Seattle Sports Insider

SSI's Bullpen - Three No-Brainers

Posted by

3/23/11

=== Caveat 1 ===

It doesn't matter that much, which 7 guys you pick.

Well, you'd rather not pick a non-40-man guy for the 25-man ballclub if you didn't have to, because you'd have to let somebody go off of this list.

But what we mean is: the 7 guys you have on April 1 aren't going to be the same 7 guys you have on May 1. It's going to be a Tacoma carousel anyway. So don't over-stress about which back-end guys you start with.

=== Caveat 2 ===

Dr. D's coefficient of confidence on these guys is NOT real high.

It's not sort of high, either, and it's not halfway between high and low, and it's not medium-low. Our confidence level is "real low." As it relates to how likely it is that we're right about (say) Tom Wilhelmsen.

Michael Pineda, the coefficient of confidence there is "max." But Royce Ring and Luke French, nada.

We're just noodlin'.

=== Caveat 3 ===

Coupla guys that SSI hasn't triangulated at all, and who aren't considered, such as Cesar Jimenez. If one of these emerges it'll be a pleasant surprise from our vantage point.

Could happen.

=== No-Brainer #1 -- Brandon League ===

Even if he were "terrible," you'd still be married to him. He's not "terrible."

=== No-Brainer #2 -- Josh Lueke ===

One of the top 100 prospects in baseball. Has completely conquered AAA. Investing in him is the right thing to do, end of story. Move on.

=== No-Brainer #3 -- David Pauley ===

The only other pitcher in camp (outside the five SP's) who --- > you know can pitch effectively in the big leagues.

SSI would even consider him as a Ryan Franklin-esque "closer," since Pauley gives you strike one -- and then you reserve League's strikeout stuff for the fires you'll have to put out.

Beyond that, it gets real dicey. You've got two types of relievers after that ... no, not "roster" and "non-roster," Egbert. The two types of relievers are "known quantities" and "wild cards."

Jamey Wright, Royce Ring and Chris Ray are known quantities: they're dubious, fringe ML pitchers. But you do get a Stoploss with them: they'll fire ERA's in the neighborhood of 4.00 - 5.00, but they won't implode.

Luke French, Tom Wilhelmsen, and Cesar Jimenez are unknown quantities. They could be much better than the Fringe MLB(TM) Pitchers, and in fact down in Arizona are much better.

But Friday night against the Angels, you're leading 4-2 in Erikkk Bedard's start when he leaves after 5.2, and you bring in French and Wilhelmsen and Laffey and the score goes to 4-9 ... your entire season is suddenly a yawning mushroom cloud. What then?

Stoploss, security, safety, those things matter to GM's.

Daniel Cortes, Aaron Laffey and most of the others aren't worth consideration for ML service on April 1.

Comments

Lueke to DL or something, please

I was a big, big supporter of Lueke the player after what he did to the upper minors last year (as in, 94 K vs. 15 BB against 255 batters faced).
But I've followed the Gameday on every one of his outings, and if he's only throwing 1 mph harder than Doug Fister, then he's no relief ace. He doesn't have it, he's nibbling, missing the strike zone and getting crushed.
He was hitting 95 when he pitched in the big comeback game, but otherwise he's been more like 92.
They need to do something, though they're a little hamstrung on the 40-man roster until Aardsma comes back.

We need to put up a reward poster

"Missing: Lueke's 5 mph. Will reimburse handily."
I love Lueke. I think he'll be fine. But he won't be fine throwing 91. Guys who throw 91 know how to do it. Guys who throw 96 throw differently. When you go from 96 to 91 you have to change your approach, and Josh currently is not doing that.
He says he feels fine. Great, no soreness, it's just not there. And that it happened to him to start last year as well, and built back up over the year. He said maybe he just needs to throw year-round and not take time off because it apparently takes him too long to build it back up.
That doesn't help us - or him - this April, though. I don't mind sending him down to AAA for 6 weeks while we wait for the velocity and dominance to return.
In the meantime, who do you want? Chris Seddon's killing AAA (won PCL pitcher of the week) but he's not exactly a thunderous bullpen arm. French has been awful, as has Roe. Cortes has been surviving okay, but with his wildness he wouldn't be my first choice.
I would probably demote Lueke for a brief stint (and let him know it's a brief stint) as well - we just need to find a better replacement. Our bullpen cupboard is still pretty bare. How soon is Aardsma back?
~G

Ya, some no-brainer

Woulda taken Lueke north, but once he dropped to 91 mph, woulda dropped him just as quick as Wedge has...
the velo is not the only problem. His mechanics are dubious, his slider wild and his command isn't...
Aardsma sounds like he's virtually day-to-day... in the meantime, give Jamey Wright megaprops for savin' their bakin'...

No, it WAS a no-brainer

Based on what he did last year. His arm is not cooperating somehow, and trying to adjust while justifying being in the majors is messing him up more. But I think he'll have a chance to sort it out at Tacoma when Aardsma comes back.
Not giving up on him at all, but he is one of the bigger letdowns of the year.