1
YEAH BABY! (blurted in true Mike Myers style)
..... M's 9
.......................
=== Jesus Montero ===
Somebody axed the beefy HOF NFL lineman Dan Dierdorf whether he had been on steroids. "I was on cheeseburgers," Dan said. That'll do for us too, but after 30 hits in two days don't be surprised if the lowly Tigers whine for some lab tests.
Jesus Montero .... wait. Actually we should split this out. Man deserves a game ball.
.
=== Ichiro ===
Giving our good friend from UNC-Chapel Hill a friendly nod and smile, lemme turn back to the rest of the bleachers and ask yer.
Have you ever seen Ichiro swing the bat better than this? Did he actually cover the ball better during his 262-hit season, and did he attack the ball any better than this?
| MLB avg | Ichiro 2011 | Ichiro 2012 | |
| Line Drives | 20.6 % | 19.1 | 30.9 |
| OOZ swings | 28.9 | 36.1 | 25.0 |
| Swings & misses | 8.8 | 4.6 | 3.4 |
Ichiro's groundball rate, lifetime, is 2.35; that went up to 2.84 last year. This year his groundball rate is an amazing 1.24. He's swinging with great attack, intending to hit the ball in the air for line drives and for extra bases.
FWIW, he's on pace for 3.5, 4.0 WAR and that is after the effects of his unlucky BABIP. His speed score is its highest since 2008.
As of the end of April, looks like we got our HOF'er back. Wedge put him in the 3 hole in the middle of rallies, and Ichiro shrunk his zone and swung harder, and Ichiro got better.
If his BABIP matched his LD%, Ichiro would be on pace for one of his three or four best seasons. This one, 2001, 2004, maybe 2007.
.
=== Liddi ===
Bleary-eyed, all we can offer is a placeholder before the morning game :- ) but it wouldn't be a postgame without joining the cyber-party over our new sensation...
1. They cut to Bill Krueger for analysis, after the home run. They caught Bill, a great guy, way off guard and not ready to comment. He blurted that Liddi is like Mike Schmidt. "All hands."
2. Liddi swung HUGE at that tater pitch, a much longer swing than on his first tater. He tried to yank at least one outside pitch, swinging through it. Dr. D hopes (and thinks that probably) Liddi swung so hard because that's what great hitters do when they see high-school 86 centered fastballs. Dr. D hopes it is not because Alex Liddi is going to get drunk with success, and get greedy with his swing. Probably he won't. Take a breath, Alex.
3. Before the game, before the second home run, Wedge was quoted widely as saying that the ball jumps off Liddi's bat better than anybody's -- he had Montero in the spring, has had Saunders, etc. Mike Blowers, a very understated man, couldn't stop going on about Liddi's talent.
In other words, babe, they are just about ready to reward the great attitude during that bench-freeze period. All Liddi has to do is keep hitting, and parlay this hot streak into a fixed place in the game. He's maybe one or two months out from having grabbed a job he'll never lose.
4. Liddi's Out of Zone (OOZ) swing % this year is a fantabulous 18.1% -- the league average is 28%. Dr. D cannot imagine what is going to happen if Alex Liddi is able to apply a Better Than Average (BTA) swing rate to balls outside the strike zone.
If Alex Liddi continues this policy of refusing to swing at bad balls, continues to force pitchers to stick their fingers into the mouth of the lion, he is a roto Big Grab. With 44-ouncer on the side.
If he were an Angel and I were playing roto this year, and if Liddi's PT was open to negotiation, he'd be a prime target. This guy is a legit sleeper.
.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
2
YEAH BABY!
Maybe we're just seen Liddi in the best streak of his career.......but what I've really noticed is how calm he seems at the plate.
This guy has 22 MLB games under him....and basically was thrown this year to the slag heap by Wedge....and then when he gets in he's as cool as Steve McQueen.
The game slows down for him (witness the double play ball he started last night) and he looks like 10 year vet at the plate. On his last AB K last night they started attacking him up. That might be a good short term strategy......it may result in some Big Bertha (or would it be Big Sophia for him) shots.
3
Just fyi ... the MLB Net game I taped with the Ms I didn't get to watch ... because they decided Oakland Angels was more appropriate for the NC market than Seattle Cleveland. (sigh).
