Q. Where is SSI on the issue of Safeco-vs-left-center power?
A. I've attended at Oakland-Alameda. The park plays very similarly to Safeco, for lefty use-all-fields guys like Cust.
Cust won't really be changing fields. He'll be in pretty much the same park, to him.
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Q. Assuming his back and shoulder are okay, what are the UP, MID, and DWN scenarios for Cust in 2011?
20% DISASTER: Cust gets hurt, and/or hits the wall in mystical Bradley / Junior / Everybody fashion -- so the M's powerflush him and move on to the kiddies. No problemo.
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20% DWN: He expands his strike zone, continues to age, the Mariners use him against LHP's ... and he produces "only" 5.0, 5.5 runs in Safeco.
Giving the Mariners a lefty version of the Good Mike Sweeney. In this variation, Cust is still the M's 2nd-best hitter after Ichiro.
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35% MID: Cust plays 120 games in a rotation, mostly against RHP's. With the A's off his back, he relaxes into a hybrid pitch-stalking game that is halfway between 2008 and 2010.
He hits about .250/.360/.460 with 20-25 homers in 120 games, creates 6.0, 6.5 runs, and gives the Mariners a serviceable #4 type hitter.
That would be my 'community projection.' Yes, I'm confident in the guy. He can take a pitch, and he can punish a mistake. His skills aren't going to vanish overnight.
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25% UP: With the change of scenery: Cust relaxes into his pitch-stalking and reprises 2007-08. As the M's best hitter, he gets in 140-150 games, hits 30 homers with 90 walks, and pushes his OPS up near 900.
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In almost every variation, the Mariners secure a cleanup hitter, or a facsimile thereof. ... Hey, like we sez, Russell Branyan was all we needed as a cleanup hitter in 2009, when we won 85-90. So I'm psyched.
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Q. Cumulative effect, Olivo and Cust?
A. Cust gives, in effect, +20 to +30 runs. I'll take it. All day long.
And not just +25 on paper; Jack Cust, on the field, gives you a steady flow of real walks and real homers. That's a real nice bandaid on the 2010 bleedin', right there.
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The 2010 Mariners were a chalk outline on the sidewalk, at catcher. Just being decent, Olivo gives them 20, 30 runs there too.
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Two horrible black holes, upgraded by 2-3 wins each .... for a grand total of $6M in salary. Nice start. Now what about that Rasmus or Grienke move?
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Kudos,
Dr D