… and some American Competition
Mousing around the champs' evaluations

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Here is Ron Shandler's rotisserie valuation of the big SP targets left.  We use these because they are (1) objective, and (2) one place where you can count on RISK being very carefully factored in to the whole package.

In fact these values are taken from Ron's "Portfolio 3 Plan," which is an entire theory of Rotisserie based on controlling downside and risk.

This list isn't complete, but samples the terrain so you can get a feel.  Bear in mind that in classic roto, batters are valued considerably more highly than pitchers are.  There are good reasons for that, and it's a good reason for you to rejoice at the signing of Robinson Cano (valued at $35 by Ron this year).

Thusly:

Pitcher Roto $ Remark
Cliff Lee 25  
Verlander 25  
Price 22 see below
Felix 21  
(Grant Balfour) 19 NO reliever gets $19 in Portfolio 3
Iwakuma 18 skyyyyyyy - high, babe
Shields 18  
Kuroda 13  
Samardzija 12  
Tanaka 12 Heh :- )  SSI disagrees, but OK.  $20 next year
Garza 12  
Fister  11  
Jimenez 10  
E. Santana 9  

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Yoo-Hoo Shower, Takeaway

At a glance, flipping through Forecaster 2014, the two highest-paid players I see are Mike Trout at $41 and Robinson Cano at $35.

Cano is a true crown jewel.  In pure roto terms, Cano is worth far more than Felix Hernandez.

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David Price, Takeaway

We give you the above chart, to make our point on David Price.  Price isn't one or two notches better than (say) Ubaldo Jimenez; he's worth two Ubaldo Jimenezes.  I'll take [Price and Erasmo] over [Matt Garza and Ervin Santana].  In part because Erasmo is fungible, of course.

Price took the fabled Plateau Leap last year, simply stopped walking batters in Cliff Lee style, and he is positioned to take over the league the same way that Cliff Lee did.

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Stars & Scrubs, Takeaway

People ask, "do you want Tanaka, or do you want Jimenez and a reliever."  You can always replace the 2nd player in that Civics equation.  As in trades, never give up the best player in the deal.  GET the best player, and then get to work on finding that 2nd player elsewhere.

Generally speaking, SSI is very lukewarm about Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez and (to some degree) Jeff Samardzija.  Ervin Santana, it's cool towards.  They're nominally TOR starters, but they all come with worries, and how assured are we that they wouldn't be #5 starters in this rotation?  

Garza, Jimenez and Samardjiza are worth having, but do you want to spend $120M to get one?  They are nowhere near the Price/Tanaka strat-O-sphere in value.  Stars & Scrubs theory has you focusing on the true aircraft carriers -- the Cabrera, Verlander, Fielder type franchise cores.

Price and Tanaka might cost you something painful.  But the key is, make sure you're happy with what you get.

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Grant Balfour, Takeaway

... here, lemme split this out.

Enjoy,

Dr D

 

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