I'm telling you, this top 10 in this draft, between HS guys, serious college arms, and a tremendous college bat, should be really good. It looks like the pitching version of the 2005 draft to me.
Now, I'd rather have it be more hitter-oriented as that draft was, since they're more likely to make it through...but whatever happens, I want us to stay away from the Jeff Clement of this draft, whomever that might be. ;)
The college guys get to make their impressions first. Aside from Purke's slight blister problem, they're all showing very well. That's to be expected this season, but still - they're doing what they SHOULD do, which is to dominate hitters who are no longer capable of swing-bunting pitches off the CF wall.
Except for Rendon, who is a machine.
Starling, Lindor and the rest of the HS kids should be competing for spots below ours, and I still think the ONLY high-schooler with a shot at #2 is Starling, and that's if everything breaks right for him (not necessarily for us - he's the furthest away from the bigs of any of our potential options, as you say).
He does have a shot at being Bryce-Harper-in-CF, though, and if you believe it, then that's a safer bet than an arm, even if that arm is attached to the best college pitcher in the country who can step in as soon as 2012 to help this team on the big-league level.
Bubba's gonna get his shot to show what he's got. For now, I'm with you on the handicapping pretty much lock-step. Can Rendon pull a hamstring now or something...?
Sorry Anthony, no ill-will, but you'd look great in teal. Can you have Boras tell the Pirates you won't play for their terrible organization and would rather play for our awful one instead?
~G
Just my opinion. Rankings are Mariner-specific, which means (everything else being equal, of course):
Factor 1: Safeco -- LH pitchers benefit; RH hitters penalized
Factor 2: "2014" -- Felix contract up after 2014; Ichiro will be 40 in 2014
A "pure" abstract ranking of who would be the "best pick" might be different.
1. Anthony Rendon, RH 3b, Rice.
Starting to lap the field in Strasburgian fashion. 20 H, 8 xbh (4 dbl, 1 tpl, 3 HR), 13 BB (vs. 5 K) all in just 13 G. .435/.574/.761 -- with the new bats that were supposed to sap everyone of their power.
Some say: "imagine if Mark Teixeira had shortstop hands and was Gold Glove at 3b." Tex is a SH and Rendon is RH-only, but otherwise, yeah. Impossible to turn down, but pretty unlilkely he'll still be there.
2. Gerrit Cole, RH starter, UCLA.
It does seem like the college pitchers are ahead of the non-Rendon hitters, but Cole has really brought down the walks so far in 2011, showing perhaps a little extra maturity and command. His teammate Trevor Bauer, facing the same opposition, hasn't. FWIW. Cole gets the edge over the other college starters because his ceiling seems just as high, but his floor has less downside.
3. Matt Purke, LH starter, TCU.
After one start on a pitch count and one scratch, Purke finally went deep into a game on Sunday, and he picked up right where he left off from last year's 16-0 season: 6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K. What I love is that he was a high-school hotshot, but hasn't shown one iota of melting down from the hype.
4. Sonny Gray, RH starter, Vanderbilt.
People got squeamish about Gray, perhaps due to his size (5-11, 180), and started ranking Bubba Starling or Matt Barnes ahead of him. I don't really see why. Supposedly he has the best breaking stuff of all the college arms. Friday's game: 9.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 15 K.
5. Bubba Starling, RH OF/P, Gardner, KS
Still the "wild card," but George Springer's struggles (.172/.306/.345) move him up. If you knew he'd be Bryce Harper who could play CF, then he'd be higher. But how do you know? G's reference to the scouting report touting his baseball potential does make a difference (before, I'd just seen reports of how he's a freak athlete). But the "2014" factor downgrades him in my book (again, everything else being equal).
New wild card: Francisco Lindor, SH SS, Orlando, FL
HS shortstop supposedly rocketing up everyone's board after homering from both sides of the plate in early-season action; this after winning the home run derby at an all-star game last fall. He's a true switch-hitter with a plus glove at short, which has everyone buzzing about the power. Hard to see the Ms biting at #2 ("2014 factor" again), but at least it's within the realm of possibility.
Comments
I see now that it was Justin who provided the scouting report from the Oriole scout on Bubba Starling (http://seattlesportsinsider.com/news/weekend-update-erik-paxton-rendon-e...), and G commented on it. Sorry, Justin. That was an excellent find.
Ce-oh-el-ee, that's how you spell the Mariner's first pick in the draft in June :)
If we can't get Rendon, who the M's should snap up so fast it leaves a vapor trail if the Pirates pass on him, then it has to be Cole.
