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Justin, an old homie from the 1995-1997 STATS AOL board days, says that he ran into a Mariner scout who was checking out Curtis Granderson.

Justin's always had a near-supernatural feel for guessing what MLB orgs are going to do.  On this one he not only liked the vibe he got from the scout, but also pointed out that Granderson is a "good actor," well-spoken and intelligent ... not only somebody you don't have to worry about appearing on the police blotter, but also a player whose postgame interviews the Mariners would be proud of.  Dr. D agrees that Granderson is precisely the kind of free agent the M's would love to sign.

BAT571 noted that MLBTradeRumors has a Granderson profile up.  They think that his market value will be discounted to 3/$45MM, and that any team willing to go to 4/$56MM would easily nab him.

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Curtis Granderson & Nick Swisher - Similarities

These two outfielders are exactly the same baseball age, 33 going into next season.  That's the item you start with, since you're offering mega-millions to old men.

They're similar in lots of other ways, too -- power, walks, and guess whose career AVG is actually higher.  It's .255 for Swisher, .261 for Granderson.  Both profile as lukewarm-ish MOTO hitters who are pitch stalkers.  

Granderson's career OPS+ is 117, and Swisher's 118 ... the Boston Red Sox aren't really looking for 117's in their three slot, you feel me?  Don't make these two hitters out to be Prince Fielder or anything, but both are good hitters.  You'd want them 5 or 6 in a pennant-winning lineup.

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Of course, after they hit the ball they have to exit the batter's box.  That's an important part of a hitter's game:  not stolen bases, as such, but the % of times they score once they are on base.

Granderson has speed, scoring 107 runs per 162 compared to Swisher's 91.  (The teams they've played for factor in, sure, but you know and I know that once the two players are on first base, it is easier to bring Granderson around.)

Granderson, of course, plays center field, which is such an advantage over Swisher that it almost disqualifies him from the comparison.  But we'll discuss whether Granderson actually should continue in CF...

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Being that Big Blog called for a 7-year, $105MM deal on Swisher going into the 2013 season, you would think that a 4/$56MM deal for Granderson went into the NO BRAINER category for them.

But ... no-brainer in the good sense?  Or no-brainer in the Harry and Lloyd sense?  If we used the Fangraphs WAR paradigm here, it would a no-brainer in the good sense:

If you liked the idea of Swisher in RF through age 38, you'll love the idea of Granderson in CF through age 35 or 36.

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He Stops Short, Dept.

Recall that the 7/$105MM offer to Swisher was put forward as the Mariners' best option for 2013, the ideal offseason (in a pragmatic world).  What would that make a 4/$56MM deal for Granderson?  We led off with this Swisher vs Granderson paradigm so that --- > y'all could quickly get a feel for how compelling this scenario could be.

By this logic -- the logic of "Big Blog pre-2013 Blueprint" -- you've got a real simple offseason here.  

• Blow every other MLB team out of the water on the Granderson bidding, say, with a 5/$80MM contract if necessary
• Keep all your prospects!
• Roll out that fearsome 4-man rotation, with Taijuan and Paxton (YES, Z would do this)
• Stick Granderson (and one other "WAR-efficient" signing) into the middle of your order, and
• Fill a big warehouse with ticker tape in preparation for the festivities

Does SSI see any issues with this, or does it think this would work?

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