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The Mariners were 85-77 in 2009...that would be +8 over .500. :) But yes...this feels like the first team that legitimately can fight for a play-off spot since 2003. :)
Whoa! Have the M's Stopped Throwing Away Felix' Masterpieces?
4 reasons the M's might be better than we think
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So the Kansas City Royals had won +10 games IN. A. ROW. before they ran into the 250-HP woodchipper that is Safeco Field.* And then we demonstrated to The Resurrected John Lackey (TM) that his 2.50 ERA had been fake all along.
You watch the Mariners play, and they don't physically LOOK like they're on pace for 87-91 wins** and a playoff spot. No way no how.
But actually, the M's are +6 over .500 for the first time since their 116th win in 2001.*** And they're better than they look. And there is an argument to be made that they don't need to add anything that is actually available.
Four reasons the 2014 M's might BE good, although they don't LOOK that good:
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#1
Felix is beside himself. As other rich guys ::cough,verlander,peavy,ubaldo,jered,etc,cough:: wobble, Felix spirals off into his own lonely universe.
This blog doesn't exist to tell you everything you already know. So we won't bullet out Felix' greatness, and Felix' (unlikely) improvement.
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#2
The rest of the rotation is, if not kicking tail and taking names, at least not throwing away Felix' efforts.
See above. Second paragraph, last section.
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#2a
These two things have, very often, been a recipe for a world championship. Orel Hershiser in 1988 threw 50+ straight shutout innings, was supported by Tim Leary and Tim Belcher at 115 ERA+, and two or three guys about as good as Chris Young in an average year. Orel simply didn't have Joe Saunders, Aaron Harang, Brandon Maurer, and Jeremy Bonderman cancelling out his efforts.
Sweet Lou got Jose Rijo onto a 20-degree-downhill roll in 1990 with three average-solid SP's behind him. And a 95 offense. When they swept the Bash Brother A's, baseball's head imploded.
Kevin Brown's 1+ ERA in 1997; the Marlins' offense was 98, the rest of their rotation only decent and they didn't even have a bullpen. But! The rest of the Marlins did not throw away Brown's efforts. It was like a .500'ish team without Brown.
We could look up dozens of examples. Or you could. Probably Moe and TJM will ... out of their heads, rather than off baseball reference.
Oh! The 1995 M's, the first time they made the playoffs, they were like 27-3 in Unit games and below .500 otherwise. (Maybe I'm mixing that up with 1997, but the point is) I thoroughly enjoy such teams.
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#3
The M's did add somebody to Robinson Cano, that being Fernando Rodney. That allowed everybody else to click-ratchet down one tennis court and, slap me silly, the bullpen has five (5) guys outpitching Danny Farquhar. 116 wins, baby.
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#4
I don't remember the last time I looked at their lineup on b-ref.com and saw so few LOW numbers. Behind Cano and Seager, everybody else is at 85, 90, 95.
It doesn't look impressive. But go flick through 300 pages of b-ref.com playoff teams and see how many of them have one hitter and a bunch of 90's.
The Beane/McClendon 9-to-make-5 is, gentlemen, working.
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Bonus Round
If that's what the M's are, now ...
- A .500-ish (average-mediocre) team without Felix
- Then, Felix
- Felix is going to put his snake eyes on, July-Sept 2014, and show us just exactly what level he is at
Then I, for one, am going to wallow in the baseball summer. The fabric of baseball history is written on HOF starting pitchers. Or at least the 2nd Wild Card might be.
BABVA,
Dr D
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* Anibal Sanchez did clip them for a 2-1 result, the single game before they flew x-country to our house. But the Royals scored 69 runs and allowed 30 during that win streak, including 3 wins over the Tigers before Sanchez bailed them out.
** Mathematically, 87.2. But don't you think we should weight the recent trends a bit? Isn't that like a MGL thingie or something?
*** Asterisks on SSI usually mean "I know, I know, LrKrBoi29. It's not precisely accurate, but it is true." Or it means "of course I'm kidding." Or it means whatever I say, after being called on my baloney. Asterisks, those are 20 years' worth of LrKrBoi29-flinch talking, homies.
Comments
2
That's like 5 times in a row you've asterisked me, after I asterisked myself. I can't imagine ANYbody -- one person -- thought 2001 was the last time they were +6? The 2001 team remained good for a few seasons more.
Kicking the soccer ball further down the field -- at which you're one of the best -- is far more interesting than errata, don't you think?
Just thought I'd return volley, being as we're playing on the self-awareness court. :: daps ::
3
Doc, the best sentence in a sea of good sentences was this one: 'And there is an argument to be made that they don't need to add anything that is actually available".
Dead spot on! And it scares the heebie-jeebies out of me that Z will make and run with just that argument. That argument says that you just wait until Saunders is here and then Hart comes back and Smoak is decent against RHP and surely Ackley will heat up or we will just be smart enough to give Kelly a call or that Miller remains Ted Williams and Morrison Lou Gehrig........Well you get it.
But that argument forgets that just a bit ago we were reeling from the inability to plate runs and the ship was taking on water.
