=== Ichiro ===
Is now 11-for-28 against Justin Verlander. That's .393 against the hardest thrower in the American League. Any respect for Japanese baseball goin' on yet?
The game-winning HR* that Ichiro hit was off a 96 fastball, and it was pulled right into Ichiro's power alley.
We remember when Ichiro came up, naysayers complaining that you could knock the bat out of his hands :- ) ... that Ichiro couldn't hit a good fastball. Justin Verlander would beg to differ.
This is some HOF leadoff man we got here, wouldn'tcha say?
.
=== Ackley and Brett ===
Okay, this is OT. As Jack would tell Burger King, "Do somethin' about it!"
Lonnie, who is one of the really hip technical analysts in the blog-o-sphere, pointed out the Charlie Lau checkpoints in Ackley's swing (as well as good-naturedly chiding Dr. D for not noticing how high the pitches were on Baseball Intellect).
We joked about Ackley being our George Brett -- Lau was Brett's, and indirectly Frank Thomas' hitting coach, and one of the most controversial figures in baseball history. Anyway, we mentioned Brett, whereupon Lon quickly disavowed, and burned the cassette tape.
Brett is the FANTASY comparison of course. :- )
...............
For you kiddies who just joined us, in 1980 Brett made a very serious run at .400 when he was age-27 peak, a run at .400 where he finished the year at .390 with 42 doubles/triples and 24 homers.
This created a ... wait for it ... 203 OPS+.
203 OPS+ from a gap hitter.
Brett was hitting exactly .400 on September 19th, the 148th game of the season.
.....................
Where Brett is useful here, is that he illustrates the upper bounds of what a modern-day gap hitter can do WITH THE BAT (as opposed to with walks).
A gap hitter who hits the ball very hard, can hit .310 with tons of doubles, 20-25 homers, and be the best player in the league.
Brett had OPS+'s of 203, 178, 158, and lots of 145's -- despite hitting 23 homers and not walking all that much.
You can wallbang your way to dominant seasons.
.
=== Michael Saunders ===
Okay. I'm hereby predicting that Michael Saunders will be a regular in the big leagues, have a good career and log 4,000 AB's or something.
In case we didn't notice, Justin Verlander was cruising with a 10K shutout when Saunders ripped a 95 fastball into the hole, STOLE SECOND BASE, and disrupted Verlander long enough for Ichiro's home run. And that was the game.
Saunders is an interesting player AS A LEADOFF MAN. Think about it.
But he's not a leadoff man: he's a 6' 5" lefty who will hit plenty of homers, will play a tremendous LF and/or a respectable CF. He's very quick to the ball, can turn around a 97 fastball to his pull field.
He's a legit 5-tool player and a heady 5-tool player, a guy who takes the bunt when it's there, the SB when it's there, who has a fine feel for the game, excellent concentration, good poise.
I don't know if Saunders will be an average LF or what he'll be, but I'll be very surprised if he doesn't log some 140-game seasons over the next 6-8 years.
Cheers,
Dr D
John Olerud.
Olerud had a pretty level 20-HR swing, tremendous gap power (40-50 2Bs), a great eye, and was difficult to K because he was a great contact hitter. Most years he'd give you .300/.400/.500 and occasionally he'd get into the zone and hit .400/.500/.600 for three months and finish the season with a .350 average.
Tell me where I'm wrong here. :)
He's John Olerud with wheels. Being patient and waiting for his pitch is not a problem for him. Nothing's a problem for him. He should have been drafted as a teen and be killing it in the bigs already.
As as middle IF he'd be a ridiculous bargain, but even in the OF or at 1B...the bat should play anywhere. You'd like to keep the corners available for bigger HR threats...but how long did Ole play a major role at 1B with adequate-but-not-great HR power?
And Ackley can run the bases too. Bring him on, at whatever position.
