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It Was Time

In 2013, Eric Wedge's bosses have had him on a wait-and-see type of probation.  The same thing was true of Jack Zduriencik.

Zduriencik's one-year extension is nominal, a contract worth little more than that of a ML-minimum rookie, a contract that the club can and will write off at any time.  Zduriencik is still on probation, and under those circumstances he chose to go another year.  Zduriencik has the luxury of not caring whether players like him.

Wedge was also offered a 1-year deal going into 2013.  He judged that such a situation would cut him off at the knees with his players.  

As 2013 has progressed, Wedge's results in the W/L column have been poor.  His relationship with the front office has gotten more and more cordial and distant.  This is natural and appropriate.

Wedge began to feel like he was twisting in the wind.  That wasn't helped by the fact that the ballclub responded very poorly to his return off sick leave.  In retrospect, the "writing on the wall" scenario was inevitable.

There is a subtle "momentum game" that goes on between any manager and his employees.  As long as the manager Looks Like A Winner, then the complainers look like isolated strays and they are the ones to get the ax.  Like Casey Stengel (?) said, "The secret to managing is keeping the 5 guys who hate you, away from the 5 who are undecided."  That's actually quite true.  Wedge, in 2014, wasn't going to be able to do that!

He bailed before it got to that point, and he was wise to do so.

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What is interesting is that the front office treated him with such respect, given the circumstances. It's not often that an MLB manager nicely and politely says, "Well, it looks like it's probably time for me to go."  

Zduriencik and Armstrong responded, nicely, "Well, you might be right.  Looks like that's where we're coming to on this thing."

Wedge is leaving not at his volition, not at Jack Zduriencik's volition, and not at Chuck Armstrong's volition.  He is leaving at the volition of the W/L column.  

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Corporate Hiring Do's and Don'ts

This isn't a debate issue.  I'ts not about whether you like Wedge or don't.  It's a simple textbook case of --- > it's time to give the org to another executive.  By any classic standards you want to set for that, we've hit them.

It's kind of like whichever company made the last run of landline telephones.  You look around, and the factory's dead, and the air is stale, and you and your partner sort of smile and dap knuckles.  "Well, it was cool while it lasted.  Have a good life."  You take a look back, flip the light switch off, and go on to the next thing.

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If your boss's manager does not respect him, you probably don't either.  On the other hand, if your boss's manager stands behind his chair, glaring at you, enforcing your boss's decisions, you shut up and comply.

It's the same at Boeing, Nintendo, and with the Mariners.  It is in Zduriencik's hands to enforce Wedge in the clubhouse.  He's not going to do that.  That point came with Wakamatsu, also.

If you're Zduriencik, you commit to Wedge for 3 more years based on  ... what?  That if Taijuan and K-Pax make the 2014 All-Star team, that Wedge can go along for the ride as well as anybody else?

$1 million/year executives, like Wedge, aren't paid to fail and then "go along for the ride" while their bosses improve things for them.  If you're making $1M per year, you're doing it because you impose prosperity where almost everybody else would fail.

Lou Piniella arrived in Seattle and imposed his will, turning a rinky-dink organization into one that battled for the playoffs.  He imposed prosperity where almost everybody else failed.  Billy Martin used to do that.  Wherever Pat Gillick goes, his organizations start succeeding.

Is that what Wedge did?  No?  Then why pay him a million a year?

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143 Astronauts In the World, Dept.

I respect Eric Wedge.

In some other circumstance, he might very well perform like a $1M executive.  He might win where most others would lose.  That's very possible.  Many good ML managers have hit the right set of conditions, the perfect storm, and led a team to victory.

He was absolutely crucified in the blogs for not knowing what WAR is, but the blogs were wrong about that.  Wedge has been in the computer age at least since the Shapiro era in Cleveland.  

(If you just joined us, Mark Shapiro might have been the original data-GM of his type, evolving Sandy Alderson's leadership role in that.  Of course Shapiro was in Wedge's ear on sabermetrics; Wedge spent 7 years as manager of the leading saber organization in baseball.)

