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Solly Chollie, didn't getta see much of the game. Gotta get a game stub up, with the day off.
According to some wacky-and-wunnerful site called "Brooksbaseball.net," Young whuffed the Astros 16 times in 99 pitches. This is in market contradistinction to his 2014 average of 6.1 whuffs per 100 pitches and his lifelong bad habit of 9.2 per 100.
According to the same site, Young's slider count was also way, way up -- 41 sliders and curves amongst 99 pitches, compared to the usual 20-22 that are usually thrown outside the zone in "show me" fashion. According to GameDay, there was nothing "show me" about his sliders -- he threw them for called strikes, both up and down in the zone, right down the heart.
The result was that Young fanned 8 men, walking only 1, and generally sported a Hisashi Iwakuma box score.
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Here is a 2009 Baseball Prospectus article that says you can cheerfully add a full +6 to +7 MPH to the radar gun when Young throws. Y'dont like it, take it up with them. But that puts him around 93-94 MPH with Catfish Hunter control and a seriously vicious arm angle, releasing the ball from closer to the center of the rubber than you've ever seen.
Here is an article, from a month ago, when Young out-saber'ed a sabermetrician who was trying to teach him how to pitch. It is one whale of a fun read.
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On the postgame, Bill Krueger (who Dr. D considers a VERY fine pitching analyst) was insistent: Chris Young is 100.00% back to his All-Star days, pre-2009. Undoubtedly the new slider was causing part of the reaction.
Young is now 8-4, 3.11, and absolutely THE poster boy for "exceptions to FIP." For those who just joined us, "Fielding Independent Pitching" tells you what an ERA "should have been" if the fielding, the park, and the "batted average on balls in play" had been average. "Expected" FIP, or xFIP, tells you what an ERA for all that would be if you also "normalized" the fly balls to yield an "average" amount of home runs.
It is true the FIP and xFIP predict ERA better than ERA predicts itself -- for any large group of pitchers. Then again, BABIP predicts AVG better than AVG predicts itself -- except for Ichiro, and a few others. That is the mark of a flexible mind, the willingness to look for exceptions to the rules. The run-of-the-mill sabermetrician has not, in the past, been noted for his flexible mind. Chris Young, however, has. He is a pleasure to watch pitch.
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Edit to add: just saw the 2nd inning. Young was throwing the slider as if it were a Josh Beckett curve. Working with TOR tempo and rhythm, just cutting through them like wheat.
Who is this guy?
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Like Jeremy Bonderman has a lifetime ERA of +1 run over expectancy, Chris Young has a lifetime ERA of -1 run under expectancy. That, AND he is a great fit for the park, and for this team, AND he's got upside. Apparently. At this point my question is, do you give him a 2-year deal to pitch in Safeco. Don't rule it out: Jack's got to be awfully proud of him.
I know I'm slow to come around here, but:
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James Paxton is now on track for imminent return. If it's Dr. D's team, the man who goes to the bullpen as #6 starter is Roenis Elias. Not Chris Young. It would do Elias some good. No use having Elias throw 200 innings as a rookie, and the extra LH arm would be useful there.
BABVA,
Dr D
What I like best about this is that Z looked at Wolf and someone else (forgot who already) as the veteran arm to be the glue all through ST, and then after that decisively pointed to Young in Carroll/Schneider fashion and said "I want that guy".
Z should be proud of this one too, I would think.
When he retires, make him a pitching coach. I don't go to fangraphs but a couple of times per year because of the dogma at USSM (extended into that site). But that was a great read.
BTW on a general note, Fangraphs' info is good stuff - I just don't read the "analysis" and conclusions. The best balance in analysis is found right here.
I agree and I agree.
I would give Young a two year deal, at the right rate, mind you. I would also put Elias in the pen when Paxton is up. I might pick and choose a few starts for him as we go on, however.
Smoke and mirrors? Magic dust? Faustian bargain? Who knows. But Young is a quite nice pitcher right now. Give him the ball.
plus they may want to limit his innings some even if he was a pro in Cuba.This would make our primary trade deadline need the proverbial right-handed bat. If Ackley's last two games are an indicator of him finding his stroke, in addition to him now being an above average outfielder and Morrison also looking like a big leaguer again, with Hart ready to return the bat need has decreased significantly.