We're hot;: 16-8 hot. Only thrice have we given up more than 4 runs (5-6-5) in a game during that stretch. I don't know...but I'm willing to bet that that is unprecedented in Mariner history. Or close to, anyway. 57 runs (by my count) we've given up in 24 games. That's 2.37 runs a game. It isn't sustainable...even with Walker back. It just isn't. The '68 Cardinals (Gibson-Washburn-Hoerner) gave up 2.95 a game. The '68 Tigers (McLain-Lolich-Hitter) gave up 3.03. The '65 Dodgers (Koufax-Drysdale-Osteen_Perranoski-for goodness sake) gave up 3.21. All those teams were before the mound was lowered AND with the pitcher batting.
We've been riding a rocket of a pitching streak.....but it can't sustain itself at this rate.
Top it off with our own 12 and 8 run games, 20 in two. But remember, please, the 5 games before that were 1-1-7-2-2. OK, Morrison got hot. And Endy. I know.
But the real cool thing of this hot streak was to put us in a place to really get the scent of the WC. However, the teams we're competing against aren't going to sit pat. They will get a player or two. Bet on it. We have a farm full of marketable talent and I'm pretty low in trust factor that Hart and Smoak will be any better than Chavez or Willie Ballgame have been the last few days. Or Saunders better than this smoking Chavez.
Their last 7 games slash lines: Zunino .375-.412-.1.063 Cano .348-.423-.435 Morrison .348-.385-.739 Miller .400-.478-.530 Seager .292-.320-.542
Chavez .364-.364-.591
That's rootin' tootin' hittin'! But it isn't sustainable.
We've done something very exciting in that we've put our selves right smack dab in the middle of the picture: I'm not betting on Hart. I'm not betting that Chavez remains the new Ichiro. I'm not betting that Morrison remains Lou Gehrig. I'm not betting on Ackley ever again.
I'm getting Willingham or some such bat. Then we're near to critical mass.
Make it so, Z!
moe
4
For exactly the reasons you said...
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By the way, your recent swing analyses ... let's split this out.
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Was trying to have fun with the losing decade. I think we got to +20 in 2007, but it sure never felt that good. This team has a strange "good vibrations" feel around it.
The whole point was to agree with your spirit and call attention to the fact that we've had better records but never had them feel better. Perhaps that wasn't clear from the smiley face and the subsequent comment about having had few clubs you felt good about since 2003. That 2007 club was very...very frustrating and unsettling even when they were 72-52, for example. The 2009 club was playing from behind all year and never really had any long "rolls" except against the inferior NL. Did anyone really feel confident in the 2003 club? That was my point. This 2014 club is weird...but it somehow is inspiring some confidence.
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If I can remember how Windows 8 works on clipping pictures and finding them again.
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No one expects us to maintain a 5-2 win/loss ratio going forward like we have the last seven games, but the regulars in this lineup are not playing over their heads:
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OPS+
2014 / Lifetime / Over or under lifetime in 2014
Hart 85/ 115/ minus
Ackley 80 / 90/ minus
Smoak 84/ 95/ minus
Cano 137/ 126/ plus
Miller 73/ 94/ minus
Seager 128/ 114/ plus
Saunders 90/ 111/ plus
Morrison 100/ 106/ minus
Zunino and Jones, seriously, who knows?
If the pitching cools down some, I also see it as plausible the hitting can improve. We have 5 of the 8 regulars listed here who are under performing their career marks. Cano is over performing, and people are expecting more. Lloyd thinks Seager has another level in him. Anyone doubt that Saunders is pretty much at his expected level right now? I don't think people think he's playing over his head. Well, some are - but I find that overly pessimistic given his .785 OPS over the past 365 days (.741 currently). Zunino, everyone expects will get better as he sees more pitches. Jones is a wildcard here. I expect Ackley and Smoak to improve over their current marks (I also expect to have seen the last of Smoak, regular first baseman, but if not, it'll be because he's smoaking the ball, not because Lloyd has faith in him).
There's my argument for not needing to add anything. But...I think we need to, because September looks to be a killer. And we can add pieces before August, and expect us too. But I also expect this current team to score more runs in the meantime, and make up for regression in the pitching. I also expect Felix to continue to play at a HOF level. And remember, we have Cano.
8
Just thinking impressionistically and glancing at the daily box scores. We are finally starting to be a team with some balance. We've got a speedy guy. A batting champ (I still always do a double take seeing Cano's AVG in the box score). Seager is solid overall, and can turn an individual game around by himself. A catcher who can field, catch, and hit dingers. A Real MLB Closer (TM). A Felix Hernandez. And a Game 2 starter. A back of the rotation and rest of bullpen that doesn't set things on fire.
If the black holes get patched up in the lineup, we are a solid team, and built for playoff success w/ the #1/2 rotation.
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Just catching up on some of this stuff, but one team that seems similar to me and succeeds with it is the St. Louis Cardinals. We've already talked about some of the older White Rat teams buit even the current post-Pujuls squads don't overwhelm you with elite hitters. They're slightly above average around the diamond and always have new young arms to replace the old broken ones. It's just a constant quality in the pitching staff that makes them elite.