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1. The Mariners didn't want Casper Wells to fail. They traded Doug Fister for him.
They STILL don't want Casper Wells to fail. Doug Fister is an ongoing embarrassment to them, and Wells' failure is a daily inflammation of that wound. The Mariners would LOVE to get a contribution from Casper Wells.
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2. The Mariners lean toward hypothesis two, the one that posits Wells to be a part-time player with fatal flaws (mental, physical or relating to his strike zone).
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3. The Mariners tried to prove themselves wrong: from June 28, 2012, through August 7, 2012, the Mariners gave Casper Wells 34 consecutive starts. If they were wrong, they had a way to know: Wells would sustain his performance.
In the Greek language, the word for "sincere" is helio-krinos, "sun-judged." Aristotle would judge a bolt of silk by holding it up to the sun. When a batter takes his place in an American League lineup, those scouting reports are thorough, baby, and those pitchers can execute against any weaknesses a batter has.
I don't know why sabermetricians dislike so much the idea that a part-time batter could have a tougher time sustaining his performance in full-time play. But they do dislike this idea. Perhaps because it can't be measured with their tools.
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4. You can come up with 9,000 quibbles about this "scientific experiment." (Don't forget the sample size cliche.) True, perhaps that six-week trial didn't do AS MUCH AS WE WOULD LIKE, to attempt to prove a hypothesis wrong.
The problem is, the amigos who lean toward hypothesis 1 --- > have done NOTHING to attempt to prove themselves wrong. Their own theory safely nestled in the comfort of being non-disprovable, they are free to criticize others who ARE attempting to investigate their convictions.
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5. Wells' opportunity was given to him at age 27. In some ways, that's like Michael Saunders being given a trial, three years from now.
And it was given to Wells after he'd had 500+ PA's in the majors, across several seasons, and after he'd played well in the majors. Casper Wells does not merit the same patience that Dustin Ackley merits.
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6. Wells' audition produced this statline: .209 AVG. .267 OBP. .381 SLG. With 36 strikeouts in 34 games, against 8 walks.
There was no fulltime player in 2012 who had an OBP lower than .277. Perhaps the worst fulltime hitter in the majors was shortstop J.J. Hardy, whose statline was .238/.282/.389, with an EYE ratio twice as good as Wells'.
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7. Wells' failure, in full-time play, immediately followed his extreme success in part-time play. In June he had hit .325/.386/.486. Wells wasn't put into the lineup at a moment when he was struggling. He was red-hot when given his audition, and then he immediately went into the tank.
He was 1-for-4 in his first game .. then 0-fer his second game. 0-fer his third game. 0-fer his fourth game. The Mariners gave him thirty more games after that. He flailed away the entire time.
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8. If you want to advocate for Wells, claim that it hasn't been proven positively that he won't SUNBRN in fulltime play, sure, there is wiggle room for that.
It's quite possible that Billy Beane, or somebody, will someday give Casper Wells a fulltime job and he'll become a good fulltime player. That could happen.
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9. But the Mariners gave Wells his trial, and he flunked it. Badly. Now they're moving on. I can't fault them for that. They move on with a clear conscience.
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10. Most of us -- probably including the Mariners -- do believe that Casper Wells would be a truly championship-level 4th OF. The man can play center field, even.
Why Casper Wells is being swapped out for Jason Bay, you tell me. You're not going to get an ostentatious sermon about scientific method on THAT one.
I kind of suspect that two old buds were chatting at dinner, so to speak, and the Mariner shot-caller sort of got caught up in the moment with Bay. Hey, buddy, that New York thing was a shame. Just think'a what might be ...
THAT part of it is unfair to Wells, in my opinion. As a backup CF/RF/LF, spotted against the right pitchers, Wells could return a McLemore-level 10th-man performance.
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11. Michael Morse's power index, in 2011, was 173. That's the same thing as saying that he hit the ball as hard as Adam Dunn, Josh Hamilton, and Giancarlo Stanton hit the ball. Morse has been given a fulltime audition and he got even better when allowed into the octagon every day.
The Mariners had an unknown quantity, they tested it and got back lousy readings, and they're exchanging the questionable part for one they know can (and will) launch a pitch.
That's baseball, gentlemen. GM's do value good players more than they value clever experiments. It isn't just Zdurencik.
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BABVA,
Dr D
.838 lifetime OPS vs. lefties, including .891 last season, yeah Wells can find a home as my 4th outfielder. We lost Fister, but let's move on - he and Furbush are VERY useful parts for any team that knows how to tinker to success.
