.

Wm. F. Buckley DISCLAIMERS, CAVEATS and QUID PRO QUO's Dept.

When it comes to Opening Day rosters, it's totally possible for a front office to --- lean left and then --- > zig hard right on cutdown day.  Happens all the time.  They get into the conference room and it gets down to brass tacks and they Just. Change. Their. Minds.

That, and on a much more unlikely front, it could also occur that Dr. D is wrong about his guesses analyses of the situation.  Happens with very extreme rarity, but you see the section header.

.

PUTTING YOUR OPPONENT ON A HAND, Dept.

Last week, Dr. D slid the chances of a Nate Karns RP scenario from 20% to 40%.  This morning, he gets to gingerly slide it to 52%.  :: crowd throws caps in air like Army scored on Navy ::

Servais tipped his pitch when he commented that he'd like to see Paxton go five innings on Tuesday.  This reads to Dr. D like "We just wanna see Paxton get his shtick together.  Then we can go to war and get off to the start this administration needs."

Also, the M's have apparently pencilled in Cishek-Benoit-Zych --- Peralta!? -- and one more guy.  The only comp left for Nate Karns would be Mayckol Guaipe, who can pitch major league baseball, and Donn Roach, who cannot.  You've only got to rule out Coleman and Parker to put DiPoto on two pair in this 7-stud game.

....

DONN ROACH - used to fan 9 guys in the minors and used to pitch in DiPoto's "total organization."  However, he only fans 5 guys even in the minors any more, and you don't even want to check his major league results.  He throws an 88 (minus) fastball and a slow curve.  That, gentle reader, is not a pitcher you want to wave out of the bullpen when you could be waving for Nate Karns.

MAYCKOL GUAIPE - perfectly competent dude.  He's the main reason right now the SSI odds for Paxton + Karns say 52% as opposed to 82%.  "Putting DiPoto on a hand" we assume that he would PREFER Paxton SP5 and Karns RP if those two don't botch it.  But it's hair-fine as to whether, over the next 10 days, Paxton and Karns will actually go out and remind everybody why they're young stars.  

Karns SP5 and Guaipe RP is a very do-able fallback position.  Mayckol Guaipe is the one ML righty here who isn't a "reach."  So, take a moment and be glad about 'im.

COLEMAN AND PARKER - various permutations off Dr. D's guessing wit and wisdom remain possible.

....

FURBUSH GETS BACK, therefore MONTGOMERY vs NUNO - did not realize that Vidal Nuno has a AAA option left.  Still, of the two of them:  Nuno gives you strike one.  The tradeoff is whether you want to clench your eyes shut, white-knuckle, and do the "responsible" thing long term.  Responsible being to protect your talent pyramid for the April 1-30, 2016 time period, or whether you want a solid feeling when you make your LHRP2 pitching changes.

Think you could do the responsible, long-term thing (keep Montgomery on the 25-man) and then watch him blow two games in April?

.

BACKUP CATCHER

Dr. D has a bit of "full disclosure" at his second site, D-O-V Mainframe.

.

SARDINAS

Turns out to be a real nice move by DiPoto.  :: golfclap ::  

O'Malley is a little cooler than we all thought he'd be, but (thankfully) the org "layering" has indeed made him a nonissue.  Or so it says here.  And that's fine.  Your talent pyramid SHOULD reach the point at which Willie Bloomquist is out of a job.

Dr. D says that now, but at 11:58 pm on Cutdown Day, they could compulsively decide on the (little extra bit of) outfield leather.  Like the Snickers bar at the cash register.  I'd rather give King Leonydas his two-month chance and then crisply swap in Boog Powell.  Skip the dithering and hemming and hawing you get from Swiss Army Knives that can't really cut an overripe tomato.

.

DAE-HO LEE vs MONTERO vs THE KID WHO'S BETTER THAN MONTERO

Anything other than Dae-Ho Lee and SSI will throw a toddler tantrum.  The floor is, that he can hit; we have verified that through visual reconaissance, outside breaking pitches hammered into CF and so forth.  The ceiling is ... for all we know, he could be Jose Abreu.  This one is a no-brainer.

Bring it on,

Jeff