=== Statistically Scouted Speed Metric ===

So HQ's new measure took the best baseball events AFTER EXCLUDING SB attempts and successes, like this:

1. SB attempt rate
2. 3B / (2B+3B)
3. Runs Scored / Time On Base
4. R / RBI (actually R - HR / RBI - HR, but you get the point.  Bill woulda loved this one)
5. SB success rate
6. Hits / Soft & Medium Groundballs
7. 3B per ball in play
8. Body Mass Index (weight per inch of height; Gutierrez is low, Olivo high)

They had to exclude #1 and #5 because they're trying to predict potential stolen bases by guys who aren't yet stealing them.  Despite this, they came up with a composite formula that correlated with physical home-to-1B times at an impressive rate of R = 0.72.

..............

HQ settled on these components:

1. R - HR / RBI - HR
2. 3B / 2B + 3B
3. Soft + Med GB Hits / Soft + Med GB's
4. BMI

.................

Here are the correlation factors they wound up with:

• HQ's Scouted Speed, initial sample ... R = 0.72
• HQ's Scouted Speed, all season-pairs 2002-09 ... R = 0.75
• James' Speed Score ... R = 0.75.

This is the kind of the thing that continually boggles the objective observer about Bill James.  The guy had a #2 pencil and a stack of Sporting News archives.

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=== 2010 Roto 5x5 KillShots ===

For 2010, BaseballHQ crowed about five or six players who showed SB upside / downside that contradicted the expectations of the old SX stat.

Ichiro:  153 SPD in 2009 suggested he was as fast as ever ... SB's did bounce back from 26 to 42

Rafael Furcal:  low SX in 2009 but high SPD:  Stolen bases bounced back in 2010

Hunter Pence:  High SPD, low SX in 2009 ... delivered 18 SB's

............

Ian Kinsler:  100 SPD low for a guy with 30-SB hype.   Stolen bases tumbled to 15

Torii Hunter:  "82 SPD not fooled by inflated attempts" ... SB's dropped by half in 2010

Ryan Howard:  What say SSI draws the curtain here, in the interests of dignity

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=== So Why is HQ's Metric Better? ===

HQ managed to create a speed measure about as reliable as James' ... but it did so as applies to hidden speed.   Now we can tell which non-base stealers are fast.

Bravo!  You've got a really cool new stat, boys.  :daps:

So, what does this metric tell us about each the ten or twelve Mariners who interest us?

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Ichiro!

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