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J.A. HAPP
A quality start, nominally. 6 IP, 3 ER. Remember when beat writers used to guffaw about a "4.50 ERA" being quality? I haven't heard that one in a while, have you? It's like a 13-game hitting streak. Some o' those games had .250 batting averages in 'em, but string together a quantity of such games and you're gonna be hokay.
A Shandler Quality Start 4/5, in the sense that he had good Stamina, good Domination (K within 1 of his IP), good Command (walks half of his K), and good Mistake Avoidance (no more than 1 HR, and it Happ-ens that homer was kinda bad luck).
At this point we have pretty well triangulated Happ: he's got a zinging little fastball that he commands very well, a lousy offspeed game, and strong mound presence. Which has compiled to ... what, exactly?
.........
1) He is keeping his BB rate very low (only 2.2!), as he did last yahr in the second half. The Big Idea here is ----> Not Beating Yourself. Especially when you throw fly balls in a big hurkin' park like Safeco. So, we can wrap our arms around the fact that he's a solid innings eater anyway.
2) Happ has his K's at 7 per game, as he did last year. How in the world he does this, has Dr. D completely flummoxed. He would be you a dollar that NEXT game, Happ would only fan 3 men: and he would lose the bet. It's one of life's great mysteries, how J.A. Happ misses bats. Well, how he gets 7 strikeouts with a 7% swing strike rate. But he's doing it, so
3) Happ is maintaining an ERA of about 3.75, and a FIP of about 3.50. There are a whale of a lot of guys who don't. He is this year's Chris Young, but one notch better. You'll be able to deal him for something neat, if you're so inclined.
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MARINERS VS CHAMPS
On the postgame Tuesday, Bill Kreuger emphasized that the Mariners and Giants are mirror images of one another. In terms of roster construction. Bill's list -- not mine -- was:
So Bill's pulled the string with the question, "what do they got that we don't got?" Now, before you blow off this guy, do keep in mind that he is relaying to you the perspective as a uniformed player on the bench sees it, looking back and forth at both dugouts. It's easy to sympathize. You look at the Giants and Mariners, and if they didn't have their results in the almanac, would you really be able to pick the better team?
At a minimum, you have to allow that both are (way) Stars & Scrubs teams, playing in huge parks. But it underlines the idea that the M's are simply not firing on all cylinders.
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THE MIRROR TEST
If you put a sticker onto a chimp's forehead, it will look into a mirror and realize the sticker is on its own forehead. This is also true -- occasionally, I bet -- of dolphins, elephants, and magpies.
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No word on whether it is true of Danny Farquhar or his cutter. But Dr. D sure would like somebody to show Farquhar his changeup, whether on video, mirror, or Fangraphs pitch type.
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EXTRY INNIN'S
James Jones looks differnt. He is seeing the pitch earlier and he is letting the bat fly with more conviction. Any resemblance to a 2014 Jones is strickly coincidental. Jones' Achilles' heel last year was the slow curve; Dr. D saw him get one of those, and swing over it, but it wasn't as ugly. :: shrug :: Who knows. McClendon brought up the idea of Jones playing CF some against RHP's. Sounds intriguing.
As a completely separate issue, Jones is what, 27-for-28 in stolen bases. It leaves you with two questions: (1) what is a leveraged, 8th-inning stolen base worth -- the answer is, a ton, even in Earl Weaver's book.
And (2) an old Bill James question that he has since abandoned: What are the outer limits of stolen base efficiency in today's game? 2:1 is the breakeven point. If James Jones stole 27-for-40, he'd be breaking even. But that ain't what he's doing, not hardly. Jacoby Ellsbury was 52-4 in 2013, and then 39-5 again last year. If you want to be more fair and take 2012-15 inclusive, he is 109-17. That would be the outer limit, and it's tough to predict Ellsbury to go 109 for his next 126. Hmmm.
Is it feasible to steal 80%, 85% of the time when they're loaded for bear? Just possibly.
The run expectancy: If the leadoff hitter gets on, and Jones comes in (0.5 runs expected), and gets caught (now 0.3 RE) 1 in 6 times, but makes it 5 times (now 1.1 RE), he's pretty much taking you from
To
Don't oversell the pernt. It's merely, Rickey Henderson and Kenny Lofton were devastating late-inning offensive weapons. Jones as pinch-runner, that dog will hunt.
Be afraid,
Dr D
Are we playing Jones or Ackley or Bloomquist in LF vs. LHP? Smith maybe?
I get SB's.....But if we're playing Ackley in LF vs. LHP just so we can have Jones around to pinch run in the 8th inning.....well then, that's something like the cart pushing the horse.
if Jones gets ALL the starts where Jackson, Cruz and Trumbo are resting he's still not getting a ton of starts.
Jones replaing Ackley makes great sense. I'm not seeing it as a replacement for Weeks.
They're going to drop Ackley in a minor trade and call up Gutierrez. That would be my guess.
But The Pencil seemed to speak in terms of his quasi-platooning with Austin Jackson in center field. Per that interview, McClendon sees him as here to stay.
:: shrug :: dunno