Seattle Sports Insider

POTD Mike Carp - the Bad and the Ugly

Posted by

12/20/08

Q. What's the local consensus?

A. That Carp isn't a blue-chipper, but that he does become the best 1B prospect in the system. Also that he moves the ship into the direction of LH power and higher eye ratio.

Q. Does he have upside?

A. The idea has been floated that his ceiling is to be a Lyle Overbay-type hitter.

That's an interesting stylistic template -- .290/.370/.460, let's say -- good gap power, some walks, no speed. If Carp panned out, you could see the template there.

Actually, from where I sit, Lyle Overbay was always a lot more talented than Mike Carp seems to be. Overbay came right out of college and posted 900-1000 OPS's from day one, never posting a minors OPS of less than 895 at any time.

In Overbay's first crack at AA, he posted an OBP wayyyyy over .400, and then repeating AA the next year, he was .400-and-plenty again.

Granted, Carp is a high school draftee, so the numbers have to be transliterated. But you can see where the minor-league performance has been quite pedestrian by comparison.

And the suggestion of course would be that an Overbay-type major leaguer is Carp's ceiling, to have a few .310/.370/.500 seasons in the bigs, as Overbay has. But I'm not sure you should be hoping for an Overbay-type top end on Carp, any more than you would for Bryan Lahair.

Q. Does the pedestrian minors performance rule out Carp's being an impact player?

A. Not really. For example, Michael Saunders is viewed by baseball execs as having the ceiling of an ML All-Star. Saunders' minor-league performance has been considerably better than Carp's, but nothing like that of a Jose Lopez, who starred in AAA at 20.

Saunders' minors hitting doesn't suggest ML All-Star, but his tools and physical potential do. In other words, there are some guys who aren't yet producing like blue-chippers, but the scouts see the flashes .... along comes the day, for some of these thoroughbreds, when they explode.

Carp isn't known for having this kind of physical skill, that I've seen.

Q. Does he compare well to any major league star that you know of?

A. You go through and compare him to past and current ML stars who played the corner and hit lefty .... just grabbing a few here, stream-of-consciousness style: Nick Johnson always had far, far more walks. Mark Teixeira (LOL) hit for a 1000 OPS in AA in his first year out of college, and was always accused of light-tower power. Carlos Delgado was a Grade-A prospect from the day he was 6 years old.

Ryan Howard, known for his slow start, was always a huge guy with big power potential -- and he also was well ahead of Carp statistically. Check Prince Fielder's track. etc etc.

It's kind of chickenfeathers to compare the guy to the ML stars, and doesn't prove much, but the point is -- if you are hoping for ML impact from a prospect, he should have either a fast-track performance, or signature physical talent.

Q. How does Carp compare to, say, Bryan Lahair?

A. A lot better than he does to ML starters. Carp is about a year head of Lahair, but then again Lahair's a draft-and-follow. Carp has a somewhat better eye, but is physically smaller, by quite a bit.

Q. So where is he as an org prospect?

A. Not in a top ten, unless by default in a weak field. Sorry. He'll prove me wrong shortly, if applicable. :- )

Q. Can he help the Mariners win their next pennant?

A. If the question is, can he help the Mariners win their next pennant, my answer is, I do not like his performance record. Not for the position he plays, and what he'd have to do at 1B to help a good ML ballclub.

Obviously, that's not the final word. Everybody will be watching Carp at AAA. If he puts up a big season, great -- Zduriencik identified a player BEFORE the player broke through. That's what we all want to see.

For me, the 3rd player in the Putz deal was Maikel Cleto. Carp is -- hopefully! -- a push for Valbuena, and the other guys are nonissues.

In my world, the Mariners traded Putz for Heilman, Gutierrez and Cleto, which is a deal I don't like nearly as much as everybody else does.

But that's another subject. Let's hope for that big year in AAA from the new fish in town.

Cheers,

jemanji

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image: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ac/

Binghamton_Mets_Mike_Carp.jpg/280px-Binghamton_Mets_Mike_Carp.jpg

Comments

And Cleto is a long long

And Cleto is a long long LOOOOOWWWWWWWNNNG shot at best.
Dude can't strike out my grandmother.

