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Sez Mojo,
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Gattis was a dude everybody liked, including and especially the Mariners. It seems they went with Seth Smith + pardner instead. Smith was also a dude everybody liked, including and especially the Mariners.
Just in terms of value to the club, and just at a 10-second glance, I'll compare the Astros prospects to Brandon Maurer, Patrick Kivlehan, and a throwin -- two players in the org's top ten, one being a talented swing man with a shot at the rotation, and the other a mysterious-but-exciting hitter. G-Money (and youse mooks) can correct me later.
(Edit to add, G-Money went with Elias, Austin Wilson and Victor Sanchez "to top that deal." Whew. No way, Jose'.)
I'd love to have Gattis, but ....
- He is age 28
- He has not yet flourished under the bright lights of booked-up enemy pitching
- His contact rate is 70, 75%
- Shandler projects him to a mere 4.8 runs per 27
- Don't think the M's were going to use him as a catcher
So I wouldn't sell Gattis as a guarantee to perform like Nelson Cruz. Gattis has what, a solid 40%, 50% chance of becoming Cruz? Gattis is cool, but Seth Smith slants the energy towards OBP and cost only one good player rather than two.
Or not :- )
.......
Jack Zduriencik has been making noises about Jesus Montero, like the bench/DH/backup 1B role is Montero's job to lose in March.
Personally, I'm right with Jay-Z on this one. If you truly believed that he had Albert Pujols-type hitting ability, then you give yourself every conceivable chance to cash in on that. Montero is worth two extra opportunities, over what Justin Smoak got.
Montero has been a mess since coming to Seattle, no doubts there. He hasn't even been swinging the bat well -- the last two years, even his power is gone. He swings the bat statically and generates little acceleration. But when he first came up with NYY, he was a legit .300 hitter with Cruz-like power:
That's Ichiro-like contact results, and Gattis- / Cruz-like oomph behind the swing. That's what Zduriencik saw. There are maybe 5 players in the big leagues even capable of that intersection of AVG and PWR.
And the sabermetrics were there: Montero was a legit cleanup hitter in AAA at age 20 -- while playing catcher. In terms of his track record, you might as well talk about a teenager who had already topped out in the minor leagues.
..........
The problem with Montero always seems to have been, that he was intolerable in the clubhouse, a joke both to management and to the players around him. As we all know, Montero has spent 90% of his chances. This is probably the last one. While we are putting things in scale :- ) Jesus Montero has been an epic Bad Actor by any standards, every whit as much of a problem as (say) Delmon Young was. It ain't just our imagination. At this point, people in other cities have dismissed him too.
So! He lost the 30+ lbs. and his attitude IS better. Does Dr. D give him another shot in 2015? Certainly. One mo', amig-O.
Especially if the Gattis alternative has a price tag attached, of two valuable org players.
Montero has started his career with a .318 AVG vs. lefties and a .459 SLG, in Safeco. He already is a vast improvement over the 2014 Mariners' DH's and early 1B's. We don't know what he might be, but what he has been, is a guy who can help vs LHP's.
Not saying that Montero is the cure to all the M's ills. :- ) But given that they've brought in Cruz and Seth Smith, it's worth a simoleon.
Cheers,
Dr D
