Well...I recently had an argument that pertains with my older brother. He listens to a lot of science podcasts and his argument was basically that lack of evidence for is not evidence against. Except that's not how he worded it, that's just the closest I could come to an agreement with what he said. He actually said that you can't disprove anything because lack of evidence is not proof. That may actually be the scientific belief, I don't know. And in this case there is evidence against.
With Wells, there's also beanings, dizziness, vision problems and other "vertigo like" symptoms, followed by Lasik being done this offseason.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think we know all that much about long term concussion effects. For some people, including his 11 and 12 manager, Jason Bays concussion sustained running into the wall July 23, 2010 has been considered a possible reason for his struggles. Can we disprove that? Concussion has never been the prognosis reported on Wells, but "vertigo like symptoms"sounds like a possible concussion to me. Especially when the onset of symptoms followed a beaning.
The source for Terry Collins' comments also has this:
" Dr. Michael Collins, the director of the sports medicine concussion program at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, said the longest recoveries involved athletes with vestibular (a sensory system that contributes to balance) and vision issues. Often, these are baseball and hockey players."
Balance and vision issues, eh? That's exactly what "vertigo like symptoms"was referring to.
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=== Institutions of Higher Thought, Dept. ===
Thomas Sowell once lectured at an elite American university, and during the lecture, offered to exchange ideas on -- er, debate -- the issue of gun control. A student quoted a statistic at him and pronounced it obvious that solutions X, Y, and Z should be implemented.
Sowell replied calmly, "Perhaps that's accurate. However: if you were wrong, how would you know?"
According to Sowell, not one student in the class understood the question.
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In science, experimentation is usually done with the idea of disproving a hypothesis.
Let's say I am a leading scientist in 1858 -- ca. U.S. Civil War -- and I believe in spontaneous generation. Maggots are born in dead flesh, fleas in dust, because life spontaneously arises from inanimate matter. I believe that, fine. I should believe it. It's the hypothesis that best fits the facts at hand.
Let's say I am Louis Pasteur in 1859, and I want to know whether I'm right. My experiment is designed to DISPROVE what I ALREADY BELIEVE: I boil meat broth in a goose-necked tube, so that air can get in and out but particles cannot fall into the broth. If I am WRONG about spontaneous generation, then --- > no new life will form in the broth.
I expect life to form. But if I'm wrong, if my belief system is fatally flawed, I have a way to know. It's like a jake brake on a semi-trailer going down a mountain: if my wheel brakes are fried, there's a backup system and I'll survive.
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This fundamental open-mindedness is the first prerequisite in any search for truth. Most college students, in my experience, find it to be an irritation. We don't investigate; we advocate.
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=== Casper Wells ===
About 85%, 90% of the time I agree with Geoff Baker; about 10%, 15% of the time I don't. This particular article is one in which Baker's understanding of baseball is SO far in advance of everybody else's, that it will appear silly to most other local websites.
Yes, I know how absurd that last sentence will seem to some people. Nevertheless, that sentence is accurate.
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HYPOTHESIS ONE: Casper Wells would probably be a minor star in the American League, at least as valuable as (say) Michael Morse, if some team would just give Wells the chance to take 550 PA's per season.
HYPOTHESIS TWO: Wells is talented, but has fatal flaws to his game that prevent his surviving "overexposure" to the harsh, glaring lights of American League scouting reports.
I don't care which of those two theories you prefer. I care whether you can answer this question: if you were wrong, how would you know?
NEXT
Comments
Casper Wells had a career .286/.341/.490 line with the Tigers even though he was in the middle of a sophomore slump when we got him. I don't know that he ever recovers, but he was hitting in MLB and has a solid Mil line of .251/.345/.493/.838. That's not exactly all star level, but he doesn't have to be. Everybody calls it the "Furbush-Fister trade" anyway, for obvious humor effect.
Wells isn't exactly Herb Score in the on field tragedy department, but if his career never really takes off I'll blame it on the ball that hit his face.