I am thrilled to see Ichiro finally getting production that matches up with what y'all are seeing. I really am. I look at Fangraphs and see the 30.9% LD%. I have never, at any point, questioned that Ichiro is, in fact, at this moment, completely on fire. I AGREE.
My entire position has been (and remains) ... if Ichiro is on fire .. and he's only posting a .750 OPS ... what happens when he is no longer on fire?
Ichiro, at age 27 ... when he was on fire .. (May of 2001) ... had a slash line of .379/.409/.532 (.941). He hit 11 doubles and 4 triples that month, (no HRs ... shrug). He also managed 14 RBI from the leadoff slot. I don't know what his LD% was during that month ... but I would certainly guess it was sky high, (his BABIP was .395, just fyi ... though in August he would destroy that with a .472 BABIP month).
My point is simply this. A hitter on fire ... *ANY* hitter on fire, tends to produce at a rate 100-200 OPS points ABOVE what his average production is.
Ichiro in 2001 had a pair of months near .950 ... and a final OPS of .838.
Ichiro in 2004 (his 262 hit year) had best months of 1129 and .960 ... and a final .869.
Ichiro in 2007 had a best month of 1002 -- and a final .827.
The fact that Ichiro's OPS is up to .768 is obviously a good thing. The fact he is "having" to run a 30% LD rate in order to produce "only" a .768 OPS is what concerns me.
My eyes-on history tells me this. In baseball, men in their primes ... age 27 ... typically only hold onto "the zone" for a max of about 6 weeks at a time. Likewise, they typically only slump for a max of about 6 weeks. Those are the extremes, and most slumps and streaks don't extend that far.
Last year ... 2011 ... what did Ichiro do in April?
2011: .328/.380/.378 (.758) ... 39 hits, 6 doubles, 12-RBI, 10-BB; 6-K (28 games)
2012: .316/.337/.430 (.768) ... 25 hits 4 doubles, 1-3B, 1-HR, 9-RBI; 3-BB; 7-K (19-G)
My question is simply: What is he "likely" to do the rest of the way?
He hit .758 last April and .645 for the season. My concern is simply ... if this IS Ichiro, on fire, and he's hitting "only" .768 ... what does that say about the coming year on the whole?
What I'm hearing, (not sure if this your intent), is that Ichiro is hitting great ... and you expect another 5 months of the current Ichiro, so the year is going to be great.
I know Ichiro is a special hitter. He breaks many standard rules. But, in the best hitting year of his entire career, he had a 500 point OPS gap between best and worst months of production. Forgotten in the wake of his 262 hit season is that his April that season was a .613 OPS on a .255 BA, where he managed only 26 hits. He would ultimately go on to amass 50 hits in 4 of the six months, (but June that year, he managed only a .697 and 29 hits).
My disconnect from the current view of Ichiro is not based on watching Ichiro. It is based on watching players like Andruw & Chipper Jones for 15 years. I learned year after year that April production doesn't define an entire year. That even when you are speaking about the most consistent hitters of their generation, (and Chipper was one), that they run hot & cold ... multiple times ... every year.
It was more noticeable with someone like Andruw, who looked like Babe Ruth at the plate one week and looked like he was swinging an armful of laundry the next. But, it's true of all hitters ... even Ichiro.
So, Ichiro today is on fire ... and has a .768 OPS. Albert Pujols is struggling badly and has a .601 OPS.
What would you project their final 2012 slashlines to be? Which guy is most likely to post an OPS over .800 this year? And is that answer more accurately derived from how each "looks" at the plate at this instant ... or is it more accurately derived by viewing their historic stat lines ... factoring in age ... park ... and yes, including how they look at the plate as PART of that assessment?
4
according to Churchill, are the best in the organization. I assume he's talking about the big league club too because that's where Liddi's playing, but maybe he's talking about just the minors. It's buried in a paragraph about Catricala in his most recent prospect report. Link here: http://prospectinsider.com/view/prospect-notebook:-promising-starts/
I can't answer how defensive and offensive hand quickness or awareness or whatever adjective is correct relate to each other, but it intuitively makes sense that excellent hands would translate at the plate and on the field. Good hands also seem like the most important skill good defensive third basemen and first basemen need.
5
SANDY RALEIGH!!!!!!!
