I'd let him noodle around the minors looking for a screwball or a curve, but he's gotta come off the 40 man this winter.  That's okay - nobody's poaching him, and if they do, besta luck. He's ours for 4 more years before he becomes a FA, so there's no harm in letting him try to develop a weapon.
I think he's better than Luke French, but that's not saying a lot.  His arsenal looks very "visible" to opposing batters.  Maybe he'll prove to have ridiculous control and his smoke and mirrors will have an edge to it. But it looked really soft and fluffy from here.
Between him and Beavan...I like Erasmo.  And I still think Carraway's a dark horse as a guy who doesn't have an out pitch but has increasing mastery of every pitch he does throw.
I'm just glad the Tony Vasquez type is no longer the top pitcher in our system.  It's nice to have a pipeline where we can pass on these #6 starters without worrying about our #7 and #8 starters imploding.
Cha Seung-Baek, Aaron Looper and Jesse Foppert need no longer apply.
~G

I expect to trade League at the deadline next year, but neither Ruffin nor Lueke looks ready to assume the closing mantle just yet so I could see bringing League around for another go this offseason.  If not, we're gonna use most of his money on another vet or two for the pen anyway, so it's not money that's the issue - it's "what can League bring us in prospects."  Apparently at this trade deadline, the answer was, "not enough."  Maybe the winter will provide a better reward scenario, but usually for guys like closers it's the middle of the season when you want the hot arm.
Vargas could go, but doesn't HAVE to at this point.  If we're going cheap in FA then we have plenty of money for Vargas and League.  Moving both of them would indicate to me that we're spending more money in FA than I expect, and I might get giddy at the idea of signing one of Jack's former draft choices. 
Otherwise, Vargas is a 4 million dollar insurance policy against the kids in the rotation imploding, which is half the price of our Washburn or Batista insurance policies.  Not a huge bargain, but far more reasonable, especially since it's only for a season.
I'd rather sign Fielder and ditch Vargas, so I'm looking for him to go, too. ;)
~G

I have trouble buying the non-tender simply because Jack doesn't give away things that have value for nothing.  If Vargas is non-tendered he will be picked up by another team immediately and start in their rotation April 2012.  
If we have already decided we're gonna non-tender him then we'd just trade him to a team with a starting need down the stretch for a b-level prospect just to get something.
I don't see the non-tender.  Trade?  Maybe.  Non-tender?  Like you said, he's been outperforming his paycheck, and a team like KC might literally kill for a starter with an ERA+ higher than 80 to help out their offense.  Doesn't make a lot of sense to me to give another team a free gift.  Maybe Jason's sources are right, but it would be out of character for Jack to waste even a small return.
And that's not counting the value to OUR team of a starter who can throw 180+ innings of 4 ERA ball, which is what Vargas has done for the last 2 years.  Bedard hasn't.  Kelley hasn't.  Nor RRS nor Luke French nor any other would-be or might-have-been who has tried to angle for his job.  What do you do if Paxton can't, or Beavan implodes?
Wasting resources is not Jack's MO.  Vargas might not be here, but I don't think it'll be due to a non-tender.  No way.
~G

Until this year Erasmo was throwing 88-91.  This year he's throwing 91-94 late into games, while maintaining most of his ridiculous control.
Fister, minors: 10.3 hits, 6.6 K / 2.1 BB (3:1 ratio)
Erasmo, minors:  8.7 hits, 7.1 K / 1.7 BB (5.5:1)
Erasmo, this year: 10.6 hits, 7.9 K / 2.5 BB
Ramirez is trying to figure out how to attack hitters who can hit offspeed stuff (he jumped from A ball to AA this year, skipping high A completely, then got promoted to AAA) WHILE changing his arsenal to having a decent fastball.  His line is in major flux as he works on his game.
I don't think he's ready for the bigs.  I want him in Tacoma re-figuring out pitch sequences, how to use his faster fastball to his advantage, when to throw in the zone and when to stay out of it...but the Ms might decide the only place to do that is in the majors and let him take a stab at it.
Fister was 27 when his arsenal improved.  Erasmo turned 21 during the season.  If you wanted one guy the minors who had a Brad Radke line and arsenal who could use it against higher levels, I would have given you Erasmo.  And people forget that Radke used to throw 90+ when he came up at around Erasmo's age.  He lost a little in velocity and gained quite a bit in guile, but he could always put that fastball where he wanted it. We won't know if Ramirez can do that until he gets to face big-leaguers with a more controlled strike zone, but I'm not betting against him.
I'm still very high on Erasmo as a Fister-like control pitcher who can work in the zone instead of only on its edges.  
He doesn't have that over-the-top thing working for him, but with a little more time in the oven he could come out nice.
~G

