Q. What did the mainframe's pattern-recog algorithm told us before, and what is it telling us now?
A. It crunched that the intersection of (1) the M's having the #2 pick, along with (2) there already being a super-dominant #1 choice in the field (Rendon), that...
(3) all the M's cared about was that some! super-athlete would emerge from The Field, and that this would probably occur.
Fate's mission accomplished. It's Rendon vs Cole for the #2 pick.
.
Q. Does SSI buy in to the idea that Rendon could fall even past the #2?
A. Of course not.
The ammy scouting world is a hyper-impressionable and overreacting bunch. We mean it in a good way.
No, that's not what we mean ... hey, you get ready for The Big Weekend Ballgame, and you go out there hoping to see something interesting to put in the scouting report, and then Game Time arrives, and the guy goes out and limps around, or whatever...
Field scouting is not conducive to the 30,000-foot view. You're not going to gear up for a single 3-game weekend, see something disappointing, and then report that it doesn't matter.
Cole's hot, Rendon's not. Doesn't affect who they are. Much.
.........
There aren't a lot of ballplayers who lost out on their careers because of bad ankles. MLB finds a way to keep hitters on the field.
Hey, back in the 1950's, Mickey Mantle scotch-taped his knees together before the ballgames. We don't have to tell you about Andre Dawson and Jim Edmonds and Ken Caminiti.
Rendon has painful feet, that's his problemo.
......
The noise about Rendon falling -- and the fact that Cole is the trendy choice for #1 -- is mostly just scouts being jittery. It won't matter in June.
Well, Rendon could fall past #1, since this is the Pirates, but not past #2.
.
Q. Which should the Mariners take?
A. :- )
One will be given to us, and it falls to the M's (and their fans) to simply enjoy the windfall.
That means --- > all debate is meaningless. No decision exists in Seattle.
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Q. :rolleyes: OK, which would SSI prefer?
A. It's tough... one of these guys will probably be Evan Longoria and the other Luke Hochevar, or one will be a Justin Verlander type and the other an Alex Gordon...
Historically, either scenario is very feasible, it seems to me.
It's not like you're going to be weighing Evan Longoria vs David Price. More likely, one of them will become a star and the other not, and the M's are just hoping against hope that they get the star.
..........
A Longoria lotto ticket is inherently more valuable than a Price lotto ticket. That's the default principle, unless something alters it.
.
.... continued ....
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Cole vs. Washington
9.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 10 K, 116 pitches
Rendon vs. Marshall
Played DH all 3 games
Fri 4-for-4 with 2 doubles and 1 walk
Sat 1-for-2 with 2 walks
Sun 0-for-1 with 4 walks
He's still stuck at 3 HR for the year, but obviously they aren't giving him much to hit. I guess 5 hits and 7 walks for a weekend is OK.
.364/.552/.579, 43 BB, 15 K
10 dbl, 2 tpl, 3 HR
43:15 for Rendon, eh. Awesome that he continues to refuse to swing at balls.
Just occurred that Rendon shares something else with Edgar: he'll start his career at 3B and there's the prospect that he'll move to 1B/DH, right?
No one questions his glove. In fact, scouts say he has "shortstop hands."
Same coach who said he's got "Hank Aaron wrists" says he's got "Mike Schmidt defense." That was -- let's see -- 10 Gold Gloves in 11 seasons. Guess that'll do, defense lovers? :-)
Shoulder strain is supposedly not a lasting deal, but it has lingered a lot longer than folks were led to expect.
Just long enough for Rendon to slip to #2. :-)
Seriously, things couldn't be going better right now.
Ya Champ... of the last 12 coin fiips (Draft pick, Bedard, MB, Smoak, Olivo etc) we've had like 10-11 of them come up heads...
vs. Washington State
9.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 113 Pitches
Getting to be like clockwork.
Rendon still at DH, had a hit and 2 more walks.
All of Rendon's hits for the week were singles.
Tuesday: 1-for-3 with a walk, no Ks.
Friday: 0-for-3 with a walk and a K.
Saturday: 0-for-3 with a walk, no Ks.
Sunday: 2-for-3 with a walk, no Ks, and 3 runs scored.
Current line: .349/.553/.527 with 57 BB and 21K in 40 games. 10 2B, 2 3B and still stuck on 3 HRs.
He was 3rd in the country in OBP last week while being well into the hundreds in BA and SLG. He's giving the Pirates the ability to pass on him without looking entirely stupid. It's terrific.
Cole actually got hit and scored on quite a bit this week, though he still struck out a ton.
Cole: 8 IP, 9 hits, 5 runs (all earned), 11K/1BB
Cole for the year: 4-3, 2.22 ERA in 65 IP, 42 hits, 20 runs (16 ER), 75K/11BB.
He's being ridiculously outpitched by his teammate Trevor Bauer, I might add.
