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Funny that the worst pitchers in the bullpen are the two lefties and the knucklehead RHP.
"Conventional" wisdom says keep the lefties, but do you really need to when your front 6?! righties are über awesome?
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Awwwwww
There is exactly one (1) reason we're postgaming this one. Sometimes service requires sacrifice. Well, unless you're having Dinner-and-a-Disney-Movie, but then again, any resemblance between Disney movies and Mariner baseball is strictly coincidental.
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/ Gahhhhhh
Did you know some infinities are "denser" than others? Do you believe that the infinite series (1, 2, 3 ... etc) contains fewer numbers than the series (1.1, 1.2, 1.3 ... etc)? Matt could answer that, but for now just chill.
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Dr. D read nothing about the game, as usual, so does not know the answer to this question: How often, in a baseball game, does a run score on a leadoff at-bat, and on no other at-bats?
A friend of ours -- this is a soccer fan, now, from England -- once described this as the dreariest evening POSSIBLE: a baseball game, with one solo homer.
And in this case, the solo homer occurred with about five hours left to play. So the Mariners one-upped my friend's hypothesis. They played a game drearier than he believed possible.
There are infinitely exasperating games, and then there are Mariner-dense infinitely exasperating games.
.......
The moral of the story: it feels worse than it is. We have little doubt that Iwakuma was doing that spin-on-his-head-no-hands breakdance after the game between innings. There are times when insanity is your best friend. Trust me on this one.
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PSST ..
Baseball is cyclical. Benjamin Franklin noticed that about it while he was compiling his Farmer's Almanac. Also, it's a point that SSI is going to run with. Buckle in.
'Is cause 99% of baseball's smartest SABR minds believe there is no such thing as --- > "The Zone" in baseball, no such thing as hot and cold streaks.
On this point, gentlemen, they are mistaken. They haven't found it in their measurements, yet, but that's true of the 12th planet, right? Saber's greatest conceit is that If I Haven't Measured It Yet, You Believe In Tiny Fairies Who Hide Your Car Keys. ("I can't disprove it, but all scientists agree. You're an old grandma who looks for 4-leaf clovers. Please leave and allow the adults to talk.")
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Kyle Seager is on a bit of a dip in the sine wave, and has been for a month.
Kendrys Morales has not yet contributed to the M's. Neither has Austin Jackson. Two words: At. All.
You've got 5 legit hitters, if you count Ackley, but three of them are AWOL as to the question of pulling the July hitting slump to the side of the pool and pounding its chest madly.
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YAY -
The Mariners have already far outlasted the 2011 implosion, which began on July 4th and introduced itself with an 0-and-17 record.
Here we are, one full month later, and the 2014 version of [120 ERA, 89 HIT] is still huffing and puffing after the lead horse.
It isn't that the M's have thrown in the towel. It's that the half of their lineup is outmanned. There's a diff'rnce.
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Whew!!
Sez Jack, who spoke after the deadline as though he has (in calendar year 2014) done way more than enough to return in 2015.
Undoubtedly he knows things we don't. SSI has a new operating assumption here.
And, actually, that's probably fair.
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EEEEeeeeeek;
We have no idea why it is so HARD for the Mariners to find 110 OPS+ hitters to play RF, DH, that kind of position. See Mo' Dawg's article on LoMo. He was swinging great for three weeks, but the shift and Safeco smothered the results, and now somebody has licked the red off his lollipop.
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Chris Denorfia, age 33 and performing (all year) as though he hit the famous "I Was Only Okay at Age 27 and Now I'm Older Than 32" baseball windshield, is the starting right fielder.
Color Dr. D --- > 64 kinds of skeptical on Denorfia. But he cost nothing. It ain't every August you get to see spaghetti thrown against the wall in quite this manner.
Some amigos, you would swear they were time-teleported off the 1977 expansion team -- physical appearance, position/skillset, age, future, the whole 9 yards' worth of ammo. (We're kidding him; baseball players are supposed to be used to that.)
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OOOOPS?
Forgot to mention that there is a (free) BJOL article up, explaining why MLB batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is unaffected by the explosion in defensive shifts.
Let me read that sentence again. 'Cause it doesn't apply to the M's ...
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(Tsk, Tsk)
Dr. D has delayed the onset of the Austin Jackson POTD blizzard, that he might eyes-slideways the dude first.