I actually have a reason behind my pick beyond the obvious. Cole shows that he is not afraid to go inside. I like that in a pitcher. Cole has shown great control so far, 25/4 K/BB rate and 0 (zero) wild pitches, but he's plunked 3 batters in his 3 appearances. This tells me that the kid has a bit of an attitude about the plate and takes ownership of it. Crowd him, and you run the risk of having the ball buzz past your earhole. Or in it.
Give me a pitcher with an attitude like that any day of the week!
Lonnie
But so does Purke. Cole hit 11 guys last year in 123 IP with 7 WP. Purke hit 10 in 116 IP (also with 7 WP). Even in that, they pitch at about the same level of aggressiveness.
I'm glad to see Cole's control of the zone improving early in the year. Purke had him beat hands down in walk rate last season, and has 1 less year in college to have gotten to that point.
Can't fault you for liking Cole, though, Lonnie. He's a formidable pitcher.
~G
...it tells us that college batters crowd the blate with their led pipes to cover outside pitches with authority. :) Still...it does suggest he at least pitches inside.
But looking at UCLA's pitcher stats for 2010 they didn't throw inside particularly often (by HBP totals) except for Cole and Garett Claypool.
In college, pitching inside is hazardous because you can't break bat handles and guys can get around on inside pitches with those light bats and get the bigger sweetspot on the ball still - or fist a ball over the infielders.
A lot of college guys get in the bad habit of throwing outside all the time since inside pitching leads to excess hits.
Cole and Purke are not members of that club. :) And I would expect this year that far more pitchers are gonna be going inside to batters as the year goes on.
~G
You're probably right that college pitchers have been taught to nibble on the outer corner because the old bats could get around on heat inside and because if you come inside, you coudl be killed (most likely line drive location on a pitch that is intended to be inside and misses over the plate at all is right at your head). Maybe the new bats will make it easier to judge college pitching talent.
I think it's more likely that it'll help prepare college hitters for immediate help in the bigs (since they will be attacked inside just like they are in the pros) and their stats should be more easily translatable (is that a word? looks odd...) to pro ball. We won't have to shave a couple hundred points off the slugging any more, and guys who shouldn't try to swing for the fences won't be trying, since 3 years of college has convinced them that they are not HR hitters.
For pitchers though? They have nothing to be afraid of in college any more. Very few hitters will be able to go deep on them, inside pitching is no longer death, and even the sweet-spot of the bat has been lessened to kill the trampoline effect and reduce the effectiveness of college hitters.
The problem is, most college hitters are not pros. They're tiny, scrawny slap-bunters. With their one advantage of fast bats that can connect hard and drive the ball negated, most good college arms will only be challenged by one or two guys per game. It'll be like stocking a NL team with 4 pitchers that have to bat instead of 1, and then trying to compare pitching between the NL and the AL.
I don't think it helps college pitchers adjust to the pro game as much as it helps good college hitters. A lot of pitchers will be in for a RUDE awakening when they find out that the #9 hitter in the AL can still drive the ball against them and they get shelled in pro ball against hitters that can club breaking balls and get around on fastballs.
Problem is, you won't know who the mentally tough pitchers are who can handle that adjustment until you get em in your system.
I think it's gonna be really interesting. More than ever, good college bats are gonna be prized.
~G
FWIW, this was in Jim Callis's Ask BA article for this week...
"As of this moment, the top five picks in the 2011 figure to be Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon and UCLA righthander Gerrit Cole (battling for the No. 1 spot), followed by college pitchers Matt Purke (Texas Christian), Sonny Gray (Vanderbilt) and Taylor Jungmann (Texas) in some order. There are several other players who have the talent to go that high, including outfielders George Springer (Connecticut) and Bubba Starling (Gardner-Edgerton HS, Gardner, Kan.), righthanders Matt Barnes (Connecticut) and Archie Bradley (Broken Arrow, Okla., HS), and lefthanders Danny Hultzen (Virginia) and Jed Bradley (Georgia Tech)."
You do raise a good point about college bats largely being inferior, weak-bodied guys who can handle a glove...but I would also argue that college pitchers will be taught more about how to pitch with the new bats. You see a TON of college pitchers come into a minor league system supposedly featuring 2 BB rates and give up 5 BB rates when they get here because the college strikezone3 is wider than AA zone and because a lot of their "command" is just throwing an arrow straight fastball on the outside edge repeatedly. You also see a lot fo current college pitchers running a very simple (and not all that effective) strategy at big leaguers when they arrive...pitch outside and throw the occasionally breaking ball to get guys to chase. They're going to be taught how to pitch inside now...at least the smart ones.