*ding ding ding ding ding!!!*
How does it feel, Sandy, now that you've won this prestigious award! :)
Dude...why are you still talking about Ichiro's OPS? We put that point in the ground, buried it, and then built a moseleum above it to commemorate its futility in life. This is just utterly baffling to me...we scream "Ichiro's LOCKED IN baby" you say "he's hitting .275 with no walks ad now power...if this is locked in, he's in trouble", me answer "he's ridiculously unluciky, it'll even out"...and then it DOES start to even out some...and you still go "well he's only hitting .750" Wake up and smell the dead horse...you flogged it for no reason.
Just wow.
6
What Jason was talking about was really evident in the double play that Liddi started.
Highlight here: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=20921381&c_id=mlb
Blowers also commented on how Liddi's made a number of great plays in spring training and on this play how he uses his hands to stay with the ball, not panic and make a hard play look easy.
- Ben.
7
What Jason was referring to was that Liddi has the best hands of all the third-base prospects in the system. Best overall hands probably belong to Gabby Noriega.
8
for the clarifications and explanations.
9
Jason A. Churchill on 09-01-2011 18:19:37Liddi is NOT part of the future because he isn't any good and can't play anywhere but third base where Seager is light years better, anyway.
So apparently Jason found some good things in his skillset once Liddi made the 25-man. Alex is showing that power tool is not exaggerated, and he can play third without embarrassing himself (regardless of the bad hop today). I've described him as-is as a Tony Batista type of 3B. His skillset has value even if he doesn't max it out, and if he DOES, then he's some version of Troy Glaus.
But Churchill believe he's got "good hands" now, so that's something. Baby steps. I think Liddi gets a raw deal sometimes because he's European in appearance and so the expectation is not for him to have such a raw skillset. If he was from Cuba all the talk would be about his potential - except from me and Matt, since we both dislike Cuban hitters.
It's taken Liddi a while to get a handle on his skillset, as raw as he was. He's repeated leagues and looked decidedly below-average at times, but his power has grown with his frame. He's mastering defense far better than I believed he would - I saw him play SS competently in Tacoma, and he definitely has the arm for 3rd or the OF if we feel like we HAVE to move him there.
I've heard people talk about how he's just a platoon bat, which also doesn't make sense to me - he's worked really hard on hitting righties, and was better against RHP than LHP last year. He slugged .500 against righties at 22 years of age in AAA. That'll work.
He's got a big zone. He's gonna strike out. But if you're willing to bear Glaus / Sexson level Ks, and Liddi will keep taking on balls outside instead of putting himself in a bad position...
We're gonna have trouble passing him over as a player who's "not any good." And I say that as an acknowledged doubter that Liddi will reach his upside. His current-side is still plenty useful, as we're discovering, and he's obviously still improving in the field and at the plate.
~G
10
Wilhelmson. Superb facing Cabrera, Fielder and Young. Cannot say enough, especially being down 3-0 to Fielder and coming back to get him.
11
both gutted it out. Mad props to the pen tonight. Noesi blew up so fast he blew the lead in the time it took Furbush to swap out chew for chewing gum and put on a glove. Now, I'd have had guys warming up in the 5th already with MOTO guys coming up if the Tigers got a hit...
But pen management aside, that's some good work by our fellas. League did his part in the 9th too. The whole pen performing under pressure, gotta like that.
~G
12
But that Cabrera homer just drifted out over Chone, just as his Double drifted to the wall. I was going to remark on Ryan's incredible walk rate (now 18.3%!), but then I went looking to see if he'd ever done it before, and sure enough, after his 17th game last year (where we are presently for him) it stood at 12.9%, then he didn't walk for the next 19 games. Weird that both he and Olivo (obviously not this year) seem prone to walking so much more in the early season.
13
You coulda found a dozen quotes like that, from that blog and another one I could name.
All along, you were giving a nuanced and informative take on Alex Liddi's chances, and the same sites who authoritatively stamped him DOA are now positioning themselves to have seen his potential all along.
Bah humbug.
14
The "great hands" shtick is way over-the-top if you ask me.
He MIGHT be major league average right now, and that is a compliment. He does have FAST hands, and per the Zduriencik Doctrine it's easy to visualize him as a future plus infielder.
I'm fairly confident that Alex Liddi can play 3B, but the jury ain't in yet.
That's a lot more generous than Liddi got last year, the standard "get him out of there" pseudo-scouting that the blogs apply to anybody with a less than gold glove.
