means no Kemp, no Upton, no Cespedes. That is entirely fine with me.
Taking options 2 and 3 together, ideally there is no long term contract that blocks DJ, Kivlehan, Montero, Blash, Lara or whomever.
So possibilities:
-- Hunter for one year: the appeal is the best chance for him to reach a World Series from among his suitors
-- Delmon Young: strong split advantage, not much power, but ESPN projects him as accepting a one year deal
-- Van Slyke: just because we're not talking to LA about Kemp doesn't mean we have to shut down talks. Friedman has always been smart, but now he's also flush. He doesn't have needs he can't fill with money. But his outfield's overloaded, and he does need a shortstop, at least temporarily. And his bullpen's a mess. So would Taylor plus Farquhar do it?
-- Gaby Sanchez: he's been mentioned in the Shoutbox and elsewhere, but being freely available makes too much sense to be true. Mashes lefties, and even full time insurance in case LoMo gets hurt.
THE DIVISION
People are being WAY to easy on Oakland. You can call it a 'rebuild' or not, but they are a mess. Kazmir and Samardzja are both gone next year, so there's no reason for him to hold on this year. They are the best bait out there for Upton and Gattis. Beane holds on to Gattis...flips Upton before the break to replenish the farm...and that's probably smart. But I think 'not rebuilding' = building for 2016 and on.
The Angels are a well balanced offense, but still derive a huge amount of their value from Trout. He falters moderately? Sprains an oblique and is out for a month? That's crippling--the corollary to us losing Felix. But that's not the present danger. Their rotation is iffy from top to bottom. They will need the equivalent of two Chris Young acquisitions/resurrections to be favorites.
In Texas, any hope to be competitive rests on Fielder's neck and Darvish's arm. To think that both are givens is optimistic, to say the least. And their rotation behind Darvish? Major league ugly.
PITCHING DEPTH
Now our most pressing need (to me), but this will take care of itself. No need to spend big money now.
We will make two or three other moves, I think. None of them will cost Paxton or Walker. One might get us Niese. One should get us one of the hitters above.
The narrative said that Jack was 'desperate' to get his big bat. He's not desperate anymore. The market can now come to him. And if he's proven anything, it's his willingness to wait.
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Discussion thread, in case you don't want to use the Shout Box for your essays.
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SABR Matt:
This is actually great news, IMHO. Cruz is probably not going to still be effective i year for, but at 58 million, year 4 is free. You're getting two years at 22 mil or so, a third year at 14 mil, and a fourth year for free.
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Which is actually the way that GM's think. (That's not based on telepathy. This time.) It's based on what front office people say.
Dr. D would bitterly resent the attempt to reduce baseball to a cost-efficiency game, even if this were the NFL where nobody can voluntarily decide to increase their payroll by $14.5M per year if they want to. But for those who do, I got yer SABRMatt Snuff right here, pal.
It's awesome, though. We imagine ourselves free of USSM bondage and it turns out we've been in the Matrix from the word Go.
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SABR Matt:
OK Doc - lessee your write up of this. :)
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How about on double rail guns? Does that "jump off the page" at you? :: jim burgess ::
Nahhhh ... not much substance to the shtick today. We just need a more capacitous comments vase.
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MtGrizzly:
I love the speculation that the Seager contract basically priced the A's out of Donaldson.
SABR Matt:
So...right now, Oakland's line-up is somethjing like CF) Crisp 3B) Lawrie RF) Reddick DH) Butler C) Norris-Jaso LF) Moss 1B) Davis-Vogt 2B) Sogard SS) Punto...right?
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Mess with Seattle there, Bay Area, and we will END you. Nice week for North vs South in the PC Bowl.
And that's a lot of chips into the pot onto Billy Butler's .379 SLG, neh? You do realize that Butler had a -0.3 WAR last year. Apparently Oakland is out of replacement level breakfasts.