Could be interesting to see how the next generation of college draftees will translate.
Two scenarios I'm hoping for:
1) New bats lead to a monster season for Cole, who the Pirates snag at #1 leaving us with Rendon.
2) Bubba Starling has a great rookie season and we snag him at #2. Hes the one guy in the draft with even more upside than Rendon.
I'd really rather avoid a pitcher at #2. Purke is a mechanical disaster and Cole while ok, has the same high-elbow issue that Pineda has (meaning shoulder-issues in the future). Combining the injury risk and new bats, the pitchers aren't as attractive. Neither guy is Justin Verlander.
I want a position player at #2 and hopefully its Rendon (if he drops) or Bubba (if he has a good year). No George Springer.
I haaaaaaaaaate taking pitchers with a top-5 pick. That should be where your MOTO bats come from that can play for you for a decade, instead of a pitcher who can rip his arm at any time and get you nothing for such a high pick.
Still, Clement, Gordon, even BJ Upton have missed to a greater or lesser extent while Verlander, Price and others have been pitching dynamos from Day 1.
If you took Matt Bush, high-school SS prodigy, to try to save money and have a safer pick in 2004, sorry D-Backs.
Moral of the story: you can blow a hitting pick too. I'm with you, Taro, Springer makes me really nervous. Don't want him. I've already got a dozen guys in the minors with thunderous power, long swings and huge K numbers.
I understand the appeal when you see a strappin' young lad up there swinging lumber like he's cutting down trees, but please pass.
I'd love for Cole to impress the Pirates so much that they forget about their decade of misery drafting pitchers in the first round and go for another one.
They DO need major league pitching STAT, even if all their minor league prospects are basically pitchers too. Most of them are years away.
Failing that, Starling is the only guy I think MIGHT get us off of an arm if the Pirates don't have an aneurysm and pass on Rendon.
But he's still got a lot to prove, and I don't know how he can prove it to us against inferior competition...which makes me think Cole's the guy unless he falls off his horse or somehow gets overtaken by another pitcher.
~G
He's signed a letter of intent to play for Nebraska, who will also let him play baseball (and pitch, supposedly).
If he really is all that, he'll still be a high draft pick in three years, except more polished, and he'll also have had the chance to find out if he'd rather be a QB than a CF.
Even if that's not what he wants to do, you better bet that Boras will deploy it for every ounce of leverage. But I also think there's a pretty decent chance that is what he'll want to do.
So with Starling there's also the chance that you whiff altogether. Getting an extra pick in 2012 is NOT what Z will want out of this draft.
In that regard, Cole has the least leverage compared to Purke or Starling, since Purke can also return to school and still be a junior.
Returning rate for hitters is much higher than pitcher just do to injury. I think Cole is almost a Verlander/Price type talent, but both of those guys are very good mechanically and figure for 2000+ IPs in the bigs pretty easily IMO. Cole's high elbow concerns me given the bust rate for top pitching specs.
I'm one of the few guys that didn't mind losing out on Strasburg for the same reason..
Even so, Cole is the clear #2 so far, but if Bubba can boost his stock close enough to Cole I'd really rather go with the high upside hitter.
It depends on whether Bubba can boost his stock really.. If he can, I'd rather take that risk. #3 in '12 could land a top position player talent as well, or maybe a safer pitcher.
I'm really hesitant on drafting pitchers that high on unless they're really good mechanically like Verlander, Price, Lincecum, etc.
The bust rate of high school players versus college players is going to narrow the risk gap when comparing a HS hitter to a college pitcher. My understanding is that Bubba is raw for a HS player, too. This fuels the excitement about his potential, but it also increases the risk he fails. How often do these two sport stars develop into baseball players?
Ya, it would depend on Bubba raising his stock.
Hes supposedly raw based on the scouting reports, which means he could go either way.
This is definitely going to be a HOF feature if Spec follows on weekly and the cross-checkers come out in force. You don't get to handicap a #2 pick every year.
Oh, wait...
..................
Spec you know how to make it a 'series' under the Features area? Create a series page and then assign each post to the series? If not, I'll set it up that way.
Is that there's something in their wiring that is attached to the idea of just-add-water instant Cy Young starters.