15
Some guys are jelling a bit. A little bit.
16
Liddi doesn't get phased over there, and he does have quick hands - I'd hate to box him. Not sure how soft they are. Like the one that clanked off the heel down the line in the late innings today, that was a stab.
Liddi has averaged a good solid 30 errors per year in the minors, 29.7 errors per 155 games. Let him make three errors the next week and he'll be back to "DOA" with a lot of cyber-scouts.
I like his potential, and would definitely give him a good chance at 3B, but would defer to G-Moneyball's prognosis as of April 26, 2012.
G? Percentage chance that Liddi becomes an okay 3B? A plus one?
17
R: Reynolds
G: Glaus
L: Liddi
S: Seager
B: Beltre
Liddi won't give back most or all of his offensive output like Reynolds has been known to do with a horrible glove. He's more athletic than Glaus. As a big man he's not as nimble as little-guy Seager and getting back to his feet after a dive requires more effort. He'll NEVER be a Beltre.
But Glaus kept playing third despite constantly running 25-30 error seasons out there. Liddi has a good arm and has gotten much better with his feet - just make sure the guy on first can catch (Smoak can) and it'll be all right.
Do we wanna run a .250/.310/.450 third baseman out there if he's giving up 30 bases to the opposition? Not if Noesi is out there, obviously. But this is a team desperate for thump. Liddi's power plays in any park, and I think his glove is acceptable now.
And it can get better. Alex has played opposite 26 different first basemen, only one of which has played even half a season at the position. Defense can always get better, and the guy across the diamond can help you out. Hard for him to do that if it's a different guy every night and you don't know where you can throw it and have him bail you out, though.
Liddi's shown he's willing to put in work on his D - I think he can hang at that spot. And if he's more .260/.330/.480...yowza.
Lots of interesting guys on this team.
~G
18
I was starting to marvel at Ryan's transformation into the Greek god of walks.
19
Even if you are right to question Ichiro's OPS given that he's blistering hot...um...there's this thing called context. Those other hot seasons you described had much higher run-scoring contexts (weaker pitching to face)...this year, his OPS+...with a ton of bad luck included!...is 118. His best season...is like 130. :) Just saying. It's a pitcher's league now.
20
If Ryan was adding patience. He has enough pop that if he had better plate patience might show up better, right now his ISO is .170(SSS), if he wasn't suffering so badly from a sub .200 BABiP, he would look like Derek Jeter-lite right now.
21
Well, I feel honored to win the award ... appreciating that the guy giving it to me continues to blindly believe that 100% of every difference between LD% and BABIP is luck.
My foundation point is simple: BABIP to LD% is NOT 100% luck. In point of fact, I posted a long post on just how completely disconnected LD% and BABIP become the instant LD% escapes from a very narrow band of "normal".
My premise is that BABIP is not always luck ... and to date absolutely nobody has presented any evidence or argument to refute that premise.
But fine ... Griffey was just unlucky his final season.
Sexson was just unlucky his final season.
Figgins was just unlucky last season.
But, if you can be incredibly unlucky, can you not be incredibly lucky too?
Last season, there was one guy in the entire AL who managed a LD% above 25%, (Michael Young had a 26.2% LD% for the season, (and a corresponding .367 BABIP). However, only 2 of the top 10 in BABIP actually managed the 100 over that is being discussed as if it is law. Here's the entire top 10 in LD% with their BABIP and point differential. They were all qualifiers.
J. Ellsbury -- 22.9 - .336 -- (107)
M. Young -- 26.2 - .367 -- (105)
V. Martinez - 24.2 - .343 -- (101)
R. Cano -- 22.3 - .316 --- (93)
A. Callaspo - 22.4 - .310 -- (86)
Elvis Andrus - 23.1 - .312 - (81)
Konerko -- 22.4 - .304 --- (80)
Pennington - 24.8 - .314 -- (66)
Markakis -- 23.1 - .300 --- (69)
Coco Crisp - 24.0 - .284 -- (44)
The central mean difference between LD and BABIP of the top 10 in LD% last year was only 83.
You want current context - how about the top 10 LD% in the AL at this moment? Tell me, based on your luck premise ... whose OPS scores will go up the rest of the way?