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Gordon Gross:
The Ms seem to always get the wrong years on free agents - a year early or a year late on hitters not named Cano. If Cruz can hit for a couple years, it'll be all right. THIS is the window we need maximized. We just lost out on the playoffs for not signing Cruz this past year, and maybe on much more. I'd definitely try to keep both Kivlehan and DJ now, though - at least one should be needed to offset Cruz's aging shortly.
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Supposing that Nelson Cruz DID do the Richie Sexson dance for us. Two big years, then a huge, blossomy mushroom cloud. So on the plus side, the Mariners take over baseball. On the downside, we pay two years of Carl Crawford Tax.
Some guys reject that out of hand. What's owning baseball, compared to winning a trade. It's the way these guys think.
By the way: you can't stop Gordon's love for Patrick Kivelhan. You can only hope to contain it. If DJ or Kivlehan, or anybody, wins an ROY, there is your $30 mill right back into the till. :: sniff ::
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moethedog:
It's a big overpay. Too big, I fear. Matt's "Year 4 is free" is true if he produces for three years. From '11-'13 he was a 1.9, 2.2 and 2.4 oWAR guy (and I'm not including his negative glove). Moving forward that level of production is about what to expect. I wouldn't be surprised if we get something like his '12 season out of hem next year. 24 homers and 45 doubles is nice (in Texas) but I'm not sure it's 22 Million nice. What he does have going for him is the indication that much DH'ing helps keep him healthy. He DH'ed 80 times last year...the most he had ever done prior was 8...and he achieved a career high in games and PA's. I wouldn't have done this deal a year ago and I don't like it now. But our goose is cooked in some manner, trades have come and gone and FA's inked and the market is slimmer. C'est la vie....I suppose. I hate huge overpays. I'll trust he mashes lefties. If not...oh oh....
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Anything you do can get you killed, up to and especially doing NOTHING. Dr. D should know. His son is a video game junkie.
C'mon Keith. You gotta either hit the pitch shot half-swing and firm, or full and easy. Yesterday, we had the Musical Chairs Dunce Cap all wrapped up. Now we got 100 RBI and a rumor he will be hitting #6, not #4.
;- )
No, of course there's an argument to be made against signing Cruz. Especially the one that says a Mariner youngster must break through.
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SABR Matt:
moe - 2014 may be an outlier high, but his component stats are actually improving, not getting worse...his age suggests he'll get less consistent eventually, but DH'ig probably delays that some. If he's our DH, he's a 2.5-3 win player in 2015 and 2016...that's worth about 32-40 million on the open market. For just those two years. Years 3 and 4 he would just need to produce 2-3 WAR TOTAL to be worth the money.
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And: 2014 was an "outlier" only in the sense that he exactly reproduced his lifetime slash line. It's an "outlier" like Fangraphs panning the $$ here will be an outlier.
Granted, Cruz moved out of Texas and proved not to be a product of the ballpark, so the OPS+ looks high. But the Texas Bandbox Theory was always horse hockey. This guy's PX is 160.
It was an "outlier" in the sense that he played 159 games. His moving to DH could have been related. Edgar's moving off 3B might also have been related.
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No, no, we realize. There's a downside for Cruz, the Richie Sexson Scenario. It's all about whether you will stop playing for "Year + 4" for once in your blinkin' life. When you throw yourself into today, things tend to germinate. An energetic effort breeds future vitality.
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mojician:
Ichiro style: "If that is true (Cruz signing) it would give me great joy. But I don't believe it."
benihana:
How is this any more of an overpay than V-Mart at 4/68? Cruz has more positional value since he actually can play a passable RF is 2 years younger and is projected to hit for more power. I believe WAR over-values OBP, particularly for clean-up hitters. Either way, big time improvement for a position in dire need of one.Even if he's only worth 2 WAR next year that is a 4 win upgrade over the DH position from last season.
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It's a funny thing: Benihana and Dr. D used to be a mortal lock to disagree on everything. We are currently on a 432-post agreement streak. Mojician's objectivity, of course, is a given, like that of the judges who control his destiny.
