Larry Walker hit .170/.264/.170 in his first year, at 22, in 47 AB's. (Adam Jones has 54 AB's now.) His MLB arc looked like this:
22 - Pathetic
23 - Average
24 - Above Average
25 - Star
Miguel Tejada at 21 hit .202/.240/.333. His OPS+ lines went like this:
21 - 50 (pathetic in 100 AB's)
22 - 78
23 - 91
24 - 112
25 - 112
26 - MVP
Jay Buhner had an OBP of .261 in his first cup of coffee, but the next year was league average. Jim Lefebvre, for several years, was sure he would *never* hit. It isn't just us 'net rats who can turn on a young player quickly.
Bobby Crosby hit .000/.171/.000 in his first cup of coffee, but the next year was league average.
Vlad Guerrero hit .185/.185/.296 in his first cup of coffee, but the next year was league average, and the year after that he was Vlad. Well, okay, that one doesn't count. LOL.
Jose Lopez hit .232 with a .267 OBP in his first 200 AB's, but as soon as he had 400 AB's in the rear-view mirror, he was the "surprise" of the ballclub.
As you know, Jose needed a few years. Now, it sez here, he's arrived.
Edgar Martinez got his first real crack at the majors when he was 26 — several years after he was ready. He hit .240/.314/.304 in 171 AB's in that season. Hey, adjusting to a new league full of pitchers is tough, even if they aren't any better than the ones you're used to seeing.
Y'don't like those, fine, get yer own. There are any number of MLB stars who hit like pitchers in their first hundred AB's.
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We Seattleites have a real issue with delayed gratification. :- )
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1) We opined that Adam Jones had nothing more to learn in AAA, as it turned out he didn't. We opined that as soon as Adam Jones had 50 AB's in the bank, everybody would be screaming to send him back down. As we did on Jose Lopez. We were screaming in ST that Jose had to produce now, or go back to AAA (or out in trade).
Delayed gratification.
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Wlad Balentien got 243 AB's in Seattle, and we lost interest.
If you put Wlad back in AAA, it doesn't skip the MLB learning chapter — it just kicks the can down the road a year, so that Wlad will be struggling when the M's are fighting for the pennant (or, alternatively, hitting 35 homers for somebody else while the Mariners are signing an aging vet).
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Now, there is a key difference between Wlad and Adam Jones, IMHO: Wlad has things he could learn in AAA. In Wlad's case, I have real enthusiasm for the idea of giving him some more minors time -- if you could hold on to him during 2009 while he's in AAA.
But don't lose interest in him. :- ) It looks like he will probably hit 30 homers some day. And not too far from today.
Cheers,
Dr. D