R. Sweeney - 32.0 - .460 (+140) -- .990
Torii Hunter - 30.6 - .400 (+94) -- .703
Joe Mauer - 29.7 - .349 (+52) -- .812
S. Duncan - 27.3 - .323 (+50) -- .757
ShinSoo Choo - 27.9 - .326 (+47) -- .697
Ichiro S. --- 31.2 - .316 (-4) -- .731
A. De Aza -- 28.6 - .281 (-5) -- .833
C. Santana - 29.3 - .263 (-30) -- .839
Ian Kinsler - 31.9 - .279 (-40) --- 1016
Granderson - 39.6 - .286 (-110) -- .931
First off, there's only 2 guys currently in the top 10 LD% with positive difference above 52.
The four guys with the worst "luck" so far, also just happen to have 4 of the 5 best OPS figures so far.
The problem here Matt is that you assume LD% is 100% skill and BABIP is 100% luck. I recognize that LD% above 30% is "luck" ... in the sense that it is completely unsustainable.
You ask me to project what Granderson or Kinsler is going to do for the rest of the year and I will go examine their career slashlines, age, parks, lineup position, etc. Knowing that Granderson is currently 110 points UNLUCKY in BABIP will have absolutely zero bearing on what I expect him to do the rest of the way. Same with Kinsler.
At this point, I still see a final OPS below .700 for Ichiro. If he'd take some time off, I could see avenues where he might exceed that. But, if he remains a 161 game guy, I think a repeat of 2011 (or worse) is highly likely.
Before the season began I predicted a number of things with Ichiro due to the lineup change:
1) More LD% and a lower BABIP.
2) Fewer SBs
3) Fewer Infield Hits - (the primary drive of the lower BABIP)
4) Fewer walks
5) A fast start
6) Continuing to play every day
7) Fast start (high motivation), and a significant collapse if he doesn't get rest.
I have yet to see or hear anything to suggest that I'm wrong. But hey ... if you want to continue believing that BABIP is luck in all cases that's your choice.
22
Sorry Sandy, but you've constructed a straw man to bash, rather than actually confronting Doc's point or mine.
I am not treating all differences between xBABIP and actually BABIP as luck...I'm treating them with skepticism as any good scientist should. But more importantly, no one ever said exactly 100 was gospel...we said the distribution of deltas from that expectation is relatively small over 500 PA. Bad hitters might only get 75 or 65 points of BABIP over LD% and really good ones might have years where they get 125 points. But No one...especially no one who looks as good as Ichiro currently does at the plate (please...I'm begging you to actually watch Ichiro hit, Sandy)...is going to run a MINUS FRIGGIN FOUR. That's ZERO players who will do that. In his last years i.220 n the big leagues.
You examples of non-luck BABIPs...Jr. Griffey in his last years and Richie Sexson in his...
Sexson in 2007 ran a .217 BABIP with a 15% LD rate. That's +67...on the low end of expectation, but not out of whack entirely...we predicted his LD% was a tad anomalous and we predicted that he would get a higher BABIP - LD delta the enxt year. AND HE DID. He hit .262 for a BABIP on a 17% line drive rate...that +92. Logic 1 - Sandy ZERO
Jr. Griffey in his last two seasons as a Mariner ran these numbers:
.220 BABIP and 17% line drives (+50)
.220 BABIP (short sample) and 18% line drives (+40)
Of course...his LD% was trending down overall and if you actually watched him hit, many of his line drives were softly hit flares...Ichiro's KILLING the ball. But still...we'll give you a bit of credit here...Griffey demonstrated real negative skill in this regard late. IT STILL WASN'T MINUS FRIGGIN FOUR points type "skill".
On your current list: I would in fact argue that Granderson, Choo, etc are clearly unlucky on their line drives at the moment (if by luck we mean that their current deltas are not sustainable). It may have something to do with the April air making some line drives hang up...I'd be curious whether the delta is typically different in April than the rest of the year. But the underlying point remains: Ichiro is hitting the ball harder...hitting more line drives, his walk rate is down for now but so is his K rate and his OOZ SW% (he's putting it in play more often and harder because they're throwing him more strikes and he's refusing to swing at balls).
He doesn't have a ton of infield hits BECAUSE HE'S KILLING THE BALL...he gets infield hits when he's NOT killing the ball. :) hard to get an infield hit when the ball hits the outfield. But his speed score has not diminished much in the last few years...and is actually UP at the start of the 2012 season.