They might intellectually resolve not to make that mistake again, but then the pressure builds, they agonize over it and, in a last-minute emotional decision, they revert to what is natural to them: go for the Felix Hernandez in the draft.
I doubt that it's an unrealistic scenario. The Pirates like pitching. Easy for fans to be detached.
Doubt signability is going to be much of a concern for any team with 1st rounders this year. Wouldn't be surprised if every 1st rounder signs this year with all of the uncertainty with the CBA for next year's draft.
Good observation - that's exactly what happened last year. They were leaning towards Machado all the way up to the morning of the draft, then had a last minute change of heart. They do lose value in Alvarez if he's pushed to 1B, and they might see some injury concerns with Rendon. Also, the prospect of a Cole-Taillon-Allie Big 3 is almost as scary as a Smoak-Ackley-Franklin-Rendon infield!
Agree 100%, except for Starling.
None of the others are top-10 football recruits with football bodies and football skills.
Nebraska's Bo Pelini has ditched the last vestiges of West Coast "finesse" from his offense (parting ways with his off. coordinator), and wants a "physical, attacking" offense. You think maybe he fits the bill? Check out the run that starts at 0:41 where he drags the defender into the end zone.
I'm not saying he will forego the baseball millions for a shot at big-time football, but I'm not dismissing the probability. Especially when baseball will still be there in three years, and he can spend those three years playing on ESPN in front of 100,000 instead of in little towns in the Midwest League.
I don't think it's as cut-and-dried as that, Spec. Nebraska is not his dream school, it's the school that runs an offense he can lead as a QB and the one that would let him keep playing baseball.
If he's getting 6 or 7 million (or 9-10 if we draft him #2) to play baseball right now, versus playing the sort of beat-em-up football that could end his baseball career in a heartbeat...
It's not so simple. He's not gonna be a pro QB. He can have 3 years of glory in college as a quarterback, but he's not a pro. So it's all about his baseball career as a way to riches.
"You can have 7 million dollars now, or risk injury and falling draft stock as you top out as a baseball player and get drafted so much later that you lose 6+ million of that. How much do you want to play football?"
I don't know if it's that much. I'd sure want to know before I drafted him, though.
~G
G, I have teenage boys, and I wish they ever were that rational! :-)
I see an athlete with a strength-and-speed combo that's unusual in itself, but also great balance for a big guy (presumably also why folks are so excited about his power-hitting potential).
But frankly, I would see a 0% percent chance that his skill-set combo wouldn't play somewhere on an NFL field (QB, probably not, but you never know). Hines Ward was a college QB; Brian Urlacher was a 6-foot-4 safety. If he can be a non-head-case Josh Hamilton, why can't he be a non-head-case Jeremy Shockey?
On the other hand, there's still a very decent chance that he maxes out at the Tui level in baseball. I mean, how do you know? He just looks like a football player to me.
And, the quarterback at Nebraska is the most famous human being in the state. Every game is on national TV (literally). The exposure value has to counterbalance the injury risk to some extent.
Like I said, I don't know what the likelihood is, and I don't doubt that the rational choice is baseball-only, but I think there is a much greater chance that Starling doesn't sign than any of the other potential picks.
Starling is the guy with other options, and you're gonna pay through the nose to keep him from those options.
He's got more options than most high schoolers that might cause him to choose college over the pros.
If teams skip him for that and he's drafted later in the 1st I would absolutely expect him to pull a Gerrit Cole, choose college without even getting a dollar figure from a pro team, and go enjoy 3 years leading the Nebraska football and baseball teams.
Maybe he loses money that way, but it won't be nearly as much as turning down #2 money. And he could make far more money, as Cole is looking to do, moving from 1-3 million at the back of the first round to 9ish million at the top of it.
If Starling slides, college is a very viable option. If he's a top-5 pick? I would expect Boras to get his pound of flesh and Bubba to choose baseball.
But either way there's a risk there - more so because of how raw Starling happens to be. He has a short, clean swing with some lower body mechanical issues from what I can see, but there's a lot of learning still to go there. The guys who run the US team view him as the best prospect even with that raw edge to him, though. Basically untutored he's doing better than all the kids who play 12 months a year with the best coaches.
That's both good and bad.
