............

Howard, I thought the Pineda, Fister, and Bedard deals had those 700 runs locked in for sure.

............

The M's press box notes can be found here...

Jason Vargas has seen his offense get locked down in 11 of his last 16 starts, and 20 of his last 33.  "Locked down" meaning that his team finished with 2, 1, or 0 runs.  It's not at all unlikely tonight:  Brandon McCarthy had the #1 FIP in the American League in 2011.

It turned out that the M's took Dr. D's advice and shed Kuo and Kelley.  Remaining is George Sherrill and his $1.1M.  The bullpen:

• CONTENDER CLASS:  closer SrFrBoi43, setup Capt. Insano
• ROTATION CLASS:  #6 SP Iwakuma, #7 SP Erasmo, both throwing well
• BACK UP TWO STEPS:  LH Sherrill, LH Luetge, RH Delabar

Delabar and Luetge over everybody else, huh.  That is quite an endorsement by Capt. Jack.

.

=== Various and Sundry, Dept. ===

Over-writing the previous SSI pregame for the season opener...

Chone Figgins drew lots of walks in ST and had a .371 OBP.  He had one game leadoff in 2011, and swung the bat with enthusiasm.  I'll be watching to see if he accelerates the bathead and looks like he's having fun out there.  In Japan, Figgy was not off to a real good SSI start.

Mike Carp needs only to dial the EYE back up to 0.40 to become a minor star in the big leagues; his average HR was 413 feet last year.  This guy can hit tape-measure shots now, but he'll consolidate those gains if he can do so while keeping a reasonable EYE.  In spring training, he did not, walking 2 times vs. 13 strikeouts.  I'll scope out his swinging strikes, especially outside the zone.  

In Japan, Carp was "pressing" as G aptly put it.  In his place for a few weeks will be Kyle Seager.  If Seager puts the Wally Pipp on him, it will be cool by M's fans - Seager's new power swing is here to stay.  Whether the kinetic energy will translate into real game doubles and homers, we'll see.  In Arizona, he looked like Don Mattingly.

Michael Saunders' best swings came when he did NOT clear the hips through and did NOT follow through in a blossomy way - the 60-oz bat swing.  We want to see the same swing.  In Japan, it looked like he was at about 80% on the 60OZ-o-meter.  

Finished ST with three hits.  Go baby.

Justin Smoak would do well to let the ball drive deep into the zone, get a good look, and then hit it hard up the middle and the other way.  He doesn't have to do that every game, but one thing is clear:  left hand, his timing is the key.  Lefthanded, he gets greedy and gets too far out in front.  

Smoak's swing was gorgeous in Japan.  Let's see him carry the M's in April, what say?

Brendan Ryan, we'll get to enjoy that newfound play-from-the-hole insight that we have, courtesy of John Dewan.  Maybe Ryan will kill an inning with that play tonight.  If so, we are fully entitled to bask in his glory.  

Eric Wedge froze out Munenori Kawasaki in Japan, despite Kawasaki actually winning the Cactus League and Grapefruit League batting title.  There's some MLB(TM) entitlement for yer.  Ryan is a de facto captain of this ballclub.

Ackley and Montero, we've noticed this week that everybody is ga-ga over those two.  All the pundits on Prospect Insider are calling 30 homers, Pro Ball NW is doing an Adrian Beltre happy-feet dance in jittery need for him to excel, and the national talking heads are calling Rookie of the Year, with gusto.  Nuff said 'round the block, without me piling on.  Montero's inside-out swing is well suited to dealing with McCarthy's groundball game.  

We have said that Ackley now has, pound for pound, THE hardest swing in major league baseball.  If he wanted to hit .280 with 34 home runs and a .530 slugging average, it would be okay with me.  

Jesus Montero ... Bill James estimates that a ballplayer needs 60-90 games to "adjust" to a new league full of pitchers, even assuming that he needs no development.  If Montero has a slow first half, it will mean nothing to me.

The M's defense, says John Dewan, is the #2 defense among 30 teams.  The A's are not known for their gloves.  Wonder if this will play in.  It's not impossible to beat Oakland, right?  Very often a difference in glovework is a contributing factor in their losses.  They were #25 in team UZR last season.

Game 1, as I recall, the defense stepped right in.  Chuck Knox used to say, in 16 games, we expect our special teams to win 2 games and not lose any .... Over the course of 19 games with the A's, it would be nice to see defense make the difference FOR, in 3-4 games, and AGAINST, only 1-2 games.

Ichiro will not be slapping the ball into the shortstop hole and tearing out of the box at 60 mph; he'll actually be trying to do major damage with his bat.  He always said he could hit 20-40 home runs if he wanted to.  Let's see him cut loose with some big swings in front of the starry-eyed mobs.

In Japan, Ichiro cut loose with more vigor on the swing, but paradoxically, was faster down the line.  He looked simply more vibrant, more electric, more dangerous.  It wasn't a Home Run IchiBabi, but it was a vintage 2004 Ichiro.  The city watches, as we find out whether Ichiro will bring his WBC/Tokyo Dome game back to the lethargic American fans.

Be afraid,

Dr D