I'd put Roenis in the pen when Paxton comes up, but have him start on the road at Texas and Chicago and other high HR/FB parks where Young is a bit more vulnerable and Elias' GB stuff really plays well.
Young presently has an xFIP of 5.37 - his career xFIP is 4.81. Means he has, thus far, been about half a run worse than average for his career (in which he posted a 3.72 actual ERA). So, your baseline under equivalent conditions would be a 4.30 ERA. But Safeco Field is worse for hitters than Petco Park. By like 4%. And Young has upside still - his xFIP by month has gone 5.98, 5.44, 4.69 - seems to be rediscovering his career form. When he was at his peak, his xFIP was 4.44.
With that as my guide, I think I would project Young to throw the next two seasons with an ERA of around or just below 4 in Safeco. What is that worth to a team that has two injury-prone young pitchers, Felix Hernandez, injury prone Iwakuma getting old, a #3 starter with upside (Elias) and then crickets after that for at least three years?
I would be willig to give Young a 2 year 16 million dollar contract. Think he'd take that?
You touched on the part I left out: Young ahead of Elias this year (with a logical leash, however), but next year Young is your insurance policy. With three young arms and the expected missed starts for any staff Young is a great guy to keep around.
I don't think you want both kids in that play-off rotation...you want guys who won't soil their pants because it si their first high-pressure game ever...we can gamble on one of them (the kids)....but not both. In the play-offs, I think I would rather have Paxton...because his game is simpler and harder to screw up.
Also...it says here (as Doc would say) that Young was a horse the last time he was this healthy...so I don't worry about limiting his innings. Either his health issue is not truly fixed (and he'll break...and you've lost your #6 start...not the end of the world)...or it is fixed...and his smooth mechanics and low-impact pitching motion can throw 200 innings any time he wants them.
Elias should be protected by moving to the pen...the rotation post-Paxton should be Felix, Iwakuma, Paxton, Walker, Young. And in the play-offs, Walker moves to the pen.
Young has not pitched more than 140 innings in over 5 years.
Elias has NEVER pitched more than 150 innings ever....
Both are on inning rates of 200+ innings...
Do they both get shut down? Do we go to a 6 man rotation? Do you bring in a rental pitcher for August and September.... who will probably not pitch in the play-offs... 'cuz your starting play-off rotation is probably Felix Kuma Walker and Paxton..
I think we have to do something radical...
The comparison to Jamie Moyer is instructive. Yes, Young is RH and Jamie is LH and there's a considerable difference in height. But both are extremely intelligent and have found ways to FAR exceed their *expected* capabilities by SABR measures.
When Jamie was traded to the Ms, at age 33, he was in the midst of a season with a 4.50 ERA and a 5.02 FIP, yet he had won 7 and lost just 1 for Boston, in spite of a 1.533 WHIP. He'd walked 27 and struck out 50 in 111 IP. He'd had a good year in 1993 with Baltimore (ERA = 3.43, FIP = 3.61, WHIP = 1.263, 90 K, 38 BB, 152 IP), but in 1996 was considered a basic journeyman; a marginal replacement level pitcher. He was traded for an marginal outfielder who would accumulate 6.3 WAR in the rest of his career of parts of 11 seasons.
With the Ms, Jamie went 145-87 (.625), had an ERA = 3.97 and an FIP = 4.38 with a 1.254 WHIP. During that time he K'd 5.4 / 9 and walked 2.6 / 9. He accumulated 34.6 WAR in 11 seasons in Seattle.
No statistical measure predicted that Jamie Moyer, starting at age 33, would become the ace of a staff that would, in his age 38 season, set an all-time win record, while he went 20-6. But Jamie knew how to pitch; it just took some time for him to find out where he got hurt and where he could get outs without getting hurt.
It continues to baffle me why obviously bright people reject the idea of growth and getting better at an incredibly complex game, where fractions of an inch and milli-seconds make the difference between a Home Run and an infield pop-up. Maybe there is a truth to the *generality* that jocks are not all that smart. But Chris Young and Jamie Moyer certainly prove the exceptions - as, it seems, do Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, and James Jones - these are guys who think about and look for ways to improve and DO SO.
Chris Young may reach a limit where his ability to do what he wants to do with the baseball is no longer so sharp. Jamie finally reached that point at about age 45-46. But I see no PRESENT reason to think Chris Young can't be successful for some time to come. " A man's gotta know his limitations" says Harry Callahan to Briggs, who sees everything as fixed, that a certain point of view will always prevail. Talent doesn't always prevail; knowing how far your talent extends and staying within it seems to get far better results in baseball as in life.
