I've been back and forth on this Cruz thing for the past month. Obviously, Texas wouldn't go beyond 2 years, and ran with Choo instead. Meaning, there is no reason to go beyond 2 years at this point with Texas out of the picture. I even question the $14M/yr.
After analyzing his split numbers against AL West "Stadiums" and AL West teams, I've changed my stance and wouldn't mind adding his bat, since he had done well with 'most' AL West teams, and their stadiums (and not just at Arlington).
We pickup Tanaka, and somehow land a very awesome CFer (Gomez Anyone?) and our fWar would skyrocket, with the rest of our moves to the top AL team in 2014. Prospect Insider just posted the projected fWAR for 2014 on the Mariners...a GREAT read. And if you take the projected WAR of Tanaka and Gomez, and that puts Seattle's expected fWAR just right above the top AL Pitching team (BoSox) for 2014 and even the top Hitting/Defense team in 2014 by adding Gomez in CF. AND that's without adding Cruz!
Gomez is @ $7M and basically is a splitting image of Ellsbury, but with 22-24 consistent HR power, and $16m/yr cheaper!
My Dream Siginings/trades to wrap up on the best offseason Seattle has EVER had would be:
1. Sign Tanaka what whatever price they need to!
2. Sign Balfour
3. Resign Oliver Perez
4. Trade for Carlos Gomez to man CF for Seattle.
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Q. Is Cruz worth a draft pick, even if he plays for free?
A. There is such a thing as an MLB Top 100 Prospects list, on which Taijuan Walker and James Paxton reside.
There is another thing, the Amateur Draft list, on which Josh Fields resides. Those are two different things. The Draft List is a lesser thing.
Here are the last twenty years' worth of #20 overall picks:
| Year | Player | Remark |
| 2010 | Kolbrin Virtek | |
| 2009 | Chad Jenkins | |
| 2008 | Josh Fields | M's |
| 2007 | Chris Withrow | |
| 2006 | Chris Parmelee | |
| 2005 | Mark Pawalek | |
| 2004 | Trevor Plouffe | |
| 2003 | Chad Cordero | Three good RP seasons |
| 2002 | Denard Span | Quality regular |
| 2001 | Jeremy Sowers | |
| 2000 | Chris Bootcheck | |
| 1999 | Vince Faison | |
| 1998 | CC Sabathia | Now we're cookin with peanut oil |
| 1997 | Adam Kennedy | 18 WAR in 13 seasons |
| 1996 | Eric Milton | High ERAs every year. Did get some WAR |
| 1995 | David Yocum | |
| 1994 | Terrence Long | 5 WAR in career. Quintessential #20 pick |
| 1993 | Torii Hunter | 42 WAR. Nice! |
| 1992 | Benji Grigsby | |
| 1991 | Pokey Reese | 6.6 WAR in career |
Based on just these 20 players ... with a late 1st-round pick, you've got close to a 50% shot of getting somebody who will play for you, at least a few seasons. Dr. D does not worry much about these draftees, the Terrence Longs and Pokey Reeses, because there are other players behind them. I figure that there are 5-career-WAR outfielders, and #5 starters, in Tacoma at any given time.
Obviously you don't want to miss out on CC Sabathia or Torii Huter. A late 1st-rounder gives you about a 10%, 15% shot of finding a star. That's not to be minimized.
Of course if you sign a major league cleanup hitter, you have a 100% shot of finding a major league cleanup hitter. (Well, y'know.)
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Q. Would Nelson Cruz cost a #10-in-MLB prospect, like Price would ... er, that is, would he cost a #20 overall draft pick?
A. My understanding is that Robinson Cano cost them one pick already, and that Cruz would then cost the Mariners a 3rd-round draft pick. One of you 'xperts clear me up here.
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Q. Is Nelson Cruz a "major league cleanup hitter"?