Only thing we'd add: You know how there are some things that WAR doesn't measure? Right. By "some things" you mean "Precisely Nelson Cruz. Especially for a team whose achilles' heel was Not Having Nelson Cruz."
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MtGrizzly:
@jaysonst: What's next for #Mariners? It won't be trading Iwakuma. Asked one exec how available he was. Answer: "Not. They're adding, not subtracting."
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Dr. D read that terse line, and succumbed for a moment.
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Counting his RBI's already,
Dr D
Comments
Here's the bet Z made: I can beat all those AL West-types in '15, kicking tail and taking names! Sensing some AL West weakness he splash-landed and sprayed water over some of those Billy Beanes out there.
Signing Cruz says, more than inking Cano in fact, that we're winning now baby. The clock is ticking/the window is closing/more cliches after that.
BTW: He's moving from the (Hardball Times) 2nd easiest ballpark to hit it out in LCF to the 3rd toughest. The Yard is almost exactly league average in terms of hitting homers to LF, Safeco is the 2nd toughest.
28 of his 40 homers came to those two places. But I will give him this, he actually hit considerably more on the road (25) than he did in his cozy home confines (15). But counting on another 40 isn't a very good bet. not that any of you guys are.....
If we can get 27 homers and 30 doubles, be very tickled. Two years of that and it's a decent purchase. Three years and Cruz was cheap.
Or if he leads us to the ALCS in Year One, then he's cheap already.
He wouldn't be my first choice to dance with at the prom, but he's cute enough.
Makes too much sense to be true! Sigh...
Cruz DH'd, and on top of that we traded for Kemp to play RF? Unlikely, but...
1. A.Jackson, CF
2. D.Ackley, LF,
3. R.Cano, 2B
4. N.Cruz, DH
5. K.Seager, 3B
6. M.Kemp, RF
7. L.Morrison, 1B
8. B.MIller, Ss
9. M.Zunino, C
Of course, I'd bat Kemp 4th and Cruz 6th because of OBP unless Kemp proved he wasn't as consistent as Cruz with the big RBI. Either way'll do. That's has the potential to be a VERY formidable lineup. You figure one of our SS's goes in the LA trade, if it's Miller you play Taylor and bat him 9th.
It's nice to know we made at least one major move before the Winter Meetings.
when I suggested almost this exact contract a few weeks ago. I think I said it would end up at 4/60, with an outside possibility at 3/45 with a vesting option for the fourth year. The similarity between him and V-Mart is just too much to pass up in terms of their recent performances, relative values to a team (read: bat first) and other factors.
Like it or not, this is the guy this team needed. Kemp would have been a better version, as would have been Upton, but all we surrender for Cruz is the 1st round pick (which isn't nothing, but we can work a little harder on the international prospect scene next year) and a modest chance at a problematic contract in year four (I'm with the mainframe; he'll almost certainly earn his years 1-3 money in fiscal years 1+2). Securing Kemp or Upton would have cost a lot more than a lower-half-of-the-first-round pick that would be 2-4 years away from contributing.
I don't love the move, but I do like it. Now we need to get Gattis, or Craig, Van Slyke, Sanchez, or someone like them to help shore up the rest of the 1B/COF rotation from the right side of the plate. It would really be a positive offseason if we do that. Not the upper deck shot it could have been, but a solid double into the opposite field gap.
and put the pressure on the other team from the get-go. Probably, since Cano reportedly complained about batting 2nd during his last year in NY, I'd go Ackley-Seager-Kemp-Cano-Cruz for the 1-5. That would kill pretty much anything that moved, with Ackley being easily swappable with Jackson if he gets his act together. But if Cano was agreeable, I'd bat him 2 and Seager 4.
They can still make a big push at the meetings. Either one of Upton or Kemp would seriously solidify this offense.
Those homer/park numbers date from 7 years ago. I did not catch that. With apologies...