Now, does this mean I think Chris Young should pitch in Arlington in the heat of the summer IF a decent alternative exists? Well, a manager needs to understand his players' limitations as well, and the statistics DO show that it may be a park that *might* be closest to CY's limits. But to say that his pitching skill will INEVITABLY regress to a career mean (where in many stretches he was injured and in pain) - without doubt - is, as Matt says, the thoughts of a fool.
Could it be that with all his missed time over the last several years, he could be now pitching with the arm of a 30 year old? The docs really messed up with the misdiagnosed "shoulder" problems that was in reality thoracic outlet syndrome. He could be worth more than a two year deal for a playoff rotation pitcher. If he wants more than two years, I'd consider it. Otherwise, I could see him return home to the Fathers of SD, but he probably prefers winning.
Chris has so much in common with Jamie. Smart, unorthodox, and he gets results. Jamie was a 20 game winner twice for the Mariners. Chris is already at 8 wins. While everyone is waiting for the regression, he keeps producing. His ERA is 11th best in the AL among starters. It's better than Sonny Gray's, Oakland's ace. And we're talking about our #5 starter. Ballpark? Oakland's pitcher advantage is razor close to Safeco's (96 vs. 94 according to B-ref). Yes, we can look at all the peripherals and point to Gray as the better pitcher. But when it comes to results, wins and losses, giving up runs, our #5 comes out ahead. It's like Jamie did, every fifth day. When Jamie pitched, you were a tad nervous - like Young. You knew his stuff could be hit, and hit hard. But all these two have done is win.
It's something I like about Lloyd. He knows the stats. But he also knows the game, and keeps it all in perspective. So I find myself trusting him. Young is like that. Jamie was like that.
... who also has, it seems, infinite "hit points" ... ?
cosign especially on the Lou-esque "THAT one" and the pitching coach thing. CY seems an awfully brainy pitcher type, and his manner (and physical elevation) would wear well with the kids.
Tough to keep him around to the very end of his career, which could be in seven years, but ... his medical recovery is our gain, I guess...
Ya, if you could swap in your #6 starter to match the lineups, wow. Wouldn't that be tech'y.
Or even the 3-3-3 format :- )
Our #2 starter took $6.5M. You're going to create dissension in the clubhouse :- )
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By the way you guys there are going to be a LOT of typos and "drunken grammar," having nothing to do with alcohol ... Grumpy gets it ... Bear wit' me if you please...
Hopefully CY/RE can be the world's first designated #6 SP's. And paid like it.
Back the 1970's, the Dodgers had a situation like this -- even worse -- but no options for the players. They just sat on their pitchers, nothing they could do. Elias is in that situation, but not Young.
We fancy that Young would go for (1) $3M x 2 and (2) a captain's jersey and (3) a promise of a job after his career is over. As it were.
Zduriencik's mindset right now is that both Taijuan and K-Pax have MUCH to prove before they get pencilled into any playoff rotation ... you better believe that Young is the 3rd SP in as things stand right now ...hence the trade market talks, which should be dwindling as to new SP's to Seattle...
One thing Dr. D regrets about America, is that so few civilians have come in contact with brainy Servicemembers. Most civilians have noooooo idea.
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When Moyer got on a role, we asked James, is there ANY precedent for this guy. His response, One precedent. Preacher Roe.
Wouldn't SHOCK me if Chris Young got healthy and had his best years starting now. Wouldn't bet on it, any more than we did Moyer, but ...
Throwing 87-88 MPH with 'elan and bouncing right back into the next pitch. This after having been pushed relatively hard so far in 2014.
It does, sometimes, happen. A pitcher's body just heals up. No guarantees, but last night's game was sweet like ice cream.
Cause...Young will be worth 1.5 to 2 of those. He's old and has a checkered history and teams are hesitant about guys without huge K rates, but I don't think you'll get him all that much cheaper than 8 mil per.
If the Ms give him a 2 / $6.5M contract, as they did another sore-shouldered pitchmeister from across the waves, and it worked out anywhere near the same, I'd think that bet an extremely good one. With 'Kuma AND Young, you're really playing with house money -- with Jamie Moyer's performance as the (outside) possibility of return - let's see, how much was 36.4 WAR of return worth in $$$ ?