If you expand Wells' tryout to 6/16-8/10(42 starts in 48 Games) and just take his road Games, you get: .253/.292/.518 for a batting line with 27% Ks, 5.6% BBS, and a. 290 BABiP. So, he looked like Mike Morse, if Mike Morse didn't have the ability to run a .330+ BABiP, right down to his HR rate; 8.3% of Contact (AB-Ks+SH) where Morse ran a 7.8 rate in 2011.
I would love to see what the batting line was for the Mariners Right Handed Hitters vs Right Handed Pitchers at home. I think last year it would have looked like .175/.225/.250.
Rick and Mal make the cogent point here: Wells doesn't have to be a full-time bopper to be valuable to this team. We have two everyday OF's in Saunders and Morse. We will run Guti out there until he breaks, as well. But Wells plays all three OF positions and whacks lefties. He is exactly the type of guy that "4th OF's" are supposed to be. He's fairly valuable.
If Bay hits .390 with 6 homers in ST, then I might buy in, a bit. But if we dump Wells for something Bay USED to be......I won't get it.
moe
... though Wells' biggest selling point, to me, was that his power transcended OLD Safeco.
But yeah. Wells is a pull hitter and no telling what he'd do here in 2013...
But then how will LrKrBoi29 get it that we're not pollyannas?
;- ) good to have you Rick.
Wells does not walk or hit home runs enough to make up for his high K%.
Therefore, he is exactly the kind of guy who will tease you with hot streaks, but is unsuited for long-term success.
I was saying from Day One: do not make Wells an everyday corner OF ... but he might be a useful CF or 4th OF. You can look it up.
Sounds like that is now the consensus.
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I don't have a good way to guess what Bay has left, but my personal preference for that roster spot is: 1. Carp, 2. Wells, 3. Bay.
My guess as to the real-world likelihood: 1. Wells, 2. Bay, 3. Carp.
I truly think of Bay as a non-roster invitee, even though he isn't.
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Whoever gets it will get plenty of chances, because they're not going to want to run Morse's glove out there every night, and who knows what Guti will have left.
But FWIW, Guti slugged .523 in 22 games in Venezuela this winter (30-for-86, 3 HR)
Guti's fragile nature makes Carp an unlikely choice ahead of Wells, I think....
But I think we've bailed out on Carp way too early, Spec. Raul? An anti-Carp signing, as I see it. It will be interesting if Carp bashes in ST (assuming he's still ours at that time). What will Z do then?
Last year shouldn't count in the Carp analysis. He was obviously struggling with the shoulder injury. I still would much rather we give him the 1B job rather than Smoak. Alas, not likely.
An no matter how you slice it guys, Raul is still in the way. Wasn't it Cato the Elder, the Roman Senator, who ended each speech with the line "And Carthage must be destroyed."
I feel like that with Raul.
"And Raul must be let go!"
Moe the Elder
I'm not anti-Raul. I understand what they're trying to do there, though I acknowlege it's a vote-of-no-confidence in Carp and Smoak (only one of whom will survive, probably Smoak).
But it's funny/ironic that the Ms got rid of Ibanez in 2001 because Lou preferred the faster but non-talented Charles Gipson, and got rid of Morse in 2009 to bring in roster-filler Langerhans, and now, by bringing those two back, they might now squeeze out Carp, who could very well go on to have a Ibby-like career somewhere else.
worst article I've ever read. Don't give up your day job.
I could never make any money writing, you mean? Care to compare paychecks, Kemo Sabe? >:- )
True, if your game is just trying to milk one last wry smile out of a 1990's cliche, the industry can be a harsh mistress. But you'd be surprised how much sugar there is for original material.
Couldn't resist coming back at Tonto because of all the quality insults he had to pick from, he had to go with the only one that doesn't stick!, 'cause if my day job weren't a life mission, I definitely would give it up for writing. Talk about your growth industries; we're swamped here, coupla more new gigs just last week.
Not too swamped to reply to spambot-ty insults like that one, though, apparently :- }
and yours and Bakers articles over at MC:http://www.marinercentral.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=7598&mode=show&st=
A very well written article, you should go take a look, but basically the idea is that this really has nothing to do with over exposure, and more to do with Casper just isn't as talented as we had hoped when he was traded for. And that SafeCo + plus long slow start to summer really destroyed his BABIP (not so much his power), which the new fences won't help as much.
Jeff - not that you need support, but I am a professional writer (expository style - dry, to the point, with emphasis on making technical matters clear for laymen), and, IMHO, you are an extremely talented writer with great originality. So bah humbug to your detractor.