Precedents: Help a Brotha Out Here

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Watching Hisashi Iwakuma spin these maddening little Mini Quality Starts (5.1 IP, 2 ER) the last several times out, the obvious question was --- > IS THAT SUSTAINABLE?  Has anybody ever DONE this?

OK, here are the career leaderboards for slowest fastballs.  Well, since 2002, when they started keeping track of slow fastballs.  Sort the table by Pitch Type, then by FBv (fastball velocity), upside down.  It gives you all the guys who threw super slow.

Actually it turns out there WERE guys who threw 85 MPH or slower.  And for quite a while.  Remember, we want RIGHT hand pitchers, and preferably AL pitchers.  Names that jump out:  John Burkett for the Red Sox (well, sure), Greg Maddux at 84.7 MPH (for ten years?  Really?), Hideo Nomo and Kevin Appier grovelled a lot at the end of their careers ... these are all ex-stars whose reputations bought them a couple extra years after they were at Moyeresque velocity ranges.

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A guy like John Burkett pitched for several years -- in Fenway! -- primarily using his super slowball as a paintball.  He mixed in that big 12-6 curve (17%, one in 6 pitches) and a super dee dooper slow changeup (12%).  He kept his xFIP in the low 4's doing this.  The Seattle Mariners would sell you an All-Star Club pass for any starter keeping his xFIP in the low 4's.  Chase De Jong would sell you who knows what.

Nomo pitched a good 5 years with "fastballs" in the low 80's.  He bounced it off a splitfinger that he threw 35% of the time.  TJM or DaddyO could tell us more about how this worked.

Kevin Appier.  In the 1990's of course he was an All-Star Starter type of flamethrower; but from 2002-2004 he worked a mid 80's fastball against a big repertoire of five trick pitches in the 70's (making the fastball look longer).  Sometimes it worked and sometimes it didn't; there are a couple of 4.30 xFIP's in there, and one way north of 5.

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But wow.  The compelling pairing for Iwakuma is Greg Maddux.  From 2002-2004 Maddux went 16-6, 16-11, 16-11 for the Braves and then he tacked four MORE years on top of that.  All at 83, 84, 85 MPH.  It's interesting that he used mostly fastball-change, in Mark Melancon "tunnel" fashion.

Have always THOUGHT of Iwakuma as the "NPB Greg Maddux."  He's got that kind of command, and he's got command of his offspeed pitches.  They both are into Ultra King Felix Sequences (TM) albeit -8 MPH slower.

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I ain't saying that Iwakuma is going to run a 2+ ERA.  But with this new approach, he could compete.  90 pitches, 5.2 IP, 2 ER ... with this offense that would work.  Ya might need 8 relievers though ...

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YOUR TURN NOW

You've got the table of slowballers.  Jered Weaver figured something out too.  Jamie Moyer, Kenny Rogers and other lefties worked at 84, even Beuhrle at 81 MPH.  They throw pitches at 69 and then the fastball looks 90.  :- )  Fancy a comp for Iwakuma 2017?

Enjoy,

Dr D

Comments

1

Iwakuma is not allowed to face a hitter three times. Ever. Ever again.

He gets exactly 18 batters and then he hits the showers. If he does that, he can survive for a while.

2
Arne's picture

Isn't the problem, though, that Iwakuma was never as good as Maddux? I don't know precisely how good Kuma was in Japan, but for Maddux the trajectory was from all-time great down to a very solid starter. For Iwakuma in the U.S., it's from a high-level #2 starter down to what?

3

Paul Byrd was throwing 85 in 2002 with the Royals, and had a pretty similar pitch mix (FB 53%, SL 27%, CT 3%, CB 8%, CH 15% for Byrd - FB 43%, SL 20%, CT 6%, CB 7%, SF 16%).  He walked a fine line, with a home run rate at 1.3/9, usually staying just serviceable as a #4/5 guy.  I think that's about where Hisashi is now.

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