Seattle Sports Insider

Jose Lopez' Stock Soars - 2

Posted by

4/22/10

SSI Magic 8 Ball had guessed that the moment Lopez played an ML reg-season game at third, he'd never in his career see another game at 2B. Except as a backup. That looks like a given now.

Now that Jose Lopez is going to be a Gold Glove candidate at 3B, rather than a dubious 2B, his value goes way up.

=== Comparables ===

As JLo settles into 3B as a plus glove and a .280, 25-homer, 90-RBI bat, one of his natural comparables becomes.... Adrian Beltre! Beltre also had several years as a 20-25 homer, 90 RBI, low-OBP hitter. He wasn't as good a hitter as Lopez is, but was very similar stylistically.

Take Adrian Beltre, slide 5-10 of his defensive runs over into offensive runs created, and you're pretty close to Jose Lopez. JLo is, right now, Beltre red-shifted a bit towards offense.

Travis Fryman and Gary Gaetti and Brooks Robinson, in his 30's, were also similar players to what Lopez is right now, though Lopez retains upside.

If you were in the bleacher section that wanted to retain Adrian Beltre for $10M per year or so, congrats. Capt Jack scored you a slight variant on Beltre for 2/$8m.

................

Incidentally, Beltre is hitting a woeful .259/.268/.315 in Fenway. In the Baker interview, Bill James (a Red Sox advisor) contradicted Dr. D by saying that the Sox don't expect Beltre to benefit much from Fenway. They figure that the trajectories of Beltre's fly balls will bounce off, not go over, the Green Monster.

They paid $10m per, to get an average-solid 3B who will, relative to the average 3B, gain them runs with the mitt and lose them runs with the bat.

................

Beltre, coming off a terrible 2009 season, made $10m x 2 years in Boston. This is also a good figure for what Jose Lopez would be worth on the FA market: $10m x 4 years (since he is not past 30 as Beltre is).

Which raises the question: why would Jose Lopez, making $3m and $5m the next two years -- and with obvious upside remaining -- be anything other than one of the most desirable trade commodities in the league?

Magic 8 Ball says that as soon as GM's scout Lopez' appealing defense at 3B, they're going to line up. I wonder if Zduriencik foresaw this.

=== San Diego ===

Rebuilding clubs don't insist on minor-leaguers only. They also want to underpay players who can help them now. There's a game Friday night.

The Pads have a big hole at 2B, and Lopez is a young infielder making 1/3 the salary he deserves. But Lopez is establishing himself as a 3B...

Right this second, the Pads are 9-6, granted. But they are not going to be able to sign Gonzalez, period. I wonder what their long-term plans are on Chase Headley and Kyle Blanks. Headley has played most of his games in the OF the last two years, though of course that might have been because of Kouzmanoff...

SD has the Adam Dunn-like, 400-lb. Kyle Blanks in RF and Venable in LF, with Headley at 3B. I wonder if, in a Lopez deal, they would set it up Blanks 1B, Lopez 3B, Venable-Headley OF. That's a pretty smooth config if you ask me.

Alternatively, there's always Capt Jack's patented 3-way deal :- )

Cheers,

Dr D

Comments

Lopez vs. Headley

I wonder what their long-term plans are on Chase Headley and Kyle Blanks. Headley has played most of his games in the OF the last two years, though of course that might have been because of Kouzmanoff...
SD has the Adam Dunn-like, 400-lb. Kyle Blanks in RF and Venable in LF, with Headley at 3B. I wonder if, in a Lopez deal, they would set it up Blanks 1B, Lopez 3B, Venable-Headley OF. That's a pretty smooth config if you ask me.

I don't understand something. You bring up Lopez's fantastic UZR thus far as evidence that he's an excellent 3B, but then question Headley, a player you don't (nor I, admittedly) know anything about beyond potentially his UZR and... he's only a half-step below Lopez at a UZR/150 of 18.8.

The 'evidence'

put forth thus far consists of observations about Lopez' particular physical makeup, physical skills (very impressive first step/reactions both in the field and in the box) and stronger than average arm. Those things are first. The UZR is just statistical data to support (tentatively) these observations which *seem* to indicate that 3B is a naturally good fit for Jose.
The implication was also made that Kyle Blanks is unlikely to be Endy Chavez out there, due to the Adam Dunn 400lb remark. Thusly, we have:
1. Jose Lopez looks like he *should* be an above average 3B
2. The data seems to support this.
3. The Padres have *apparent* defensive shortcomings at COF, which could be addressed by;
4. Acquiring Lopez to play 3B, freeing Headley (a naturally athletic guy, likely to contribute defensively at any corner position, a notion which is supported by his previous playing time at COF) to move from 3B to COF, while simultaneously;
5. Sliding Blanks into the least demanding defensive position on the diamond, 1B.
Personally, I think it's a good fit. More flexibility always helps. A RF who can play 3B, a 3B who can play 2B and a 1B who can play RF make for all kinds of potential late-game moves with potential impact.

Kotchman at 2b?