Plot spoiler:
- He's a league-average hitter, both in actual performance and to the scouting eye
- With legit CF defense
- Whose legs are a considerable plus, on the bases
- 3 WAR ain't 3 WAR when you started at -1 WAR
- It's fascinating how level he hits the ball
- He could get better; foretelling the future is basically what you'd need 6 POTD's for
- If you have to ask why I didn't write "levelly", you wouldn't understand
GRRrrrrrrrr:
The Mariners are going with an extra pitcher, above and beyond the 2 extra pitchers that all MLB teams already carry. Three benchies!
Anybody can see that all extra ballast must be devoted to the team ERA.
In other news, there are several Chris Taylor types who are in Tacoma, while Joe Beimel anchors the pitching staff.
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"D'oh"
It's funny, because Kendrys and Austin Jackson have not yet chipped in, but ... Dr. D does have to admit that the M's have put in some serious hustle in their attempt to trim the sails of their lineup ship.
On paper, this kind of roster is easily capable of winning a championship:
- 123 ERA+ (wow)
- Two Stars in the lineup
- A proven (yep) #1 hitter, also
- A proven #5 hitter, also
- Dustin Ackley
- 9-to-make-5 ... oops, Endy Chavez to make 5
Not "capable of" winning a championship. "Frequently has" won a championship.
Baseball men preach patience. In this case, it actually applies.
At least for another series, anyway,
Dr. D
Comments
2
I just figured this out last night...through August 3, 2014 Seattle has:
1. 15 one run Losses
2. 15 two run Losses
3. 6 three run Losses
36 games that were low scoring games that we couldn't find enough offense to reward our excellent pitching staff throwing lights out! "If" we could have come up with "just a little" offense to win 1/3 of these close games (12 games) we would have an easy 70 Wins right now and in the lead of the division over the A's and Angels.
Watching Iwakuma lose a 1-0 battle last night against one of the top offensive teams in baseball is just crushing to say the least. But then look at the games Felix hasn't won this past month too. Heart wrenching to say the least!
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Very ugly, in fact.
And we survived. But the Yankees and Toronto and TBR got hot when we got cold. Ain't it always that way....
Morales has to hit, hasn't he? Nothing in his past indicates that he's a slow starter, hitting in April for example, and he's well past that stage of his '14. Man, he probably hit as a roly-poly 6 year old playing agains all the 11 year old on the sand lot. Jackson doesn't "have to hit" but he should. Did Lou Brock ever have a prolonged slump? He's #1 on the Comp through Age 26 list. Bernie Williams is #4. Both of those guys got better WELL into their careers. Brock made a hitting leap at AGe 30, Williams at age 28. Jackson isn't there yet.
Jackson did have a July '13 that was only .223-.273-.366. We could see one of those months.
Seager OPS'ed .887 in June and .853 in July. He's at .000 in August. Well, it's early.
If we had Saunders 110 OPS bat in RF right now (assuming Ackley remains decently warm) then we would begin to have something.
I am very concerned about Morrison. I will go read the James' article but I think there are some players who do get hammered by the shift. Overall, it might not show in BABIP (but the 2B in a "Rover" position in short right field and the now depper RF would sure seem to hurt a topspin guy like Morrison) but it could show in K rate. Remember that part of the shift is also a pitching approach. You pitch into the shift and THAT may impact a batter.. Morrison is K'ing at a career high rate, but only marginally so. His BABIP is only .237, but except for a "lucky" rookie season (.351) hes's never been a BABIP guy: .265-.248-.281. Doesn't that seem odd for a guy who seems to hit the ball so hard when he's on? He's actually running a career high LD% rate! Who would have figured that. He's at 21.1% this year. He was between 18% and 20.4% in his previous seasons...so he's pretty stable here. His GB% is at a career low, but just 5% below his career #. His FB rate is at his career norms, too. But his IFB% now comprises almost 1/2 of his FB's. He nearly hits as many IFB's as he does LD's. Whew! That'll kill a BABIP!
I wonder if 3 seasons of watching Morrison hit 20% LD's but get declining performance (and unimpressive BABIP's) convinced the Marlins that he was "flawed" in some quasi-fatal way. Or in some way that made him a limited offensive player. But he's generally hit RHP well enought to have value. The trade is still odd, but perhaps the fish were crazy like foxes.