The fact that he's arm-swinging balls over the fence so far that they've restricted BP to wood bats only, so as not to endanger the elementary school kids still puts a smile on my face, though. ;)
~G
Did you guys see Keith Law's scouting report on Cole from the UCLA/Georgia game Friday night (insider only): http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=law_keith&id=6209620
In it, he calls Cole the number 1 prospect in the draft and compares him to Strasburg (hopefully I'm not giving away too much of his pay column):
"I think it's reasonable to discuss the comparison of Cole to Strasburg, who was the top college pitcher in the 2009 draft and among the best we've ever seen. Both pitchers are listed at 6-foot-4, 220 pounds. Strasburg had more velocity, but not a lot more -- he'd sit 94-98 and touch 100, while Cole worked at 92-98 without touching anything over 98. Both featured above-average breaking balls; Strasburg's was more consistent than what Cole showed tonight. Cole has a far better changeup, and his changeup might even be better than Strasburg's breaking ball was at the time he was drafted."
Sounds like a pretty nice consolation prize if Rendon's off the board. Or even if he's not.
...to say stuff like that. :) But another part of that article is that the scouts are blown away by how Cole should be successful in the pros now, and Rendon is DHing again or otherwise not in the field every day even while his ankle is not holding back his bat one bit.
If Rendon is gonna have trouble at 3rd base or his leg could make a long career problematic, he's not necessarily who you might want as a #1 pick - unless you have a DH slot as a fallback, which Pittsburgh does not. OTOH, we already know what it's like to have a HOF third baseman who can't play the field due to injury.
I'd LOVE to take my chances with Rendon, but Lonnie's heart will break without Cole to help Felix and Pineda front this rotation.
Either way, it looks good for us in June. There are some monsters in this draft. Keep it up, boys...
~G
what G said...
Thanks for the heads up though that the analysts are going psycho on Cole...
Why anyone still listens to, reads, or remotely cares about anything he says is beyond me. He's famous for stuff like this that's way...way off base.
Listen up Pirates... :)
Still, I hate this phenomenon: without players to overhype the hype machine is unnecessary, so they FIND players to overhype who are unworthy compared to their predecessors.
Strasburg has/had an incomparable arm. Harper WAS doing amazing things as a sophomore. Lincecum destroyed college with an out-of-the-box motion and did the same to pros.
Cole...is a pitcher. He's a good pitcher. I'm with Taro, I put him a little bit behind Verlander and Price but he's catching up fast. But that makes you a TOR guy, not a circus attraction singularity like some others.
I do hope Pittsburgh views Cole exactly the way Law writes that he does, and that those scouts do, however.
Rendon might not be a circus attraction either...but I think he's closer to it than Cole, and I want a Big Top and a show, thank you very much.
~G
Is Law's credibility really that bad with everyone? I didn't realize that.
More than the straight up comparison to Strasburg, I was interested to read about Cole's repetoire; plus fastball, plus-plus change, and potential for an above average or better breaking ball.
He has a large readership...there are obviously people who value his input...I don't understand why...but there you have it. I do like that he goes to see the major names in person and gives you a little bit more info when he does his write-ups. That still has value (as you noted)
You'll find those who love him and hate him.... Law's credibility in the industry is actually pretty high, as far as I can tell...
Would give him lots of credit for diamond-hard saber background, plenty of experience hanging around bona fide tools scouts (at this point in his career), and connections...
Only quibble I'd have, is that where differences of opinion are possible on a scouting level, he seems to go left a lot where I (or G or J, for that matter) would go right... those who give him credit for being a Bob Fontaine-level tools scout do not reside at SSI, I don't think ... :- )
There are ex-saberdweebs who now work the tools scout territory, including local types, and pitch themselves as having authoritative clipboards at field level... they often come across to me as transplanted sabers who can't quite get the transplant to take...
NOT the case with, say, G-Money who has mastered all the saber stuff and yet has a very fine feel for where a given set of tools and skills is going to fit in, two levels on... if the ESPN / CNNSI folks wanted really gifted resources, they'd do better to emulate the NFL and focus on talent rather than on reputation, as they did with Law...
Let's say that Fox spotted Jay Yencich, gave him access to 30 GM's (!) and the scouting directors and a press pass and the ballplayers and all that... well, I'd like to see just how John Clayton'ish that guy would become in a few years...
Same is true of Sullivan, of Gordon and of a few others... genuine whiz kids who would far surpass the level that has been demonstrated by the current crop at the big media centers...
So my quibble with most of the current 'names' is that they have failed to fulfill that kind of destiny, but it's just my $0.02 :- )
..........
But an interesting resource, and a voice worth hearing? Thumbs up from Dr. D FWIW...