I've been listening to the Lopez for AG speculation for months ... and I'm still left with the one overwhelming variable in all of this that that gets the least attention: Who plays Lopez' position for the Ms if/when Lopez leaves?
Okay - the club has Figgins at 2B - so 3B is the spot to be filled at this point. Is Tui the answer? Or Hannahan?
In ST, the club decided Lopez could play plus defense at third - and Figgins could play plus at 2B -- and opinions ranged from strong skepticism to downright hatred of the concept. So far - it has worked pretty much just as the braintrust suggested it would (from an eyeballs on perspective). But, that doesn't change the fact that "at the moment", the club is only middle of the pack in DER.
But, how much does the club lose defensively with Hannahan or Tui?
How much does the club lose offensively with either switch?
Lopez has been a steady 100 OPS+ hitter - (leaning toward power more than OBP).
Tui is nice prospect with a couple of good Sprint Trainings - while Hannahan is effectively Ronny Cedeno with a little patience.
There is the 'possibility' that Tui could be a quick-blossoming bat. There's also the possibility that his 30/4 K/BB ratio in his 82 ABs is the alarm bell that even if Tui eventually makes it in the majors - his transition isn't going to be quick or easy.
Trading an .800 1B for a .900 1B doesn't gain ANYTHING AT ALL - if you're downgrading a .750 3B to a .650 3B *AND* degrading your defense (potentially at both positions).
THAT trade actually spends a bunch more money, sends a lot of specs away, and actually makes the team worse.
Yes - it is still early. It is certainly too early to make firm decisions on the 'weakest link' positions on the roster. But, at the moment, the weakest link appears to be DH. Is AG going to happily accept DHing?
Just as a hypothetical - what if Kotchman is still hitting .800 - .820 in July? Is AG still the proper target? And if Griffey is hitting .680? Or, if Bradley continues to struggle - (or, more likey - that he's on the DL)?
IMO, the borderline obsession on AG is predicated on the presumption that Kotchman is going to be a worthless pile of dung --- LUCKY to hit .750 -- coupled by the presumption that the other 8 positions are filled adequately.
To me - LF and DH remain the Achilles Heel for Seattle -- due to a combination of suspect production AND health limitations.
In the end - come trade time - I have confidence that Z will do what he has done from day one - make a move to IMPROVE the team -- not to get a big name to sell tickets, or appease the fan base. He'll either upgrade a position, stand pat - if the price is too high, or find a way to upgrade the farm.
But, exactly what the club needs come July is still very, very much in doubt.

I've got to admit that Lopez

I've got to admit that Lopez looks like hes going to be a plus defender at 3B. This caps one of my worst predictions ever.
Its strong evidence that physical tools trump experience when it comes to 2B and 3B.

So...I can add about +2.5 wins to my defensive projection.

I had Lopez as a -7 run third baseman and Figgins at +5...it's looking more like +7 and +10.
Kudos to the Ms for predicting this accurately and making a tough call decisively.

You don't understand my position on either player Dag

The argument above is yours, not mine.

:daps: Taro

Great post.
.............
Speaking as an infielder wannabe myself, playing around the diamond in slo-pitch :- ) I would say that the "light bulb" here is .... simply that infield is infield. The four guys are all just in a semicircle out there, stopping groundballs.
Ackley's another example. He was fine at first, was quick, so could play second. The differences between IF spots aren't as big as non-players make them.
The principle isn't an absolute, but it's one to be aware of. Some guys can pick a hot-shot one hopper, and some can't.

And as you note Matt

It's going to pay off huge for them. What is the most anybody spent for a 2.5 win player this year? What did the Sox pay for Beltre?
The M's snagged cash on the barrelhead just by changing a lineup card. Strat-O player's dream.

c-points Jonezie

A lot closer to my reasoning that Dag had it, that's for sure.

Losing Lopez would create

an opportunity on the roster. An opportunity to improve or decline, depending on how the FO reacts to it..and of course depending on how the dice roll.
I think if Kotchman is .820ing or thereabouts come July, you've got a great opportunity to upgrade your DH production with virtually any bat available. None of our players aside from Guti are mortal locks for their respective positions due to irreplaceability. Ichiro is a very good COF and your leadoff guy, but even with him there's versatility.
The roster, as constructed, is perfectly primed to take advantage of whatEVER players come available. If it's a CIF, great! Kotchman's production can quite easily be upgraded, and it's not like Lopez is the second coming of (insert favorite 3B slugger here) at the plate. LF is fluid, 1B is fluid, DH is WIDE open and to a degree 2B and 3B are also fluid due to Figgin's impressive defensive McLemore-ness.
Those are positions which are traditionally easy to find average/above average hitters to play, and we're really not locked into anybody at those spots. If MB is .850'ing at the deadline, great! He's your 50/50 LF/DH. If Kotchman is .820'ing then you either have to include him in the trade for your big bopping 1B, or as you point out, figure a way to keep him on the club and in the order every day he's helping you.
Was hoping for another 'last gasp' from Jr., but looks like we already got that last year. As you say, DH and LF are problems. Not just concerns, but significant problems which need to be addressed. Just so happens there are options out there this year that would fit us nearly perfectly.