I am open to the argument that he needs off days and won't get them and that this could depress his final numbers. But the rest of your argument just seems off track to me. Sorry.
23
Where we agree:
1) Ichiro cannot possibly sustain a 30+ LD%.
2) Ichiro cannot possibly sustain a -4 LD/BABIP.
3) Ichiro is currently blistering hot.
At no point have I even hinted that I expected his current -4 would be a permanent fixture. In point of fact, I have said on more than one occasion that I expect his ultimate BABIP to land around .295 ... where it was last year. My position is that the current -4 ... after 1/8 of the season ... is indicative of NOTHING in regards to luck.
You are 100% correct that over 500 PAs Ichiro cannot possibly sustain a -4. But, you completely miss the fact I didn't give you one guy - I gave you FOUR guys that are currently in the same boat as Ichiro ... running negative LD/BABIP skews.
Of course, I haven't heard anyone else actually project Ichiro's season LD% or his BABIP.
I'm attempting to project an "aging" player. I have repeatly seen aging players show a crash in BABIP just before retirement. For his career, Ichiro has a LD% of 20.3 and a BABIP of .351. So, for Ichiro, a 148 point delta is "normal".
Before last season, Ichiro had only a single season with a BABIP below .333. That was the .316 BABIP he posted in 2005 (with a 22.5% LD rate). Last season, his BABIP crashed to .295 and his skew crashed to only 104.
My opinion is the current sample size is such that putting any weight at all on LD% of BABIP is completely misplaced. They are effectively meaningless at this point in the season. This is why we entire lists of people not only outside of normalcy ... but drastically outside any bounds of reasonableness.
Where we disagree:
1) Ichiro's current OPS is "unlucky" (based on his *CURRENT* LD/BABIP profile)
2) That because he is currently "unlucky" his stats are headed up, (though you haven't specified to where).
3) And mostly ... it is possible to "discern" luck from skill through visual inspection.
Are you willing to use the same logic on Granderson? Or Kinsler? Will their OPS scores be heading upward? If not ... why not? Based on LD/BABIP numbers, no one in the AL has been unluckier than Granderson.
Kotchman: Lifetime: 17.7% -- .277 -- (perfect 100)
Seattle -- 2010: 17.5% -- .229 -- (horrid 54 ... universally viewed as utterly w/o skill)
Tampa -- 2011: 18.3% -- .335 -- (172!)
I am completely willing to agree the Kotchman was lucky in 2011 ... and unlucky in 2010. But, the ability of humans to discern luck from skill was (in looking back at opinions) completely worthless.
Figgins career: 23.0 -- .329 -- (normal 99)
Figgins 2010: 20.8 -- .314 -- (normal 106)
Figgins 2011: 18.3 -- .215 -- (32!!)
Figgins 2012: 26.0 -- .314 -- (54)
When I examine Figgins' 2011 line ... I do not see excessive unluck. I can see a decoupling of LD/BABIP. That, for me, is the canary in the coal mine. When you get an excessive skew from normalcy, that is precisely when you're seeing skill erosion masquerading as luck. Happened with Sexson ... happened with Griffey ... happened with Figgins.
In the end, I expect his LD% to swoon ... probably beat last season, but ultimately land somewhere around 20-21%. I expect his BABIP to end up with a positive skew of 90ish. So, his BABIP will ultimately land pretty close to where it is now ... probably just a little lower. (Much depends on if he continues playing every day).
We can agree to disagree ... but I am curious as to where you see his LD%, BABIP and OPS winding up in the end.
24
You're basing your entire projection of Ichiro's BABIP (.295) on his age...and persistence from last year. He's a completely different player this year...completely different trajectories, completely different discipline stats (speaking of which pitches he is swinging at), completely different batted ball velocity.
You could argue that Ichiro can't sustain a 30% LD rate...but you cannot argue .295 based on persistence and age curves for normal players.
My projections would be something like 23% line drives, .330 BABIP
25
Only in 2011 was it down. Even in 2010 and 2011, Ichiro in his mid-30's, it was .350-.360.
Got to throw out ten years, and keep one, to project a BABIP much below .340, .350.
26
He has lost a step despite the early speed score hike this year...I think he won't get 50 IF hits anymore...more like 25-30. So that costs him 20 points of BABIP. But I would agree that projecting .295 is premature.