Quick note here. While I

Quick note here. While I understand the relationship between AGE and PRODUCTION in the minors, and how early (by calendar age) production is what makes sabrgeeks drool, I would like to point out what I believe is an error in ... phraseology.
When you state: Michael Saunders minor league performance: "has been considerably better than Carp’s", it is not completely true. Saunders has a career .798 minor league OPS, to Carp's .811. By STRAIGHT numbers, the comparison is:
.274/.371/.440/.811 - Carp
.274/.362/.436/.798 - Saunders
Not a completely fair comparison - since Saunders career line is pulled down by a 95-AB AAA line of .708, and Carp hasn't touched AAA yet. But, ASIDE from age, there's no footing whatsoever for the assessment that Saunders has been "considerbly better". In point of fact, one of the leading complaints about Carp is a concern about his whiff-rate. Well, Carp has 417 Ks in 1835 ABs. Saunders has a nearly identical 409 Ks. But Saunders has only 1382 ABs. Saunders would have to go whiff-less for 453 ABs to get to where Carp has been.
Of course, Carp's extra ABs pretty much come from his 2008 season, (478), when he posted his career year .874 OPS. I understand the concern about the .299 average on the .274 career. I understand the hesitation over the first-ever .403 OBP, when he had been posting .350 - .370 numbers.
What I do NOT get is what it is about Carp's age 22-season that is so readily dismissed. The evidence says that he learned SOMETHING about pitch selection, as his K/BB ratio changed from 2:1 to 1:1!!! The REAL interesting thing to me is that his patience didn't change. His career difference between average and OBP? 97. His difference in in 2008? 104. The "hint" is that he stopped swinging and missing SOMETHING, and started turning the something into base hits. His 17-HR and 29-2Bs were pretty much identical to his numbers in 2006 in A+ ball. But he added 20 walks and dropped 20 Ks. The SECRET in all of this that explains why it seems his patience improved - but his BA/OBP comparison doesn't show it -- is that in 2005 and 2006 he had 21 and 25 HBP, but only 6 in 2008. He WAS getting plunked routinely early in his career. That ended -- but instead of turning those into BIPs -- they ALL turned into walks?
The evidence points to some kind of adjustment -- especially to inside pitches.
In truth, Adam Jones breakout in AAA in 2007 always "felt" to me more like a career year -- same hitter, same traits, just a spike in results. Of course, it's a helluva spike -- and I know I'm in the minority -- as scouts, pundits, and just about everyone in the blog-o-sphere annointed AJ as the next Hall of Famer to come thru Tacoma.
My "sense" of Carp is not only that the 2008 is not simply a career year - but that it shows the signs of a player who learned SOMETHING. And to me, THAT is huge. It's not the "what" he learned -- it's the sense that he has the capacity to adapt. That gives me hope that when he reaches the majors and struggles for a bit - that given the videotape and individual instruction and all the plusses afforded major leaguers - that he's more likely to overcome those struggles than say - Jeff Clement, who began and ended his minor league tenure showing pretty much the same guy out as in.
When I see a player go up the ladder, most seem to follow the pattern of -- thrive -- move up, struggle -- return to previous thriving level, (or maybe just a hair less). Lather, rinse, repeat. MOST players, based on my very unscientific perusal of minor league stat sheets is that you get out what you got in. But, the ones who go on to be something special or UNEXPECTED in the majors - change their spots somewhere along the way. They begin the journey as X -- then somewhere, they become Y or Z.
I think the Seattle farm has been infested with "stagnant" player types - largely due to the fixation on quick twich "athlete" types - and an aversion to the "cerebral" guys. I take the "Z" comment about looking for "ball players" actually goes to this. The ball player IS the guy who is naturally pre-disposed to experimentation and adjustment. The athlete doesn't know beans from adjustment -- he's never had to try. (Which makes it a total crapshoot as to which athlete type will "get it", and adapt).
My belief is that it is the MENTAL aspect more than the physical that gets a Lopez over the hump, and you start seeing new skills -- while a player like YuBet remains utterly stagnant. And stats are baaaad at capturing that mental gift of maleability.

1. If Carp has been as good

1. If Carp has been as good as Saunders, performance-wise, then he was a much better addition than I thought.
Hope that you're right amigo :- )

Unfortunetly it looks like

Unfortunetly it looks like even Mike Carp's '08 was luck driven ( a high BABIP not supported by LD% or power).

Thanks for getting on that

Thanks for getting on that Taro. Didn't have time to go to minorleaguesplits. http://minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=455077
The .335 BABIP for Carp last year certainly didn't suppress his numbers :- ) but for a lefty thumper who zings the ball around the lot, it might not be all that wild of a target for him, IMHO.
One good thing about his splits is, I really like that 58/55 eye ratio against RH'ers for the year.
Also, notice the progression of his eye throughout the year:
06/15 - April
10/14 - May
16/19 - June
18/19 - July
26/20 - Aug/Sept
Will bet you that if you asked the M's, that chart above would be one of the first things they brought up. And if so, it's very Oakland-type thinking.
If Carp comes out in 2009 and runs a 1+ eye ratio in AAA -- and he could -- then the conversation changes IMHO...

Good stuff on the eye ratio

Good stuff on the eye ratio Doc. Also looks like his LD% and pop were better than I remembered (the BABIP really isn't inflated. I haven't seen him play, but from what I've heard he has the upside of being a regular.
You have to question how valuable that is though. Hes reportedly averagish defensively, so unless he really suprises with the bat its hard to envision him in a few years as a starter at 1B.
I say just sign Dunn.