He made one offhand comment about --- > taking the fight to the pitcher, and the media (as the media does) turned one offhand into a mercilessly-demagogued sound byte that was completely unfair and inaccurate.

It's hopelessly naive to imagine that any of the 30 ML managers are anything other than voracious data consumers.  Eric Wedge, like Lou Piniella, knows exactly what his leadoff hitter's OOZ% and SwStr% are -- because if anything is out of alignment in the stats, the team sabermetricians come and tell him about it.  

Carlos Triunfel had a ridiculous 54.7% fishing rate during his cup of coffee here.  You think Wedge, or any manager, doesn't know that?

I don't remember seeing anything weird in the Fangraphs statistics that the Mariners didn't very quickly respond to.  You think, these days, that a pitcher is going to fan 10 men, walk 13 in his first month, and stay on the roster?

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Managers go beyond the statistics and incorporate their knowledge of human variables -- who is hung over that day, whose eyes look scared, who grimaces when they're hitting with runners on base.  "You use the numbers, but other things go in - how a guy is swinging the bat," Lou said.

Some sabermetricians deeply resent this aspect of the game, because they can't lead the discussion on it, because it exposes the fact that they don't have 995 out of 1,000 light bulbs on.  

The fact is, all 30 field managers blend "human element" concerns with data consumption, using INTUITION to project the next Michael Saunders plateau leap.  Whoever manages the Mariners next -- WHOEVER, including Joe Girardi if he gets here -- will use plenty of intuition in deciding between James Paxton and Erasmo Ramirez.

Eric Wedge (an ex-catcher) isn't as different from Bob Melvin (an ex-catcher) as blogs would like to believe, and he is one of VERY few people on the planet who can manage a baseball team effectively.

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Dustin Ackley, and Justin Smoak, and Jesus Montero, and several other hitters, developed VERY badly once they got to Safeco.

Kyle Seager and Brad Miller did not.  Mike Zunino looks fine.  Whose fault is it, that the blue-chippers did not blossom under Eric Wedge?  I don't know.  Maybe you do?  Tell me.

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Next Up, 2014

It says here that the Mariners will NOT have an impossible time finding somebody to accept $1M per season to manage them.  Sure, there are undesirable aspects to the 2014 Mariner job.  There are desirable ones, also.  

Corporate recruiting is about playing up the possibilities, and it is about giving a rich executive what he really wants, that he doesn't have where he is now.  For Joe Girardi, that would probably be non-interference.  And security and admiration and power.  You can guarantee the man 5 years.

These guys get resumes from lawyers and politicians just to intern for them.  If you had any idea, the way Lincoln and Armstrong and Zduriencik get begged for jobs, and by whom.... everybody wants to be part of an ML org.  If you like being a fan, how much would you like being part of the team?

This thought being floated, "Nobody would ever step into such a mess," that's mostly just sour grapes that Armstrong and Zduriencik weren't fired.  The real Fortune 500 world is not so simplistic.

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Joe Girardi his ownself might consider the Mariners, if he is thigh-deep in Yankee baloney.  Sometimes you leave, just to leave.  And if he's given a 5-year deal, his authority coming in, would transcend Zduriencik's.  In some situations, it's the GM who has to get along with the manager, not vice versa.

Perhaps the Mariners will hire a no-name.  If they do, it will be because Lincoln and Armstrong didn't want to lower themselves to recruiting, but insisted on a hire that "appreciates the opportunity."

Some execs don't like to share power, and some execs don't like to ask nicely.  With a Girardi type, you'd have to do both.  With Pat Gillick, they did prove that they were capable.  Let's hope.

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Quarterly Report:  On Time, On Budget, Zero Defects

I know nobody asked me, but if anybody did, I'm 100% in favor of judging rich executives by their results.  Eric Wedge's results weren't there.  It doesn't make him a bad executive.  It makes him an executive looking for his next job.  And that's where he should be, out looking for his next job.

For you and me as Mariner fans, it is an exciting opportunity.  As Bill James pointed out, the next manager in sees all of the weaknesses that were invisible to the guy leaving.

Taijuan and K-Pax and free agent money and a new manager?  I'm psyched up.

My $0.02,

Jeff