Bauer: 7-1, 1.47 ERA in 73.2 IP, 37 hits, 15 runs (12 ER), 110K/23BB.
Of Bauer, they say "has similar mechanics to Tim Lincecum"" (yes this means he's also shortish for a pro pitcher at 6'1 or so), with a low 90s 2 seamer and a 4-seam that can hit 96 with movement, and an improving curveball that should be another plus pitch.
I'm actually really fond of him. Here's some video: http://baseballbeginnings.com/2010/06/26/trevor-bauer-video-2
I'm telling you, a LOT of teams are gonna get interesting pitchers in this draft. Bauer should be top 10, and I could still see Hultzen going top 2 in some scenarios.
Should be fun, though for us the rest of the fun doesn't start til later than I'd like. No supplementals for us.
Still, there will be quality talent there to be had. I'm wondering if we'll double up and go for a great high-schooler in the 2nd and try to buy him out of his commit. Charlie Tilson comes to mind as a Mariners sort of pick: Good tools but not jaw-dropping, non-baseball factory high school, does everything well, huge makeup bonuses. In other words, lots more to go get in his potential and the personality to get it.
I could see us taking him if he's there in the 2nd, definitely.
Til then, we still get to debate Cole vs. Rendon, and whether Hultzen or anyone else should be in the conversation.
~G
Remember how incensed you were that the Ms would draft Morrow over Lincecum when Timmy was literally twice the pitcher Morrow was against the same hitters?
Similar thing with Bauer versus Cole. Bauer set the school K record and led the nation with 165 strikeouts, and has outpitched him 2 years running, basically. He doesn't have the frame or the top-end MPH that Cole does, and Cole's secondary stuff is apparently getting much better...but Bauer is mulching the same hitters more often than Gerrit is. He struck out 11.3 per 9 last year, and 13.5 this year. His K:BB was 4.0 last year when the bats were unchanged, and is closer to 5.0 this year.
And he's an absolute character with his own ideas on how to do things. http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/17/sports/la-sp-0218-trevor-bauer-2...
I really do love him. If the Mariners drafted him OVER Cole I would not be upset, I would be extremely interested. He and Hultzen are the two pitchers I find most intriguing out of the non-Cole guys.
~G
It's your call at #2, and Rendon's gone. You take Bauer or Cole?
... and maybe if you get time, you could explain where Bauer's K's come from, and whether his game translates. Big thing with Lincecum was that everything he did translated *better* to the majors than to the lower-level game...
Bauer throws low 90s with good deception. Supposedly moves toward the plate which adds velocity.
Hes not Tim Lincecum, but will probably go top 10 and could be top 5 in value.
Gracias, but does that fully explain a sky-high K rate?
:taps chin:
Supposedly a guy that picks up new pitches really quick and has a very fast delivery that adds to his deception. 13.44 K/9. 2nd in Division 1 by a pretty good margin.
?Throws his slider a TON according to scouting reports. That explains the high K/9. Command below-average.
I like Bauer.. Hultzen is intruiging. LHP with an above-average fastball, plus changeup, a slider, and command. Really interested why the scouting reports aren't more glowing with a 14.53 K/9 that blows every one else away this year. Thats better than Lincecum's walk year.
Sometimes it takes a while for the scouting reports to update on a player that has improved his tools. Hulzen was high 80s before this year.
I'm not against any of the others, but . . . I fear we might be getting a little "Flavor of the Month-y"
Cole was identified as a "special talent" top-of-the-draft arm as a teenager. He dropped to the Yanks at #28 only because he made it clear it was big money or UCLA, and he followed through on that.
Cole has done nothing in college but reinforce the notion that he has big-time talent.
Year
IP
ERA
H/9
HR/9
BB/9
K/9
Frosh
85.0
3.49
6.0
1.1
4.0
11.0
Soph
123.0
3.37
6.7
0.3
3.8
11.2
Jr (to date)
65.0
2.22
5.8
0.6
1.5
10.4
Have Bauer and Hultzen made plateau-leaps? Sure. But Cole has too. He's cut his walks in half. He's reportedly using an effective change. He's reportedly much more mature about slicing up lineups rather than just out-muscling them.
And there's also the advantage of the guy who's already been on a big stage. Pitched in the College World Series with the ESPN national cameras and rung up 13 K in 8.0 IP. Got the start against Cuba in the Collegiate world championship final game: 7.0 IP, 0 ER.
To my mind, he started the year with the best upside and as the best percentage play among the pitchers, and I think he still is. The other guys are intriguing, but not enough, to me, to pass on Cole.
How good does Hultzen have to be to go #1 and for the Pirates to not have to worry about the Boras factor? I'm starting to think that at least Hultzen (if not others) may be there already. If you are getting 90%+ of Cole with upside and a LH and can probably get him signed quickly for slot? That pushes the risk/reward meter way in Hultzen's favor, IMO.
Stay tuned Ms fans, I have a feeling the Ms might have to actually make a choice of Rendon OR Cole at #2.