I watched Erasmo give up 9 runs in his last start, and still came away pretty impressed...while thinking he needs another pitch to be successful in the bigs.
The good:
- Velocity.  He was lighting up the gun from 90-95, mostly 92-93.  His 2nd to last pitch was 95 on the stadium radar, and we confirmed with scouts behind the plate that it was accurate. He's diminutive, but he's got plenty of stamina and more heat than he was previously given credit for.  His change-speed game came in from 78-82.  He can REALLY slow it down when he wants to.
- Mechanics.  He's got a smooth motion, but throws the ball from beside his earhole a la a RH Sherrill, sometimes dropping to a low 3/4 for fun.  Velocity doesn't change between the windup and the stretch, so that's good.  Very repeatable, and he pounded the zone all night.
- Attitude.  He's a bulldog.  He refuses to give in or change what he's doing out of fear.  He keeps coming after hitters, sometimes to his detriment, but he's a light-hearted kid right before the game and a non-smiling attack dog during it.  I like it.
The Bad:
- He got shelled.  I mean, they didn't mis-swing on a fastball all night.  Either he was tipping or they just sat dead red because the only poorly hit balls were on 78 mph junk. His fastball was 94 and getting hammered all over the field for extra bases at every opportunity.  Control but not command? I wasn't behind the plate enough to see where the glove was held compared to where the pitch ended up or if he was just hurling it belt-high over the plate, but even when we got back there they were taking outside-edge pitches into the gaps.  Could have just been bad luck...
- Fastball has a touch of armside run but is mostly straight.  It doesn't matter how much velocity it has if it's really easy to hit, and that outing it was a cinch.  Normally an armslot like his is designed to get movement - you throw a two-seamer out of it.  He was throwing a 4-seamer, and with him being all of 5'9 or so that ball apparently came out easy to spot.  We moved behind the plate for a couple of innings and it doesn't appear that he shows the ball early - it just appears when it leaves his hand, like a magic trick, but they could tell you exactly how he was pulling that rabbit out of the hat.
- He either didn't have breaking stuff or didn't trust it, and the game-calling sucked.  It was at altitude, so breaking balls don't break well, but he could have thrown his changeup more.  He didn't.  Now, I knew that about him - the Radke comparison wasn't out of nowhere, and Radke threw half or more fastballs, with a relatively even mix between change and curve after that, as I recall.  But without something to change the hitter's eye it was "straight and fast" or "straight and slow" with the vast majority being the former, not the latter.  He needed to pitch backward and didn't, and you could tell from the first inning.  Dunno if it was his fault or the catcher, but it wasn't a good gameplan.
The Solution:
- Teach him a 2-seamer or a split-finger.  When I saw his slurvy thing before it wasn't impressive, and he's built for throwing fastballs.  So let him - but he needs to change eye-level.  He can beat them with the 4-seamer if they don't know what plane it's on.  And his armslot is built for a sinkerball which apparently he doesn't have.
We'll see.  Pitchers have off nights.  Guys get hammered.  I liked a lot of what I saw from Erasmo, but his FB is like Baek-straight, and he shows Baek's reluctance to be forced into a Plan B, or out of the zone.
If the altitude robbed him of movement on his FB and the ability to throw his breaking pitch, he wouldn't be the first to have that problem.  Hitters tend to sit FB at this altitude because of that.
But I'd look at getting him a split-finger.  He could be ruthless with that pitch.  Everyday Eddie could teach him the fork, right?  He's not doing anything...
Because a change-speed game alone only works if you're willing to throw the changeup a whole lot more than Erasmo does.  Change eye level, make them worry about the whole zone..or perish.
So I still say pre-2011 Fister / non-curveball Brad Radke. Get the kid a diving pitch and let him work.
~G

