Q. Is there any good news?

A. That Zduriencik likes him.

I hate to be the wallflower here, but let's hope that Zoidberg likes Carp specifically, and not because Carp is left-handed. We're all interested in giving Mr. Z credit for targeting individuals, rather than vague ideas -- let's hope that Carp isn't an "idea" -- generic corner LH'er with power and some walks. Because if that's what he is, it isn't a decision that's any better than one Bavasi would make.

It's quite possible that Zduriencik sees something in Mike Carp that he specifically likes. Carp in 2008 took a real nice leap forward, from lousy hitting stats in 2007 to a .300 AVG with .400 OBP last year. Maybe he showed something. I wouldn't doubt it.

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Q. Prospect Insider has the Mariners starting Carp in AAA and maybe getting a look in Safeco in 2009 -- maybe even early in 2009. Does that make sense?

A. Carp's career path suggests to me that he'll need two full years in AA/AAA from here, and then 2-3 years of development in the majors before he'll produce.

But if the Mariners are THAT high on Carp, to be talking about him for Safeco, then that gives us hope in the direction of their believing that Carp "put it together" in 2008.

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Q. In what scenario could Mike Carp contribute to a pennant in Seattle?

A. Realistically, if Carp can produce somewhat-close-to-league-average performance at 1B -- let's say .270/.340/.460 or something, and do it for peanuts --

Then he could serve as the $400,000 Scrub that allows the Mariners to deploy their $100M around the diamond and become an excellent team.

That's kind of tough at the position Carp plays. If Carp is at 1B, hitting kinda-sorta okay, that frees up money for ... what? Not for Adam Dunn, nor for a DH (since you'll have Clement and others at that spot).

It's harder to do this than you might think. Milwaukee in 2008 didn't use org guys like Bryan Lahair posting 100 OPS's at corner spots. They used young superstars like Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, and had vets like Mike Cameron, Bill Hall, and Jason Kendall around them. Rickey Weeks was a cheap 100-OPS youngster, but Weeks is at a glove position and besides, Weeks is a 1st-rounder.

Still, any time you can get a 100-110 OPS+ Scrub playing for the minimum, it makes it easier to figure out the rest from there.

A great precedent for this kind of strategy would be the Oakland A's, who have gotten "surprising" -- and cheap -- production from guys like Dan Johnson and Travis Buck.   These guys weren't blue chippers, either.

The Dan Johnson - Travis Buck type of strategy isn't especially a Milwaukee strategy, but it certainly is an Oakland strategy.  Billy Beane would probably be pleased to add Mike Carp to his organization.

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Q.  Does this strategy work?  Under what conditions?

A. Notice that the A's tend to let these guys develop in the minors, and then make immediate contributions at the ages of 24 or 25 or even 26.

If you're going to try to squeeze three years of cheap, and SIGNIFICANT, production out of a Mike Carp type, you probably want to let him spend that EXTRA year in the bushes.

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Q.  Executive summary is?

A. I like Carp okay if he's held back until he's more-than-ready, and then used as part of a scaffolding to prop up a core set of star players in Seattle.   He's a nice add in that scenario.

Cheers,

jemanji