=== Batting Champ-San ===
You remember how Babe Ruth pointed at the bleachers in the World Series against the Cubbies... okay, you don't. But HQ's called shot for 2010 was --- > Ichiro.
After 2009, Ichiro was moving into his late 30's and his stolen bases had dropped to 26. His SX was down. An easy call. Forget about him as an elite SB threat, right?
SX said fuhgeddaboudit, but SPD still pegged Ichiro as one of the fastest players cruising around ML fields:
It's awesome that SPD reflected the fact that Ichiro actually was running very fast in 2009. SPD correlates much better with --- > Dr. D's eyes from the 300 level. Anything that Dr. D and HQ agree on has got to be Truth.......
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Unfortunately, 2010 detected (hee hee) an important dropoff in Ichiro's footspeed:
A 130 speed index hardly puts Ichiro into a shuttle crew with Jack Cust. ... Elvis Andrus and Denard Span are 120; Carl Crawford is 135.
Still, Ichiro used to be the fastest SPD player in baseball, by a long ways; for all intents and purposes, nobody else is over 150, and here's Ichiro near 200.
Ichiro's drop from 190 to 130 is paralleled by a drop in his EYE, that is, his BB per K:
The EYE ratio is a great way to discern micro-fine erosion of reflexes. A hitter has to start the bat earlier, and the BB's start declining.
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And Ichiro's Runs Created per 27 outs:
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The main reason for the decline in speed score is the fact that he scored 74 runs as part of the worst offense in the past three decades.
The speed hasn't declined, but the eye ratio decline correlates with a decline in O-Swing%. Of course Ichiro's eye was actually worse in '09 when he had one of his better seasons.
Its hard to say right now. '11 will answer a lot of questions.
HQ settled on these components:
R - HR / RBI - HR
3B / 2B + 3B
Soft + Med GB Hits / Soft + Med GB's
BMI
So they don't use runs scored per time on base. R / RBI effectively edits out the quality of the lineup around a player - much more so than with SX, anyway.
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Ichiro has lost a good step to my eye, which means he's running in a pack of the 10 fastest players in baseball. Could be wrong.
but the eye ratio decline correlates with a decline in O-Swing%. Of course Ichiro's eye was actually worse in '09 when he had one of his better seasons.
Hm. Interesting 'put...
It is a given that when Ichiro has been more aggressive, he has been a better hitter, that's for sure...
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Hadn't noticed that Ichiro is swinging at tons more pitches outside the strike zone, but he sure is. Not a good sign. ... would associate that with the need to start the bat earlier.
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Of course, the conversation is toward the question of whether Ichiro is going to be adding 55 runs a year, or 40-45, as he moves into his late 30's.
Wouldn't put it past him to invent a way to keep it at 50+.
His speed probably isn't as good as in his prime, but I think the drop-off is exaggerated due to the Rs total.
Ichiro's RBIs weren't far off career norms, but Rs waay off thanks to a joke of MOTO.
Ichiro actually posted his 2nd highest infield hit% behind his career high in 2009. :-)
He also had an above-average year in SBs. 3Bs were down in relation to 2Bs (the one speed factor that was down legitimately), but so were HRs.
Its hard to say. Ichiro's eye is now down two years in a row, but that didn't stop '09 from happening.
I'll be very interested in how '11 goes. How far can this guy extend his prime?