Not that Edwin Jackson is the #1 target of the offseason ... but it is an interesting question whether the Bora$ factor rules Jackson out as a Mariners option.
As Sir Anthony would say, this is Mission Impossible. Difficult should be a walk in the park. ::winning smile:: ... is a Jackson contract extension (and therefore Tigers-Mariners deal) "difficult" or is it "impossible"?
Cool Papa with pointed commentary that deserves its own thread, especially because I'd like to see somebody chime in with data:
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CPB: There is absolutely no way that Boras will even consider a contract extension. Boras' number one rule, the Prime Directive that any player must agree to if they are going to hire him, is to go free agency as soon possible. That is where he can work his magic and secure a monster deal.
:raises eyebrow:
I took a little tubular around the internet, looking for Boras clients who were:
A first turn around the 'net didn't turn up any particular examples. The first half-a-dozen Boras clients we found, all waited for their contracts to expire before signing their next one.
Does anybody know of any cases in which an arb-eligible Boras client did not go into the free agent market at the first opportunity?
Here's an Oct. 2008 (or later) list of his clients, via MLBtraderumors.com:
Tony Abreu
Garret Anderson
Rick Ankiel
Jeff Baker
Josh Barfield
Carlos Beltran
Adrian Beltre
Hank Blalock
Chris Bootcheck
Julio Borbon
Willie Bloomquist
Chris Coghlan
Alex Cora
Joe Crede
Johnny Damon
Chris Davis
J.D. Drew
Stephen Drew
Jacoby Ellsbury
Prince Fielder
Eric Gagne
Carlos Gomez
Carlos Gonzalez
Mike Gonzalez
Craig Hansen
Luke Hochevar
Matt Holliday
Edwin Jackson
Andruw Jones
Jair Jurrjens
Ian Kennedy
Byung-Hyun Kim
Gerald Laird
Matt LaPorta
Jeff Larish
Kyle Lohse
Felipe Lopez
Rodrigo Lopez
Derek Lowe
Ryan Madson
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Kevin Millwood
Zach Miner
Xavier Nady
David Newhan
Magglio Ordonez
Micah Owings
Mike Pelfrey
Carlos Pena
Oliver Perez
Guillermo Quiroz
Manny Ramirez
Anthony Reyes
Alex Rodriguez
Ivan Rodriguez
Max Scherzer
Scott Schoeneweis
Bobby Seay
Ryan Spilborghs
Julian Tavarez
Taylor Teagarden
Mark Teixeira
Jason Varitek
Ron Villone
Jarrod Washburn
Jeff Weaver
Jered Weaver
Matt Wieters
Barry Zito
Boras has demonstrated his own financial acumen a dozen times over at this point. It's tough to believe that he would never pencil out the math and arrive at the conclusion that a young pitcher should avoid the risk and lock in his first $30-40m of wealth.
A lot can happen to Edwin Jackson in two years -- especially injury. But also including a downturn in his career. What if he takes an Erik Hanson career path from here? Bill James called Hanson the #3 pitcher in the AL after his 1990 season. Hanson simply threw his arm out and lost his stuff.
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The first $30-40m changes Jackson's life, security, and peace of mind, more than the next $3 billion would.
Of course, you could argue that Jackson's already going to pass the $10m mark in earnings with this arbitration award, and has hit this "permanent security" point already.
But I would question that. After taxes, lifestyle, and all the rest of it, I wonder whether Jackson would have more than $2-3m in his financial portfolio at the end of next season. Probably many athletes like him have less. It's nothing unusual for athletes who have made a boatload of money to be broke a few years after retirement. I'm skeptical that a first major arb award has that kind of effect.
I would think that it would be a guaranteed $7 + $10 + $12 + $12m deal -- $40m -- that would assure Jackson of being a rich man for life.
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The question is whether Boras sometimes does wrong to his arb clients, by passing up contract extensions so that he can go to war with the owners.
I'd like to know the answer to that.
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Maybe Boras has a sufficiently large client base that having no players sign away free agency years may be the most profitable approach on average. There will be many winners and a few big loosers, but Boras and his clients in aggregate win.
but if so, isn't that like saying ... on average, I would get the best results off the tee if I used a 3-iron every hole?
If on par-5's with wide fairways, I could do better with a 1-wood, why wouldn't I use different clubs on different holes?
I like your analogy, but Boras faces a much more difficult situation. In golf I believe that many times there isn't a lot of uncertainty about the club only the execution. In Boras' situation, both are unclear.
Let's look at some data. Albert Pujols made $14M last year while Texiera made $21M, even though Pujols is a far superior player -- by the tune of 9.5 WAR over the last three years. Pujols could probably be earning $10-15M a year more if he had gone to free agency.
If could quite possibly be that the cost of not having the Pujols of the world go to free agency exceeds the cost of having someone get hurt before they reach free agency. An oft injured, but talented, player like Nick Johnson still get $4-8M a year, so the cost is mostly in contract years.
And I can easily imagine Boras sitting in his deluxe chair, seething about (rare) Pujols situations he's found himself in.
So, you drove me back across the field quite a ways there :- )
You're smarter than Boras, Kelly. ...
You say,
If could quite possibly be that the cost of not having the Pujols of the world go to free agency exceeds the cost of having someone get hurt before they reach free agency.
In Edwin Jackson's specific case, right here right now, what is YOUR assessment? I'm GM and you're his agent. I offer you $7, $10, $11, $13m guaranteed. You take it (and your 5%, $2.05 million) or you roll the dice? Is it even a close call to you?
With *Jackson.*
Looks to me like the 4/$41 could easily turn out to be 4/$15 or 4/$20 if Jackson has a lousy year or two (much less, comes up with the ol' shoulder stiffness in June). And it's much harder to envision 4/$55m in any scenario.
The free agency is there after four years.
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Where am I going wrong w/r/t Edwin Jackson?
I encourage my client to take the offer. I think the key ingredient to understanding Boras and his appeal to players is that he's as competitive as they are.