How Much Value If They Never Run?

This article gives the league average in passed balls as 11-12 per season per team.  Fangraphs has it as about 15-17 per team (see next paragraph).

This article states that there are 4x as many WP's as passed balls. This is corroborated by b-ref.com's team totals, which was 59.7 per team last season.

Fangraphs gives Olivo's PB+WP total as only 13 last season, and only 10 the year before -- both times catching about 70% of his team's games. 

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I'm sure I'm missing something here, because Olivo can't have a PB+WP total that is only 30% of league average.

However, it certainly isn't clear why posters deducted half of Olivo's +11 runs saved in 2010 (via SB/CS) because of supposedly terrible PB+CS totals.

Before we retreat to "well, he used to be worse," can somebody explain why Olivo's 2010 defense is being docked for PB's and WP's?  Am not sure where we're disconnecting here.  Fangraphs' PB and WP totals for Olivo must be off?

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Edit to add, a glance at Fangraphs' leaderboard for PB's and WP's shows that they credit catchers with very few PB's and WP's, relative to team totals.

I don't know why this is, but will cheerfully acknowledge that Olivo allows about 5 more PB+WPs than average.  At 0.27 runs per, that's 1.3 runs a season.

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=== A Saber Absurdity ===

Asking him to repeat '10s CS% and also high attempt% from the baserunners isn't very realistic though IMO.

No, but as we all know, Olivo's career CS% is much better than break-even for the defense.

The general premise here is:  If 66 steals and 33 caught stealings are a wash for both sides --- > then a catcher who accomplishes that is doing nothing.   Only as he wipes net runners away, does he provide value.

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Let's look up from the spreadsheet a second (because we're starting with 0.0 SB runs as a zero-value result here).  Surely you don't regard it as valueless for an ML catcher to completely nuke the running game?

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We run into a saber paradox here.  Fangraphs gives 0.0 stolen base runs as, essentially, replacement level.

But what major league manager, over the last 100 years, would take Johnny Bench's arm as zero value -- simply because everybody stopped trying to steal?

Locking down the running game might look like 0 runs on paper.  It certainly isn't.  Not on the field.

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Cheerio,

Dr D

Comments

1
Taro's picture

Average for MLB in passed balls in '10 was 5.86 PBs per 900 IPs caught.
Olivo averages 10.93 PBs per 900 IPs.
He averages about 5 more PBs per year than average.

2
Taro's picture

Furthermore, on CS:
The average number CS per 900 IPS is 23.46.
Olivo averages 23.92 CSs per 900 IPs.
Olivo has a career 7% better than average CS%, but not as many guys run on him as a result (diminishing the benefit).
Bref and Fangraphs both account for the runs gained in holding runners though, although its a small amount.
When you take the PBs into consideration, Olivo is pretty much a league-average defender.

4

'Not as many guys run on him, diminishing the benefit' is true but not accurate.  The benefit is that he shuts down the running game.
................
What do you calculate Olivo's defensive run values as, in 2009 and 2010?
How do these compare to Adam Moore, Rob Johnson, and Victor Martinez?

5
Taro's picture

10.64 PBs per 900 IPs in '10 for Olivo.
He had a really good year in CS in '10 that gave him +6 runs overall. 31.76 CSs per 900 IPs.
Asking him to repeat '10s CS% and also high attempt% from the baserunners isn't very realistic though IMO.

6

For some reason, Fangraphs credits all catchers with many fewer PB/WPs than the team totals would suggest.
Right:  Olivo costs you about 5 passed balls + wild pitches a season.  1.3 runs.

7

Where are you getting 5 runs lost via PB and WP?

8
Taro's picture

He had a really poor defensive year in '09. Career worst 28 CS% and around same rate of PBs.
Olivo was overall -6 runs in '09 and +6 runs in '10. Over his career hes about average.

9

Asking him to repeat '10s CS% and also high attempt% from the baserunners isn't very realistic though IMO.

No, but as you know amigo, Olivo's career CS% is much better than break-even for the defense. 
Let's look up from the spreadsheet a second (because you're starting with 0.0 SB runs as a zero-value result here).  Surely you don't regard it as valueless for an ML catcher to completely nuke the running game?

10
Taro's picture

I don't, but Bref and Fangraphs seem to have different estimate of his Olivo's arm impact. Both seem to agree that hes around 2 runs above-average per season with just the arm, but Olivo's DRS is off the charts for fangraphs in '10.

11
Taro's picture

It has value, but hes not Ivan Rodriguez or even Kenji Johjima good with the arm. The PBs cancel out much of the benefit (which is small to start with).
Hes overall a handful of runs above-average career defensively, so if you want to call him +1 defensively I could buy it but hes definetly not a premium defender unless he continues his '10 CS% and raw CS.

12

Fangraphs gives -1.0 runs via SB and CS in 2009.
Can you show your math on the 5 runs via PB and WP?

13

You say that it has value Champ, but your arguments then revert to assuming 0.0 runs for the 33% CS rate.
Why do you compare him to two of the greatest catching arms of all time and then imply that his arm isn't that big a deal?  Ichiro has offensive value, but he's not Albert Pujols or even Lou Gehrig with the bat.
If a lockdown (0.0 SB runs) catcher is worth 10 or even 5 runs to an ML manager, this whole conversation changes, correct?
..................
Johjima-san was a tremendous shutdown catcher.  :- )  How's he doing now, by the way?

14
RockiesJeff's picture

Olivo in the beginning of last season earned the starter's job in Colorado by his own play and Iannetta's struggles. Olivo's arm looked bionic after watching Torrealba for a couple of seasons.
I believe a lot of those PB's came early. Olivo did struggle a lot the 2nd half. One has to wonder if he got worn down a bit.

15
Taro's picture

Right, but Bref doesn't give as many runs via CS in '10. I'd have to calculate out the run values for both, but I can't get myself to look up the run values and go through all that trouble right now..
I think a +1 run defensive C is reasonable, given thats around Olivo's career mark. Somewhere around average.

16
Taro's picture

Ya Doc, but the runs just don't add up.. Its kind of like a 30 SB guy with a 75% success rate.
It adds runs, but its not as significant unless you're stealing a huge amount in quantity or have a massive success rate.
Granted, Olivo did have a nice '10 defensively.

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