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Mojo had alerted us to the concept of Shock Therapy for rodents and orcs.  Got to put the fear of ORKin into the Orcs first, counsels he.  Then the battle goes much more smoothly.

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WHIPSAW

First batter up Monday, the KKKKKarnivore "established" his curve :- ) by using it 4 of the 5 pitches to Billy Burns.  Hey!  Mail in and let us know the next time you see that.  Nate Karns is a pitcher you are not used to seeing.  And by "you" we are talking to the good amigos in the broadcast booth and newspaper columns ...

Karns is throwing 45% fastballs, 40% curves and 15% changeups this year.  As Blowers pointed out, he throws these 40% curves at any time in the count - behind, ahead, even.  Most pitchers throw 5% or 10% curves when behind, and indulge 25% curves when 1-and-2.  The reason being that they can't throw it for a strike.  Nate Karns can.  Get that straight.

Last year, only about ten starters threw their curves even 20% of the time, and only one threw 30% - Jose Quintana, at 30.8%.  Karns and Rich Hill and Drew Pomeranz are at 40% this year; Hill is a special case, being a Sid Fernandez lefty.  Oh by the way, Hill and Pomeranz are over 11 strikeouts per game.  A pitcher with a wipeout curve can be a very pleasant thing.

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For the first four innings Monday, Karns ravaged the Orcs' nest with a heavy acid 2.0 PH mixture of fastballs and curve balls.  His fastball didn't have quite as much life as the start previous, but he certainly took control of the strike zone (25 of 34 fastballs for strikes).  The broadcast, this time around, was mercifully free of pleads for his changeup.  Amigos must frequent the Mainframe, huh ...

Long about the 4th inning, the Orcs were getting "in between" on the yakker and fastball.  With Josh Reddick laser-focused on those two pitches, Karns then wheeled the changeup out of dry dock and Reddick put one whale of a garbage swing on the pitch:

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Chew on THIS, feeb

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If I were Nate Karns, this would be precisely the strategy I would use as my default template.  (Meaning, unless the opposing lineup offered a very good reason for deviating.)  I would throw the #2 and #1 for about 12, 14 hitters, getting my feel for both pitches.  Until confusion was well established - and then I'd use the change to create a Confusion Tipping Point and cruise through the 7th.

Karns did accomplish this, but ...

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MISTAKE AVOIDANCE

It's a cliche in baseball that if a batter hits a curve hard, then the pitcher must have "hung" it -- it didn't spin as much, its break was early, and it was up in the zone.  Monday, this actually was the case -- the two HR's to Davis were hanging curves.

Here's the thing.  It is not given to mortal man to throw 50 consecutive perfect curve balls.  Some percentage of them are going to break less, or miss their spots.  With me so far?

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The illusion is that every time a pitcher makes a mistake, MLB(TM) batters will launch it over the fence.  That's not true.  For example, in Miley's last start we documented 12-15 bad mistakes he made with his changeup alone.  It's just that none of them got hit.  Okey doke?

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The real situation is this:  when a pitcher hangs a curve, or misses with a fastball out-and-over, or centers a changeup --- > that's not 3 runs automatically to the scoreboard. It is analogous to giving an NBA shooter a wide-open three with no hand in his face.

In other words, pitchers make mistakes -- maybe two, three an inning -- and when he does, you are left hoping that the spot-up shooter misses it.  Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't.

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Those are the facts.  My opinion is this:  that Nate Karns has made few mistakes in 2016 but that those mistakes have been hit a high percentage of the time -- by luck.  Or to put it in sabermetric terms, his HR/fly percentage is 20.8%.  The highest HR/f rate over the last three years is CC Sabathia, at 15%; that's the max you can deserve.  And Karns has not deserved any blinkin' max on homers.

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DR's PROGNOSIS

That said, Karns isn't going to be a pitcher who runs a 2.50 ERA.  It says here he will run a 3.50 ERA, but also that he could go 15-10 very consistently.  The archetype is Adam Wainwright, who won 92 games in the five years between 2009 and 2014.

Flavor text :- ) ... I always fancied a 15-10, 3.50 ERA pitcher as exactly the kind of SP who owns the #3 slot for a 100-game winner.  I thought of this as Dan Petry for the 1984 Tigers who started 35-5 or so and won 104 games, though looking back on it maybe Petry was their #2.  Mike Moore for the 1989 A's.  Kevin Appier for the 1982 Angels.  That kind of thing -- an above-average but not great pitcher who rips off 15 wins behind the two aces.  Aaron Sele behind Moyer and Garcia for the 116-win gin rummy.

But hey.  You go 15-10, 3.50 in the FIVE slot for a ballclub, your club is probably going to be okay.

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STAT DU JOUR

Karns' career strikeouts have fallen below his innings pitched, 198 to 199.1.  Dr. D finds this extremely annoying.

On the broadcast, our two good amigos were puzzled to find that Karns is the only pitcher ever to fan 5+ men in each of his first 5 Mariner starts.  Not the Unit, not Freddy Garcia who was awesome as a rookie, not Mark Langston who led the league in K's as a rookie.  Karns was cruising in the 6th and Sims was puzzled.  "If this keeps up, he's going to have one of the better curve balls in the league?" he asked Blowers, question mark.

Dr. D is not trying to bust anybody's chops here.  But it is interesting that perception can still lag reality, even with the most in-tune experts.  Karns has been really good for some time now.  We felt odd making him a Best Bet at all, but ... ah, well.  It's a living.  :- )

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K-PAX

Another guy whose perception is lagging reality; he's got 30 starts in the big leagues.  His career ERA of 3.16 would have been #5 in the American League last year.  The point is, it's not like we are talking about Edwin Diaz here.

The only question is whether he can execute his pitches.  If you told me that tomorrow, James Paxton was going to be able to throw his curve ball for a strike on a 3-2 count?  Then tomorrow, I would start him in the playoffs ahead of any Mariner pitcher, with the possible exception of Felix.

Karns and 'Kuma are top starters now, but they ain't as good as Paxton is.  

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Enjoy,

Jeff