I would bet on Young -- it's not a sure thing, by any means -- but a VERY decent bet. And especially considering his stated attitude towards his career - let the results speak - one that HELPS, not hurts, any clubhouse.
Young just keeps getting better. K/BB, opposition OPS:
Here, have a look: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=youngch03&year=20...
In his last start, Blowers mentioned that they are targeting 170 IP for Elias and he's at what - 105 now? Five or six more starts and the to the pen for the playoff push seems right. They will give Paxton the Walker treatment, so he'll get a handful of starts in Tacoma once he's game ready. The cards are lining up nicely.
he will make a simulated start next Tuesday or Wednesday and then go to AAA for rehab. Walker made four starts for AAA...3 IP, 4.2 IP, 5.2 IP and 9 IP, I believe. If Paxton has a similar progression, we have about five Elias starts left before we have Paxton to drop in there (because the ASB buys us an extra start). So Elias would be moved to the pen around the beginning of August with Paxton replacing him. Elias would stay in the pen for the post-season and Walker would probably be shut down and not even make the post-season roster (because our right handed relievers are better than Walker would be in one-inning stints and there are only 25 roster spots).
It's about time the M's had some luck break their way for a change, eh?
Apologies for butting into the thread, I am a long-time reader of Dr. D who recently rediscovered him here after a sometimes-frantic ongoing but obviously unsustained effort. (Didn't know your name; you sometimes participated in Geoff's blog and wrote "Stick It to Inflexible Religionists" posts for your blog, another site, the name of which I had forgotten.
Anyway, I've very much been enjoying all the awesome amount of content you guys produce; thanks for that. But I saw this next thing, per Dutton, and was driven for the first time to register with you so I could post it:
"General manager Jack Zduriencik is on the record as saying he expects to make a deal before the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline. At minimum, that suggests he’s been green-lighted to explore possibilities."
"But…seeing is believing. Multiple sources say Zduriencik had deals in place with Nelson Cruz and Kendrys Morales before ownership nixed them. Both players then signed elsewhere."
...so .... yeah... there's that.
Good to meet you.
Dutton's post suggests (reading between the lines) "specific" deals or deal types have been discussed upstairs.
I would be surprised if we're doing a Kemp-type "huge" deal: Much less surprised if we do a Willingham-type "rent-a-bat" deal.
And I still think an Allen Craig deal is quite possible. Taveras has started the last three days for the Cards. Craig hasn't homered since May 29th and seems to need a change of scenery and St. Louis badly needs a 2B named Franklin.
The old blog was "Detect-O-Vision." Glad you found us! You've probably seen Spectator's spin-off site "Mariner Brainstorm," heavy on the numbers and the minor-league analysis.
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For sure that is the M.O. of the M's ownership committee: we'll approve a contract if our own baseball instincts jibe with Zduriencik's. Been going on since Argyros and Smulyan. Actually all clubs since 1900's; the trend on that is down, as the Seahawks and Spurs have shown. Paul Allen doesn't sign off on Kevin Williams, and that provides Carroll and Schneider the ability to form a coherent vision.
Thanks for posting amigo!
Ha, I remember now! Yeah, can't help but run afoul of, I mean, run across, The Brainer, spending time here. Both of ya are fun, and I very much appreciate your work.
Re: Cruz and Morales, while I do understand all aspects and facets of the situation (and therefore really don't have much of an opinion--kneejerk reaction: Cruz no (away splits, not defense), Morales yes, and look how accurate that instinct has been so far--Cruz, last I checked, was outhitting his historical away numbers significantly, etc.), I can't help but think they would have balanced the offense.
I was a believer in signing 3 guys (bats--Cano+2), plus a starter and 2 relievers (Ollie Perez!), trading for a center fielder, and pushing some of the fast-track guys back down to AAA, esp. Smoak and Ackley.
It is appearing, bar health, that this wish list has been nearly magically fulfilled, despite my early disappointment. Chips-'re-a-fallin' nicely so far.
Law on Brock-a-Chalk, said, despite the evidence in front of us, that Lloyd is a terrible bullpen manager. Hmmm. Maybe he just had a bad bullpen? He seems to be doing very well now....
http://mynorthwest.com/422/2557244/Keith-Law-Mariners-should-be-willing-...