My $.02.
~BG
Cole gives up 6 ERs in 6.1 IPS with 1K.
Bummer, because its the type of start that makes it far less likely for Rendon to drop to us..
2.76 ERA
9.59 K/9
1.51 BB/9
0.76 HR/9
Cole does not rank in the top 50 in ANY category in Division 1.
You have to wonder if Cole is a wise choice at #2. He may have great stuff, but the performance has really not been that impressive considering the new bats. The college SP that became stars at the MLB-level nearly ALL run 13+ K/9s in their walk years. Cole is under 10 with the new bats.
College SP has the by far worst WAR payoff than any other type of prospect. Hitters (College+highschool) are far more reliable, and even highscool SP has a higher turnout.
Bauer does seem to have sort of has a cork screw delivery similar to Lincecum to generate a little more power, but with a bit of a shorter stride. It looks like he reaches behind his back on the delivery. While Tim was kind of slung down low and the ball came from behind his knee. I read an interesting article on Bauer, and he films all of his bull pen sessions specifically to check his release point which is a little more difficult to perfect with his type of delivery. Very dedicated kid.
Cole on the other hand tends to reach behind his head to get the extra zip on the ball. Not sure if that is a knock on him, but I'd wonder if it could lead to shoulder problems.
Archive digging and trying to separate grain from chaff, Cole is supposed to be the more polished player of the two. Scouts say Cole has flashed plus plus on all three of his pitches. Slider, change, and fast ball, depending on which scout you listen to and which day they we're at the game. So it's probably safe to say that all three are very legit weapens. I like his slider. Hitters tend to walk away shaking their heads and talking to their bat. Most are saying Cole is polished enough to translate almost immediately to the bigs.
It does however resemble a scary Morrow vs. Lincecum senario. I can already hear the shrieks and nails down the chalkboard. Bauer's stock has risen since last year.
Oh and one other thing, I believe Cole has two different sliders. A tight slider he can use in on lefties. And a frisbee style he can use away on righties.
Cole has been a highly ranked pitcher by scouts since high school because he throws mid-90s and can get up to 99.
He still throws mid-90s. No one is saying he's lost his stuff.
Rather, scouts say his change has improved from average to above-average, giving him two solid offspeed pitches to go with his mid-90s fastball.
In other words, the toolbox is bigger than anyone else's. The ceiling is higher. That's why the scouts had him as the #1 college pitcher and had him as an upper-first-round pitcher in high school. Mid-90s, not overly wild, solid offspeed stuff = recipe for MLB success.
Now, as to the performance: 1.51 BB/9. I know for a fact that at least 2 of his 12 walks were intentional. The UCLA site doesn't break it down, but I was following his game against Nebraska on the radio. A guy reached base and was bunted to third in the bottom of the 9th of a tie game, so Cole IBB'd the next two guys to set up the force. His "real" BB/9 is more like 1.2 or even lower.
That is a huge drop in walk rate from the approx. 4 BB/9 in his prior years. It doesn't bother me at all that he's not striking out 13 K/9 when he's become much more efficient and is breezing through 9 innings on 100 or so pitches.
In the draft you have to play the percentages. Of all the college pitchers, Cole has the highest ceiling and the highest chance of reaching it.
I understand the argument about not wanting a college pitcher, but if it's going to be a college pitcher, I want Cole. Doesn't mean I don't like the other guys, too. I just think Cole is the best bet at #2. Just my view.
You'd be with the consensus. Cole supposedly sits 93-96mph. While thats an impressive fastball (would rank him top 10 in MLB), its not Strasburg-level. Still, if velocity is all you're looking for, there are guys that throw that hard every year.
With so many plus pitches and great command, why is Cole striking out less than 10 college hitters per 9IPs (not even top 60)? Why is he giving up a decent amount of HRs? Why is his ERA not even in the TOP 100 right now?
I like him as a prospect, but the performance is too mediocre for me to be sold on him at #2 right now. The BB rate is nice, but a lot of guys are running low BB rates this year and given the rate of hits+XBHs it doesn't look like he has command. Cole doesn't rank top 50 in ANY rate category including BB/9, and hes a guy that could get picked in the top 2.
It would be drafting completely based on tools and projection. If we're going to go that route, I'd rather gamble on a highschool hitter. The odds are better because theres less injury-risk/flame-out risk. If we're drafting a college pitcher, I would really rather take a crack at Hulzten or even Bauer at this point.
Hultzen showing less velocity in his latest start according to scouting reports.
7 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K’s
Not a terrible line, but the velocity loss is something to look out for in his next start as perhaps he won't have the stamina to last with 5 days rest and a longer season.
Bauer had 17Ks yesterday.
Bauer may be the safest SP option right now, but if Rendon doesn't drop I wouldn't mind the M's going after a highschool hitter either. Theres still a lot that can change in a month.