A. Let's compare him to three superstars. He's not quite as good, but he sits at the same lunch table:
| Cleanup Hitter | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR/162 | RBI/162 | RC/27 | OPS+ |
| Nelson Cruz, life | .268 | .327 | .495 | 32 | 99 | 5.7 | 114 (discounted for Texas) |
| Jose Bautista, 2012-13 | .250 | .358 | .510 | 39 | 105 | 6.3 | 135 |
| Giancarlo Stanton,life | .265 | .354 | .535 | 39 | 97 | 6.7 | 138 |
| Evan Longoria, life | .275 | .357 | .512 | 33 | 111 | 6.3 | 136 |
In the batters' box, these guys are one notch better -- and that's part of the reason why Cruz' market is collapsing. 1) He's not quite Jose Bautista, and 2) his defense is a problem.
But he's in their peer group, which is why John Hart, Al Leiter, Mitch Williams, and everybody else inside baseball are giving you their perception. That the Mariners need Nelson Cruz, specifically, to go with Robinson Cano.
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Q. Does SSI read Nelson Cruz' defense as a problem?
A. A big problem. That's why I've got five strikeout pitchers in my rotation, if I've got a bunch of guys like Corey Hart and Nelson Cruz. Not a bunch of Joe Saunderses and Jeremy Bondermans.
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Q. Cruz or Morales?
A. Morales would cost the Mariners more in draft picks than Cruz would, since we would fail to get the supp pick that we get if Morales signs with anybody else. I think.
Cruz and Morales are the same value in the batter's box, except
- Cruz is a RH hitter, which is not the case with Cano, Seager, Saunders, Ackley, Miller, etc etc
- Cruz CAN play the field, which is good (if Morales were a bad OF, that would add value)
- Cruz's value is shifted to HR
- Cruz is notably faster on the bases (major difference in R scored, once on 1B)
Offensively, for this team, Cruz is clearly preferable to Morales.
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Q. Leaving us where?
A. The Mariners signalled high interest in Cruz. Dr. D agrees with this. The thing is, year 3 is a reach, and year 5 is a disaster.
Now the debate is about whether Nelson Cruz is worth 2 years' salary, and a comp pick?! Why would you even argue that one? It was one thing to be concerned about giving Cruz too many years; it's a different thing to turn up your nose at THIS bat, no matter price. That's nuts.
I thought youse guys wanted to address the question of lefthandedness. C'mon. :- )
As with Lloyd and Harry, every day with Dr. D is a no-brainer. He would love to see the lineup with Cano, Cruz, Hart, Seager and a number of young bats that are jelling together. Cruz at a discount, and a later "impulse" splurge on Tanaka, that's when we're talking about a 20-game plan.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
I'm assuming that the "rumor" about the M's nearing their salary cap is generally accurate....generally.
Gomez is spendy...nice...but spendy. But let's focus on Cruz: 2X$14M is in the ballpark...although his market may have crashed enough to see him get even less. Cruz in RF forces Hart to DH (which I like). Add Morrison and Smoak and you end up with a 4 to make 3 situation. No problem there. I'm not sure I want to see too many games with Cruz in RF and Morrison in LF, though. That's a Raul and Morse redux...or nearly. In 2011, when he last played more than 100 games in left field, Morrison was a -3.4 dWAR player. That's a negative three point four in LF. Raul was only -2.6 last year (OK, in 18 less LF games). But Morrison = Raul in LF. Let's be clear....Morrison and Cruz in the same OF is a VERY bad idea.
With Saunders in CF and Guti as a 4th OF you would have to have a full time LF, as well. Are you handing it to Ackley. But in that situation, you have 7 guys who are full time DH/OF/1B. Add two catchers and you have room for only 4 2B/3B/SS types.
Structured correctly, you could make such a roster work. Ackley/Saunders/Cruz+Guti is a decent OF. Miller, Cano, and Seager make 7. Two catchers = 9. Morrison, Smoak and Hart makes 12....and Bloomquist makes 13. No Franklin appears, however.
I'm not ready to abandon Franklin for Bloomie....or Ackley, BTW.
I might like it more if Franklin was in LF rather than Ackley. Lot's of conjecture involved there, however.
If we did that, would you trade Ackley for something else? Could you trade him for something else?
Minus something like that, I would approve, with one big reservation, the Cruz addition if it included a Morrison rollover into that something else. My reservation is this: Add Cruz and you don't get Tanaka or Maeda. I'll trust Z's word here.