...about Tony Vasquez.  He doesn't have a weapon.  He's gonna get shelled anytime his command is not blisteringly precise.
I'm with you Doc - two starts are 2 more than I needed to see. September is here now - please demote Vasquez and start rotating other pitchers through.
Unless we're trying to make sure we keep a top-5 pick, I guess.  That's not a terrible idea...
~G

But Erasmo's is moving out of the sweet spot, as far as I can tell, as his fastball velo increases. 
When he throws a change at 78 and a FB at 94 he's moved past the 9-to-11 mph difference you would prefer to see between one and the other for "optimum" results.  Most guys with that big a MPH difference have it on their curveball, which is changing eye level as well.  With a changeup, there is such a thing as too slow compared to FB speed.  If the hitter can tell it's not the fastball, then he won't swing through it.
We'll see - like I said, I think he's still working out how to get the most out of his increased heat and what changes he needs to make in his game.
Tonight, he was fine.
6 IP, 2 hits (1 HR), 2 runs, 7K/1BB, 97 pitches with 66 for strikes.  
Luckily he doesn't have Snell's personality.  He's far tougher on the mound and little things like getting rocked don't knock him off his game.
I'd have him try the split, but when he can paint that fastball and throw just enough off-speed stuff, he's pretty dangerous.  He's 6 months younger than Hultzen, remember, and I believe the youngest starter in the league. He can ripen a little.  I still really like what he could be.
Best thing to happen to him might be to hang around Hultzen when Danny's in town, see if he can pick up a better grip on his slider or something.  The plateau Erasmo has to jump is crucial but not huge.  Luckily for us, he doesn't have to be ready now.
~G

Updated at mlbtraderumors.com right here.
Looks like we could be anywhere from 2-10, but 3-6 is pretty likely.
Anyone up for an athletic LH-hitting OF with speed and power? Who was 6-3, 195 as a HS junior?
But maybe we only draft pitchers now.

...based on the list I pulled.  Of those guys, only 5 throw the changeup more than 10% of the time.
Those 5 are:  David Price (11.3%), Max Scherzer (20.3%), Jeremy Hellickson (31.9%), Jake Westbrook (10.7%), and Jered Weaver (14.3%).
Hellickson, Weaver, and Price are top-10 in changeup value (quick glance), Scherzer and Westbrook are still plus with the pitch value.
So the broad picture is: having a huge differential and having it be a useful part of your arsenal is not unheard of, but only the best tend to get away with it and can use it as a weapon.
BTW, Erasmo's first inning velocities when he was getting shelled on 8/25: 91, 83, 92, 81, 91, 94, 80, 81, 91, 91, 93, 93, 92, 78 (HR), 92, 91, 83, 90, 95, 92, 81, 86, 85, 79, 92, 94, 92, 83, 91, 92.
Average: 92 MPH fastball, thrown 64% of the time.  I didn't keep pitch velocities the whole game, but the first inning is interesting.  And he'll be better with better fielders behind him - his FIP is far lower than his ERA this year.
I like him more than Beavan or Vasquez.  We'll see how the Ms feel in Spring Training.
~G

I'm lookin' at Nick Williams, but not as my first choice for HS guy.  Or even my first Williams.
Three other hitters I'm watching:
Victor Roache, the raw 1B/OF crusher who hit 30 bombs with the new bats last year, out-homering 200+ teams BY HIMSELF.  Fast-forward to 0:45 of the clip, and see if you like his bat speed with wood.  I do.  It's a Bubba Starling swing.
Trey Williams, HS 3B.  Speaking of bat speed...yeah.  Just watch his HR derby swing and ask me if you want to see that guy crushing bombs for you.  This is Nick Williams at the same HR derby.  See how much harder Nick is working than Trey?
James Ramsey,  RF/CF at FSU.  He crushed it in the regular season, and in the Cape Cod, and if he can hang in CF then look out.  He's a leader (gonna be the first guy in 4 decades to wear the captain's C on his jersey for FSU) and an ultra-competitor.  We could do worse.
But you're right, we'll probably go with another arm just to irritate me. ;)
~G