On the otherhand, he's running a .209 BABIP against RH this year. That can (may?) not continue so he will (likely?) get better.
BTW, he's seen progressively fewer fastballs and sliders since his rookie season. He's seeing more curveballs and changeups. That may be part of the "shift" plan. If the shift is hurting him he'll see more and more of it. I'm not waiting too long on his bat. Not long at all.
And I would still like to see Kelly, with his ability to walk and now slug (especially against RHP), to be getting RF time, perhaps with Denorfia in platoon. At least until Saunders is ready, anyway. The cost would be to DFA Chavez. But Endy does not get on base and he has no pop. He's not good on the field. In his last 16 starts he's been on base 19 times (17 hits---all singles/2 BBs). He's had 70 PA's in those starts. An OBP of .270 with zero mash is well below Brendan Ryan country. Denorfia can pay CF when (if) we sit Jackson. Kelly is more flexible, as well. We have a team OBP that is south of .300, it would see to make since to use the (seemingly) OBP weapons that we have on the farm....or at least give them a run.
Doc, I'm with you. (Other than with Morrison) I'm trying to be patient. We've upgraded our bats and although it was slower than I would have liked the results will begin to show. At least in stretches and that's what we need. Give me a dozen games of hot bats and we go 9-3 or 10-2.
That'll get us optimistic again.
moe
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The old adage "team is not as bad as it looks when it's slumping or as good as it looks when it's streaking" seems to apply. The M's aren't as good as they looked in June or as bad as they looked in July.
Hey - we have a team worth paying attention to in August! The last few years, we've been focusing on the minor leagues and prospects come August.
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He puts in a lefty vs a lefty, if he loses, the sportswriters don't torment him.
Other than that, no. You are better off with an excellent RHP, who is on a roll, than swapping him out for a Joe Beimel. But, you knew that.
Bah humbug.
6
Good post Garry! DaddyO has also been investigating these stats. POTD hopefully forthcoming... DaddyO gave us the link for the M's. Here's the link for the AL. The main thing notable about the M's is not their 0-1 losses, but their ability to win by scoring 3 runs exactly.
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You wonder how Felix and Kuma continue to step up there and execute their pitches. But they do. They're mental freaks, with surgeon-like lack of panic out there. Seriously, once a nurse said "that's the difference between a surgeon and the rest of us. He just keeps calmly doing it, 6 hours, 8 hours; it's unbelievable."
Felix, Kuma, they seem to even surpass that -- in the sense that each pitch has to be an "explosion" of focus, rather than a consistent attention. Grumpy (a surgeon) might have a thought on his own focus vs Iwakuma's. Would be interested to hear.
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and saved myself the time :- )
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Real quick note ... Dewan (not James) remarked that the LEAGUE stats on BABIP are not down (much) because --- > left hand ground balls are a tiny fraction of all outcomes.
For sure there are LHB's who get crushed by the shift. LoMo seems like the worst person in the world to attempt to line the ball THROUGH the shift; it there's one guy who needs to learn the punch-bunt it would be him (or Smoak).
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Sweet to see Ackley bunt, wasn't it? That guy, with his wheels, it should be like shifting Ichiro. Just bop it hard enough to roll by the pitcher.
9
Austin Jackson hasn't done a thing yet but his approach is a lot more hopeful than Kendrys' is right now. While Jackson swings and misses some, I counted 3 line drives right at people as well 2 hot-shot grounders that didn't sneak through just in the 3 games he's been a Mariner (Denorfia had 2 line drives right at people, for what it's worth). He keeps doing this than things will turn around quickly... Or he could fall by the wayside like Morrison did after some bad luck came his way. Here's to guessing that Jackson has better mental make-up than LoMo.
As for Kendrys... He seems to be swinging much harder than I ever remember him swinging. It's like he's trying to get a 4 months worth of home runs and RBI's in one swing, instead of slashing it into the left-center gap. Last series was a little better so maybe he's working his way back. It also just could be my lack of good memory! You can tell he's into these games, which I appreciate. We aren't losing because of a lack of focus. We may be losing because hitters are pressing (Kendrys) All of these guys want it though.
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That post had Iwakuma-esque precision and pitchability...
/cosign every word, though am doubtful as to what anybody's /cosign would mean to yer :- )