Q:  Seems to me that the disconnect between you and the rest of the blog-o-sphere is NOT the valuation of Cedeno, but instead the valuation of Heilman.

A1.  Agreed.  And the trade's fine if Aaron Heilman is a bit part, thrown in on the "Franklin Gutierrez" trade.

This is definitely the way that the Mariners themselves spin it:  that they traded J.J. Putz for Franklin Gutierrez, plus a hodgepodge of interesting parts that suit Capt Jack's philosophy.  If you ask the Mariners, they'll certainly tell you that Heilman was simply not that important to them -- ergo, there's no sense caring one way or the other what they got for Heilman.

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A2.  Once again, I approve of the idea of bringing in "my kind of players" in an effort to perform a heart transplant in the clubhouse.  Though players like Endy Chavez, Chris Shelton, Ronny Cedeno, by themselves are fringe players ... as a group they are intended to install a new chemistry.  No argument.  That is what great roster managers in fact do to 100-loss teams.  You're not going to see Bill Parcells or Pat Gillick keep the old Entitled Vets around.  Boom, the locker room moguls are Abreu'ed out of town for zero.

Chemistry is the #1 issue for a 100-loss team with a $100M payroll.  The M's have players.  Chemistry is the level on which this huge flotilla of fringe imports can make an impact, IMHO. 

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A3.  You'll notice that Aaron Heilman got penciled in as the closer real quick.  :- )

And then you'll notice that, although he was needed at closer, he got penciled into the #4 rotation slot real quick.

It's a little thing called talent.  Aaron Heilman had it.  And having spent last year honing his #3 pitch, there was every reason to believe he was capable of a Jeremy Guthrie "ex-mid-1st-rounder" explosion this year.

It's no guarantee, but if the #30 starter has come and gone in a roto draft, are you saying you wouldn't love to grab Heilman there?  Thought so.

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The Mariners didn't like Heilman; they obviously grabbed the trade that offered the most value.  But while he was here, they grudgingly behaved as though he were the best player in the deal.

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A4.  The Mariners do indeed see Franklin Gutierrez as the key return on J.J. Putz.  I respect that.

But if anybody asked me, and nobody did:  It's not at all clear to me that Gutierrez HIMSELF is not an ML fringe player.  I think he has a good 50% chance of finding his level as a #4 outfielder in the major leagues -- and Safeco is going to be more of a nightmare for him than it was for Mike Cameron.

I PERSONALLY viewed Heilman as the key to the Putz deal, because I didn't want to think about trading J.J. Putz for a good-glove, no-hit outfielder plus some spare change.  But yeah, I understand that Gutierrez is the guy the Mariners wanted.

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A5.  So you had traded (1) a $1.00 superstar closer for (2) a $0.70 lesser closer, (3) a $0.40 fringe starting outfielder, and (4) bench $0.10 players and lukewarm prospects.  This is a trade template that no roto champion ever won a league with, in the history of cyberspace, and it doesn't work with 70-, 60- and 40-cent pieces, either.

You win by scrounging easily-available talent and then converting it into the top roster slots, and then repeating the cycle.  You do this by getting the best player in every deal, not by giving him up in every deal.  Now the Mariners are sitting on a bunch of Endy Chavezes and Ronny Cedenos they could get out of AAA if they wanted to.

But that's okay, 'cause I think closers are overrated anyway.

NOW you've got  (1) a $1.00 superstar closer for (2) a $0.40 or $0.60 fringe starting outfielder, (3) an $0.20 third middle infielder, (4) an $0.30 rotation candidate and (4) bench $0.10 players and lukewarm prospects. 

Whether or not that $0.30 rotation candidate happens to win 14 games, it's not a trade that good roster managers make.  But again, that's okay.

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Do I agree that the trade makes sense if you think Aaron Heilman is worthless and Franklin Gutierrez is an impact player, so it didn't matter what you got for Heilman anyway?

Sure. 

I appreciate the logic as sound, though disagree with the valuations of the players.

Cheers,

Dr D