I'm glad you like my comp from May, Matt. :P
But it's why I'm not that worried about playing him at 1B or LF if Guti's in CF for a year or whatever of Ackley's time on the big club. IMO that bat will play, and the HR power will come as he ages and tweaks his swing arc slightly. Even if it doesn't, another handy comp with the bat would be Mark Grace, I would think. Imagine if Mark Grace had actually done something with his off time other than drink and smoke, and I get chills imagining that in Ackley.
And Saunders has always seemed like a player to me. He's still waiting for something to click, but when it comes, look out. He's a scrapper with mad ball skills. I far prefer those to scrappers with no ball skills.
Can I figure out how to win with the production of park-suited Mike Cameron in LF, Jacque Jones in CF, and Mark Grace at 1B? I'm still looking for a clubber, but yeah, I should be able to build a winner with that starting point. Especially since my Mark Grace can play CF if we decide to move Jacque Jones outta here.
What's Adam Dunn doing again?
~G
"Olerud with wheels" -- watch him beat out an infield hit at the 0:39 mark here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06fjAWUbrqw. John Olerud ain't doing that.
I have no idea how reliable the little ratings at the Baseball Cube are, but here they are (they're on a scale of 100):
Ackely: Power 75; Speed 72; Contact 97; Patience 84
Olerud: Power 77; Speed 1; Contact 84; Patience 93
Ventura: Power 85; Speed 11; Contact 72; Patience 92
Brett: Power 72; Speed 39; Contact 95; Patience 57
Gwynn: Power 41; Speed 68; Contact 100; Patience 33
Utley: Power 92; Speed 55; Contact 57; Patience 48
The scouting reports all say plus speed or plus-plus speed. Gwynn routinely stole 30+ bags until age 30, and never struck out, but he never drew walks like Ackely has shown. Utley strikes out a ton more than Ackely ought to.
Maybe the guy is just a freak that can't be comped.
Here, by the way is a nice extended piece worth watching (makes the Utley and Gwynn comps) but it doesn't really showcase the speed: http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=4656301
He was ready for the big leagues instantly.
I don't think I've ever seen a hitter more willing to take strike three. Olerud's discipline at the plate, in terms of pure human patience, was the most extreme I've seen.
There's no such thing as a .400 OBP player who couldn't help you win a pennant, right?
Like you say G, it's pretty bloomin' sad to see a huge talent get to the majors, wallow in the lifestyle, and see himself as "part of The Show" more than he is a 7 pm warrior out to kill or be killed.
What would happen if you crossed a Grace with a Willie Bloomquist's attitude? ... maybe Ichiro is what you'd get ... pound-for-pound, that is...
What would Olerud have hit, in 1993, if he'd beaten out a bunch of infield hits?
I don't think there's a thing wrong with M's fans spending the offseason daydreaming about Ackley's best-case scenarios. Baseball is for fun.
And why I do not care at all about Saunders.
And why I'm not even remotely worried about LF as a postiion we need to fill in the off-season.
Way I see it...we need a slugging DH and maybe a starting pitcher if we can't find 4 pieces of spaghetti that stick behind King Felix. That's it.
C: Rob Johnson / Kenji Johjima / Adam Moore - already signed for 2010
1B: Russ Branyan certain to sign an extension and Mike Carp in the wings if Branyan flops
2B: Jose Lopez
3B: Jack Hannahan / Bill Hall / Matt Tui...I think you can find an 80 OPS with a good glove out that trio used intelligently
SS:Jack Wilson
LF: Ackley / Langerhans / Saunders
CF: Gutierrez / Ackley
RF: Ichiro
SP: King Felix / Rockin' Rollin-Smith / Doug Fister (yes...really third) / Brandon Morrow / Ian Snell / Erik Bedard on a really cheap deal maybe / Luke French if you get desperate
RP: Aardsma still pretty cheap / Lowe still cheap / Fields / White / French / Olson / Jakubauskas / Hill / Morrow if it doesn't work out starting / Bedard if he can't stay healthy starting etc
I don't see why this club...as assembled (if relatively healthy compared to this year) and adding Ackley OPSing 100 in his rookie season (picture .260/.360/.390) can't win a lot of games in 2010 with the right DH plugged in *cough*Dunn*cough*